26/11/2024 09:49

Commonwealth Bank (CBA) $160.27

CBA is, in many ways, the opposite of exciting, but when a position is up over +200%, the label does fit! The financial press and brokers have regularly told investors through 2024 that the banks are too expensive and a sell.

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14/11/2024 09:28

Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA) $149.62

CBA has confounded the bears through 2024, but after yesterday’s trading update, solid as it was, it's hard to comprehend the stock surging ahead through $150.

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13/11/2024 16:52

Commonwealth Bank (CBA) $149.62

CBA –0.42%: Released its 1Q25 trading update and was ahead of consensus on key metrics but closed slightly lower on a down day for the banks amid full valuations across the sector.

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17/10/2024 09:40

BHP Group (BHP) v Commonwealth Bank (CBA)

The gap between BHP and CBA contracted when China fired its first stimulus salvos, but it looks likely to stretch further in the coming weeks—remember, trends have a tendency to stretch further than most people imagine possible. We believe BHP(resources) will outperform CBA (banks) through 2025, and portfolios should be constructed accordingly. While banks look well positioned for one more squeeze higher, this is a move we would fade.

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27/09/2024 09:12

Commonwealth Bank (CBA) v BHP Group (BHP)

Even after the last few days of aggressive reversion, CBA is +20.7% year-to-date, while BHP Group (BHP) is down -15.3%. As we alluded to earlier, the market had moved to extreme levels away from China-facing stocks, net 11% underweight commodities.

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03/09/2024 10:00

Commonwealth Bank (CBA) $141.77

CBA is Australia’s premium bank, and its performance has reflected this, with the stock up ~27% in 2024; plus, it paid a large $2.50 fully franked dividend in August. From a psychological perspective, it's hard to chase CBA into almost weekly fresh highs, but it would have added value every time. It's easy to comprehend why sellers are thin on the ground with CBA, and MM believes it’s a “buy the dip” stock until further notice.

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15/08/2024 09:24

Commonwealth Bank (CBA) $134.21

As we discussed yesterday, CBA posted yet another excellent report on Wednesday, which cemented itself as Australia's leading bank. The $2.50 fully franked dividend being paid on the 21st is very appetising, but the risk/reward to increase our exposure above $130 isn't compelling.

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14/08/2024 16:50

Commonwealth Bank (CBA) $134.21

The trend in margin is interesting, with CBA implying that the higher NIM achieved in 2H24 is still in play, and that could drive a re-rate of margin expectations for this year (currently 1.95%). Small changes in margins on big volumes has a material influence on earnings, and this is probably the biggest positive surprise from today’s result. The other aspect is CBA’s superior level of growth to peers – they’re simply taking market share in many areas.

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14/08/2024 09:30

Commonwealth Bank (CBA) $132.51

FY24 results this morning for CBA and with shares up 28% over the past year, there is a lot of expectation backed in. Cash profit from continuing operations $9.84 billion, down -2.3% y/y, but ahead of $9.79 billion consensus. Final dividend per share $2.50 vs $2.41 consensus Net interest margin 1.99% vs. 2.07% y/y, estimate 1.98% An inline result from CBA, no surprises on first pass, though there are no real positive catalysts either. 

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09/08/2024 09:36

Commonwealth Bank (CBA) $129.11

CBA's result will be highly anticipated as a bellwether stock in both the sector and market, especially as it's up +14.8% YTD. Australia's largest bank will report next Wednesday with the potential of a whopping $10bn annual profit looming - we expect CBA to deliver ~$2.5B in cash earnings in Q4. One of the key focuses for analysts will be the NIM (net interest margin), while on the capital front, no additional buy-backs are expected.

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