GQG Partners (GQG) 78c
GQG was smacked ~20% on Wednesday after reporting ongoing large net outflows and ongoing poor performance - it's now a $2.3bn business that has dropped out of the ASX 200.
Our philosophy at Market Matters has always been around active management, and our income portfolio stays true to label. Combining an active approach to income producing equities, ETFs and listed Income Securities such as Hybrids, the portfolio will satisfy those looking for sustainable income with significantly less volatility than the market.
| Portfolio | 1M | 6M | 1y | 3y | 5y pa | ITD pa | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ACTIVE INCOME | 0.82% | 5.58% | 9.52% | 13.94% | 10.95% | 10.25% | 148.4% |
| RBA CASH RATE +4% | 0.69% | 4.16% | 8.08% | 7.86% | 6.91% | 5.64% | 66.8% |
| VALUE ADD | +0.13% | +1.42% | +1.44% | +6.08% | +4.04% | +4.61% | +81.6% |
* Inception date 05/07/2017
| CODE | NAME | WEIGHT (%) | RISK | TERM | BUY DATE | BUY PRICE ($) | LAST PRICE ($) | DIVIDENDS ($) | DAILY CHANGE (%) | GAIN / LOSS (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AGLACTIVE | AGL Energy | 4 | Moderate | Long | 23/02/2023 | 7.50 | 9.08 | 1.50 | 0.89 | 41.07 |
| AMCACTIVE | Amcor | 4 | Moderate | Medium | 27/10/2025 | 62.70 | 64.71 | 1.84 | -0.57 | 6.14 |
| ANZACTIVE | ANZ Group | 5 | Moderate | Medium | 18/12/2024 | 29.36 | 39.59 | 3.26 | -0.03 | 45.95 |
| AN3PIACTIVE | ANZ Capital Notes 6 | 6 | Low | Long | 8/07/2021 | 100.33 | 102.65 | 27.86 | 0.00 | 30.08 |
| APEACTIVE | Eagers Automotive | 2 | High | Medium | 28/10/2026 | 18.99 | 15.17 | -2.07 | -20.12 | |
| BHPACTIVE | BHP Group | 8 | Moderate | Long | 11/12/2019 | 40.38 | 58.86 | 19.39 | -1.26 | 93.78 |
| CLWACTIVE | Charter Hall Long Wale REIT | 4 | Moderate | Long | 06/05/2026 | 3.55 | 3.55 | 0.12 | -0.28 | 3.38 |
| DBIACTIVE | Dalrymple Bay Infrastructure | 4 | Moderate | Medium | 10/10/2024 | 3.37 | 5.64 | 0.46 | 0.18 | 81.01 |
| DN1ACTIVE | Dominion Income Trust 1 | 5 | Low | Medium | 18/06/2025 | 101.40 | 97.03 | 9.25 | -0.17 | 4.81 |
| KITACTIVE | Kapstream Investment Trust | 4 | Moderate | Long | 11/11/2026 | 1.73 | 1.78 | -0.84 | 2.89 | |
| MGRACTIVE | Mirvac | 5 | Moderate | Medium | 10/03/2026 | 1.85 | 1.94 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 7.57 |
| MTSACTIVE | Metcash | 4 | Moderate | Medium | 9/12/2020 | 3.50 | 3.41 | 1.41 | -1.16 | 37.71 |
| NABPIACTIVE | NAB Capital Notes 6 | 5 | Low | Long | 13/07/2022 | 98.94 | 104.35 | 30.33 | -0.70 | 36.12 |
| NHCACTIVE | New Hope Coal | 4 | High | Medium | 22/11/2022 | 5.55 | 5.23 | 2.40 | -0.95 | 37.48 |
| PCIACTIVE | Perpetual Credit Income Trust | 5 | Low | Long | 17/07/2024 | 1.11 | 1.09 | 0.16 | 0.00 | 12.16 |
| RIOACTIVE | Rio Tinto | 4 | Moderate | Medium | 28/10/2026 | 150.71 | 149.52 | -0.70 | -0.79 | |
| WBCACTIVE | Westpac | 5 | Moderate | Medium | 04/09/2026 | 35.01 | 37.83 | 1.10 | -0.47 | 11.20 |
| SOLACTIVE | Soul Pattinson (W.H) | 4 | Moderate | Long | 05/02/2026 | 37.68 | 48.29 | 1.58 | -1.15 | 32.35 |
| SUN | Suncorp Group | 5 | Moderate | Medium | 11/12/2025 | 17.07 | 20.59 | 1.00 | -0.15 | 26.48 |
| SUNPIACTIVE | Suncorp Hybrid | 5 | Low | Medium | 09/04/2024 | 101.51 | 102.87 | 7.78 | 0.29 | 9.00 |
| WBCPKACTIVE | Westpac Hybrid | 5 | Low | Long | 7/09/2022 | 100.40 | 103.55 | 27.92 | -0.59 | 30.95 |
Portfolio cash position: 3%
| Company code | STOCK NAME | ACTIVITY | RISK | TIME HORIZON | EXIT DATE | ENTRY PRICE ($) | CLOSE PRICE ($) | DIVIDENDS ($) | GAIN / LOSS (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| APE | Eagers Automotive | Trimmed 2% | Moderate | Medium | 11/11/2026 | 18.99 | 15.47 | 0.00 | -18.50 |
| GQG | GQG Partners | Sold 3% position | Moderate | Medium | 30/10/2026 | 1.75 | 0.96 | 0.21 | -33.10 |
| APA | APA Group | Sold 5% position | Moderate | Medium | 28/10/2026 | 9.82 | 11.23 | 1.44 | 29.02 |
| FMG | Fortescue Metals | Sold 4% position | Moderate | Medium | 28/10/2026 | 21.62 | 14.57 | 3.20 | -17.81 |
| JBH | JB Hi-Fi | Sold 4% position | Moderate | Medium | 18/08/2026 | 83.98 | 72.26 | 3.00 | -10.40 |
| CNI | Centuria Capital Group | Sold 4% position | Moderate | Medium | 06/05/2026 | 2.06 | 1.69 | 0.27 | -4.90 |
| SUL | Super Retail Group | Sold 4% position | Moderate | Medium | 26/02/2026 | 13.97 | 14.01 | 2.61 | 19.00 |
| DDR | Dicker Data | Sold 3% position | High | Medium | 21/01/2026 | 8.28 | 10.04 | 0.15 | 23.10 |
| SIQ | Smart Group | Sold 4% position | Moderate | Medium | 21/01/2026 | 7.65 | 8.75 | 0.25 | 17.60 |
| NSR | National Storage | Sold 5% position | Moderate | Long | 11/12/2025 | 2.28 | 2.79 | 0.11 | 27.20 |
| HLI | Helia Group | Sold 2.5% position | High | Medium | 27/10/2025 | 4.46 | 5.66 | 0.50 | 38.12 |
| MFG | Magellan Financial Group | Sold 4% position | High | Medium | 04/08/2025 | 8.17 | 10.34 | 26.56 | |
| MTS | Metcash | Trimmed 1% | Moderate | Medium | 03/07/2025 | 3.50 | 4.00 | 1.27 | 50.57 |
| CBA | Commonwealth Bank | Sold 5% position | Moderate | Medium | 03/07/2025 | 61.33 | 180.26 | 32.40 | 246.75 |
| TLS | Telstra Corp Ltd | Sold 5% position | Moderate | Medium | 18/04/2025 | 3.43 | 4.90 | 1.07 | 74.05 |
| CBAPG | Commonwealth Bank | Redeemed 5% position | Low | Long | 15/04/2025 | 100.00 | 100.00 | 41.26 | 41.26 |
| SIQ | Smart Group | Sold 4% position | Moderate | Medium | 19/02/2025 | 8.96 | 7.81 | 0.25 | -10.04 |
| CBA | Commonwealth Bank | Trimmed 1% | Moderate | Medium | 18/12/2024 | 61.33 | 159.96 | 28.19 | 206.77 |
| MFG | Magellan Financial Group | Sold 4% position | Moderate | Medium | 06/12/2024 | 9.42 | 11.22 | 0.43 | 23.67 |
| NAB | National Australia Bank | Sold 7% position | Moderate | Medium | 08/05/2024 | 29.64 | 35.06 | 2.39 | 26.35 |
| OZBD | Composite Bond ETF | Sold 5% position | Low | Long | 17/07/2024 | 45.28 | 44.04 | 3.07 | 4.04 |
| GSBG25 | Govt Bond | Sold 6% position | Low | Medium | 27/06/2024 | 100.54 | 99.80 | 5.41 | 4.64 |
| DXS | Dexus | Sold 4% position | Moderate | Medium | 16/05/2024 | 8.02 | 7.26 | 0.56 | -2.49 |
| NABPF | NAB Hybrid | Sold 5% position | Low | Long | 7/05/2024 | 100.00 | 106.46 | 27.61 | 34.07 |
| ORA | Orora | Sold 4% position | Moderate | Medium | 3/04/2024 | 2.56 | 2.24 | 0.05 | -10.55 |
| MFG | Magellan Financial Group | Sold 4% position | High | Medium | 08/01/2024 | 8.73 | 9.09 | 0.93 | 14.78 |
| WES | Wesfarmers Ltd | Sold 4% position | Moderate | Long | 16/11/2023 | 47.85 | 53.94 | 4.16 | 21.42 |
| GEM | G8 Education | Sold 3% position | Moderate | Medium | 22/08/2023 | 1.29 | 1.08 | 0.06 | -11.63 |
| PPT | Perpetual | Sold 4% position | Moderate | Medium | 27/06/2023 | 24.70 | 25.40 | 2.83 | |
| MXT | MCP Master Income Trust | Sold 5% position | Low | Long | 15/06/2023 | 2.00 | 1.91 | 0.49 | 20.00 |
| AGL | AGL Energy | Trimmed 1% | Moderate | Medium | 21/04/2023 | 6.95 | 8.59 | 23.60 | |
| TLS | Telstra Corp Ltd | Trimmed 2% | Moderate | Medium | 21/04/2023 | 3.43 | 4.27 | 0.30 | 33.24 |
| WES | Wesfarmers Ltd | Trimmed 2% | Moderate | Medium | 21/04/2023 | 47.85 | 52.01 | 2.69 | 14.32 |
| SGP | Stockland | Sold 4% position | Moderate | Medium | 08/02/2023 | 4.18 | 4.01 | 0.26 | 0.22 |
| PDL | Pendal Group | Sold 4% position | Moderate | Medium | 12/01/2023 | 4.20 | 3.61 | 1.67 | 25.71 |
| BHP | BHP Group | Trimmed 2% | Moderate | Long | 08/12/2022 | 38.56 | 46.42 | 10.16 | 46.73 |
| AGL | AGL Energy | Sold 3% position | Moderate | Medium | 08/12/2022 | 6.83 | 8.07 | 18.15 | |
| APA | APA Group | Sold 4% position | Moderate | Medium | 08/12/2022 | 9.75 | 11.03 | 13.12 | |
| SSM | Service Stream | Sold 4% position | High | Medium | 22/11/2022 | 1.57 | 0.745 | 0.05 | -49.20 |
| BOQ | Bank of QLD | Sold 6% position | Moderate | Medium | 17/08/2022 | 8.70 | 7.37 | 0.31 | -11.72 |
| APA | APA Group | Sold 4% position | Low | Medium | 10/08/2022 | 8.59 | 12.14 | 0.53 | 47.50 |
| CWNHB | Crown Resorts Hybrid | Sold 4% position | Moderate | Medium | 29/07/2022 | 98.26 | 102.75 | 3.02 | 7.64 |
| IFL | Inisgnia Financial | Sold 5% position | Moderate | Medium | 13/07/2022 | 3.59 | 2.73 | 0.40 | -12.81 |
| MFG | Magellan Financial Group | Sold 3% position | Moderate | Medium | 13/07/2022 | 33.85 | 12.15 | 1.57 | -59.47 |
| SIQ | Smart Group | Sold 5% position | Moderate | Medium | 13/07/2022 | 6.98 | 6.62 | 1.43 | 15.19 |
| WDS | Woodside | Sold 1% position | High | Medium | 15/06/2022 | 29.76 | 32.54 | 2.30 | 17.05 |
| IGL | IVE Group Ltd | Sold 3% position | Moderate | Medium | 11/05/2022 | 2.28 | 1.80 | 0.66 | 7.89 |
| AGL | AGL Energy | Sold 3% position | Moderate | Long | 03/05/2022 | 5.35 | 8.38 | 0.16 | 59.63 |
| NSR | National Storage REIT | Sold 4% position | Moderate | Medium | 13/04/2022 | 2.04 | 2.65 | 0.09 | 34.31 |
| XARO | ActiveX Ardea Real Outcome Bon | Sold 5% position | Low | Long | 13/04/2022 | 26.47 | 25.28 | 1.60 | 1.55 |
| AWC | Alumina Ltd | Sold 4% position | Moderate | Medium | 24/02/2022 | 2.20 | 1.95 | -11.36 | |
| DXS | Dexus | Sold 4% position | Low | Long | 25/11/2021 | 9.20 | 11.27 | 0.23 | 25.00 |
GQG was smacked ~20% on Wednesday after reporting ongoing large net outflows and ongoing poor performance - it's now a $2.3bn business that has dropped out of the ASX 200.
GQG -19.5%: remained under pressure after reporting another US$6.7bn of outflows in October, taking calendar-year outflows to US$32.9bn and reducing FUM from US$149.2bn to US$131.6bn. The more concerning part is that the outflows are now being compounded by weak performance, with GQG’s flagship Global Equity Fund falling 10.1% in October following an ill-timed rotation back into technology earlier this year – the reason we ultimately cut our losses on the stock.
We are making two changes to the Income portfolio today.
Suncorp (SUN) pushed to fresh 52-week highs yesterday, continuing its strong run as positive earnings revisions support the stock. Consensus FY27 EPS estimates have edged higher over the past three months, while recent industry data remains supportive for domestic general insurers, particularly around motor claims frequency and repair costs. The only issue is valuation – with SUN now trading on 17.1x forward earnings, putting it toward the expensive end of its recent range. The stock still offers a reasonable ~4.1% forward yield, with scope for earnings and dividends to grow if underwriting conditions remain favourable.
We only recently added Eagers Automotive (APE) to the Income Portfolio and unfortunately walked straight into an earnings downgrade. We initially viewed the subsequent sell-off as excessive given the quality of the business, strength of CanadaOne and continued growth from BYD, but the stock's failure to recover is telling us something. The fundamental momentum has clearly deteriorated with consensus forward EPS cut by around 11%. When earnings revisions are confirmed by price, we need to reduce exposure.
APE –13.22%: Was hit hard today after its trading update highlighted weaker Australian conditions and FY26 revenue guidance came in below expectations.
AMC –7.79%: Fell after delivering a mixed September-quarter result, with sales ahead of expectations but earnings slightly light and, more importantly, management cutting its near-term EPS guidance as higher energy and distribution costs bite.
WBC +1%: Delivered a largely in-line FY26 result, with softer net interest margins weighing on earnings, however it was the improved credit quality that stood out, providing some reassurance amid higher rates and pressure on borrowers.
GQG has been a poor performer over recent months, with weak investment performance driving persistent outflows and heaping pressure on the share price. We had been prepared to give GQG the benefit of the doubt for two reasons: 1. Its attractive dividend yield, and 2. Its differentiated positioning away from technology, which provided something of a hedge against the risk of the tech trade failing to live up to increasingly lofty expectations.
Metcash (MTS) offers the strongest value of the three major supermarkets trading on 13.1x forward earnings, roughly half Coles (COL) and Woolworths’ (WOW) multiples, with FY27 sales growth remaining positive across Food, Liquor and Hardware business, although weaker hardware margins, tobacco headwinds and cost inflation continue to pressure earnings.
MM is neutral towards GQG below 80c, at best
MM is negative on GQG
MM remain long and bullish SUN for now
MM plans to reduce our position in APE in the Income Portfolio
MM prefers AMC over ORA into 2027
MM is trimming APE in the Active Income Portfolio, reducing to a 2% target weighting~$15.40
MM is now neutral on AMC ~$63
MM views todays share price move as an overreaction
MM remains long and bullish WBC
MM is long and bullish on MTS for income
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