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Undervalued
Morningstar Quantitative Rating as of 11 NOV 2026.
Quantitative Equity Rating Methodology – view here
Five-star price 5.29 Fair value 6.10 One-star price 7.04
Morningstar Quantitative Rating as of 11 NOV 2026.
Morningstar Quantitative Rating as of 11 NOV 2026. The slider runs from the five-star price (5.29) to the one-star price (7.04).
| Ratios |
|---|
| Currency (Price/reporting): AUD/AUD |
| Exchange Rate: 1.0000 |
| Price - closing or last bid | 5.28 |
| Price - 12 month high | 6.61 |
| Price - 12 month low | 3.77 |
| Pricing date | 11 NOV 2026 |
| Volume - avg. trading volume for the last ten days | 3.87 |
| Market capitalization | 4,457.30 |
| 12 Month High price date | 15 SEP 2026 |
| 12 Month Low price date | 27 NOV 2025 |
| Volume - avg. trading volume for the last 3 months | 3.00 |
| Price - 1 Day % Change | -0.57% |
| Price - 13 week price percent change | -2.94% |
| Price - 26 week price percent change | 4.76% |
| Price - 5 Day % Change | -5.55% |
| Price - 52 week price percent change | 21.94% |
| Price - YTD price percent change | 31.02% |
| Price % Change Month To Date | -10.96% |
| EPS excluding extraordinary items - most recent fiscal year | 0.190 |
| EPS excluding extraordinary items - trailing 12 month | 0.190 |
| EPS Normalized - most recent fiscal year | 0.204 |
| Revenue/share - most recent fiscal year | 2.063 |
| Revenue/share - trailing 12 month | 2.063 |
| Book value per share - most recent fiscal year | 3.099 |
| Book value per share - most recent half-year | 3.099 |
| Book value (tangible) per share - most recent fiscal year | 3.030 |
| Book value (tangible) per share - most recent half-year | 3.030 |
| Cash per share - most recent fiscal year | 0.575 |
| Cash per share - most recent half-year | 0.575 |
| Cash Flow per share - most recent fiscal year | 0.666 |
| Cash Flow per share - trailing 12 month | 0.666 |
| Dividend per share - most recent fiscal year | — |
| Dividends per share - trailing 12 month | 0.400 |
| EBITD per share - trailing 12 month | 0.602 |
| EPS Basic excluding extraordinary items - most recent fiscal year | 0.191 |
| EPS Basic excluding extraordinary items - trailing 12 month | 0.191 |
| EPS including extraordinary items - most recent fiscal year | 0.191 |
| EPS including extraordinary items - trailing 12 month | 0.191 |
| Free Cash Flow per share - trailing 12 month | 0.437 |
| P/E excluding extraordinary items, most recent fiscal year | 27.79 |
| P/E Normalized, most recent fiscal year | 25.86 |
| Price to sales - most recent fiscal year | 2.56 |
| Price to Tangible Book - most fiscal year | 1.74 |
| Price to Free Cash Flow per Share - most recent fiscal year | 12.07 |
| Price to Cash Flow per share - trailing 12 month | 7.93 |
| Price to Book - most recent fiscal year | 1.70 |
| P/E excluding extraordinary items high, trailing 12 months | 35.64 |
| P/E excluding extraordinary items low, trailing 12 months | 7.58 |
| Net Debt, LFI | -232.10 |
| Net Debt, LFY | -386.66 |
| Dividend Yield - 5 Year Average | 7.07% |
| Dividend Yield - indicated annual dividend divided by closing price | 7.45% |
| Current Dividend Yield - Common Stock Primary Issue, LTM | 7.58% |
| Free Cash Flow - most recent fiscal year | 370.59 |
| LT debt/equity - most recent fiscal year | 5.05% |
| Payout ratio - most recent fiscal year | — |
| Total debt/total equity - most recent fiscal year | 14.99% |
| LT debt/equity - most recent half-year | 4.00% |
| Total debt/total equity - most recent half-year | 14.80% |
| Free Cash Flow - trailing 12 month | 370.59 |
| Payout ratio - trailing 12 month | — |
| Revenue - most recent fiscal year | 1,747.85 |
| Revenue - trailing 12 month | 1,747.85 |
| EBITD - most recent fiscal year | 509.58 |
| EBITD - trailing 12 month | 509.58 |
| Earnings before taxes - most recent fiscal year | 253.56 |
| Earnings before taxes - trailing 12 month | 253.56 |
| Net Income available to common - most recent fiscal year | 160.96 |
| Net Income available to common - trailing 12 months | 160.96 |
| Earnings before taxes Normalized - most recent fiscal year | 272.46 |
| Net Income Available to Common, Normalized - most recent fiscal year | — |
| Earnings per Share, Normalized, Excluding Extraordinary Items, Avg. Diluted Shares Outstanding, TTM | 0.20 |
| Net Profit Margin % - 1st historical fiscal year | 9.21% |
| Net Profit Margin % - trailing 12 month | 9.21% |
| Operating margin - 1st historical fiscal year | 15.85% |
| Operating margin - trailing 12 month | 15.85% |
| Pretax margin - trailing 12 month | 14.51% |
| Pretax margin - 1st historical fiscal year | 14.51% |
| Operating Margin - 5 year average | 39.70% |
| Pretax Margin - 5 year average | 40.14% |
| Free Operating Cash Flow/Revenue, 5 Year Average | 28.86% |
| Free Operating Cash Flow/Revenue, TTM | 21.20% |
| Net Profit Margin - 5 year average | 28.04% |
| Return on average assets - most recent fiscal year | 4.54% |
| Return on average assets - trailing 12 month | 4.54% |
| Return on average equity - most recent fiscal year | 6.16% |
| Return on average equity - trailing 12 month | 6.16% |
| Return on average assets - 5 year average | 19.72% |
| Return on average equity - 5 year average | 27.33% |
| Net Income/employee - most recent fiscal year | — |
| Revenue/employee - most recent fiscal year | — |
| Revenue growth rate, 5 year | 10.98% |
| EPS growth rate, 5 year | 14.87% |
| Growth rate% - dividend, 3 year | -25.72% |
| Revenue/share (5 yr growth) | 10.59% |
| Growth rate% - Revenue, 3 year | -13.50% |
| Growth rate% - EPS, 3 year | -45.69% |
| Book value per share growth rate, 5 year | 8.11% |
| Capital Spending growth rate, 5 year | 26.12% |
| Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation & Amortization, 5 Year CAGR | 12.19% |
Financial forecast (AUD, millions except per share)
| Actuals | Estimates | |||||||
| 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | ||||||
| Estimate breakdown | ||||||||
Financials (AUD, millions)
| Period end: | JUL 22 | JUL 23 | JUL 24 | JUL 25 | JUL 26 |
| Fiscal year: | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
| Period length: | 12 months | 12 months | 12 months | 12 months | 12 months |
Announcements
| DATE | TIME | HEADING | PAGES |
| Price sensitive |
NHC +5.82%: Shares were strong today after the coal producer announced the acquisition of Malabar Resources, increasing its stake from 24% to full ownership of the Maxwell mine in NSW and accelerating production growth plans.
New Hope’s FY26 result released yesterday was broadly in line at the earnings level, but the more important story is the setup into FY27. Earnings fell sharply as realised coal prices declined and costs rose through the New Acland ramp-up, but production increased, the balance sheet strengthened and coal prices have already rebounded materially since year-end.
New Hope (NHC) is primarily a thermal coal producer. Its two QLD operating mines both produce thermal coal for export and domestic power generation. The miner has been one of the ASX’s standout performers in 2026, rallying ~49% YTD from ~$4 as stronger thermal coal prices, solid operational delivery and improving broker sentiment drove a significant re-rating.
Coal miner NHC is up +33% so far in calendar 2026, significantly outperforming its ASX peer Whitehaven (+2%) in what’s been a fairly volatile year, as is often the case for cyclical commodity stocks. NHC delivered a strong quarterly update in May, covered here, as the company continues to mine and sell more coal; it's delivering on what it can control; the coal price is a different matter.
New Hope advanced +4.7% on Monday, extending its annual gain to an impressive 45%, and we see no reason not to anticipate further gains over the coming months. NHC delivered a strong quarterly update last month, which we covered here; the main takeaway being that the miner is producing and selling more coal.
NHC delivered a solid quarterly update on Monday (18th May), with production and sales volumes both ahead of the prior corresponding period, although lower realised coal prices relative to the same time last year weighed on earnings. Operations remain strong and cash generation is still healthy, but pricing has come back from the elevated levels seen over recent years.
NHC has been the big winner in the coal space in 2026, gaining +34% even after last week's sharp pullback as war fears receded. As we saw in February, the company is executing well, having managed to trim capex guidance, adding to underlying cash generation. NHC continues to deliver strong cash generation, fuelling capital returns, which fits the bill to continue holding the stock in our income portfolio.
NHC has reveled in the strong coal price with the stock up more than 50% year-to-date. We covered the stock in detail Here after they reported this month, with the conclusion being we expect earnings growth to track higher production, which will feed into ongoing dividend growth, which is why MM owns the stock. Some consolidation feels overdue, but we wouldn’t fight the bullish trend.
The 1H26 result from NHC wasn’t pretty on the headline numbers, and the market’s first reaction was to sell the stock down over 10%, but we argue this result was not unexpected given weakness in coal prices during the reporting period, meeting higher costs, which obviously impacts earnings. When we look through the windscreen (not the rear-view mirror), things look better.
NHC +1.06%: Reported a steady December-quarter operational update, with improving volumes and reaffirmed FY26 guidance.
MM remains long and bullish NHC
MM remains long and bullish NHC
MM is long and bullish NHC around $6.05
MM is long and bullish towards NHC around $5.30
MM is long and bullish New Hope around $5.75
MM remains long & bullish NHC for income ~$5.50
MM is long and bullish toward NHC around $5.40
MM is cautiously bullish towards NHC around $6
MM remains long & bullish NHC ~$5
MM remains long and bullish NHC ~$4.80
New Hope Corporation is an Australian thermal coal miner. It has two operating mines: the 100%-owned New Acland coal mine in Queensland and its 80%-owned Bengalla coal mine in New South Wales. The company should sell around 13 million metric tons of thermal coal annually from fiscal 2029, up from around 11.8 million in fiscal 2026, driven by the construction and ramp up of New Acland Stage 3. The vast majority of New Hope's production is sold into seaborne thermal coal export markets. Reserves at New Acland and Bengalla are sufficient to support multidecade mine lives. New Hope also has significant undeveloped coal resources in Queensland, as well as a 26% holding in the Malabar-Maxwell metallurgical coal mine, which began production in 2023.
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