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Fairly valued
Morningstar Quantitative Rating as of 6 NOV 2026.
Quantitative Equity Rating Methodology – view here
Five-star price 29.21 Fair value 38.34 One-star price 50.33
Morningstar Quantitative Rating as of 6 NOV 2026.
Morningstar Quantitative Rating as of 6 NOV 2026. The slider runs from the five-star price (29.21) to the one-star price (50.33).
| Ratios |
|---|
| Currency (Price/reporting): AUD/AUD |
| Exchange Rate: 1.0000 |
| Price - closing or last bid | 40.00 |
| Price - 12 month high | 49.45 |
| Price - 12 month low | 35.48 |
| Pricing date | 5 NOV 2026 |
| Volume - avg. trading volume for the last ten days | 5.75 |
| Market capitalization | 124,449.60 |
| 12 Month High price date | 27 FEB 2026 |
| 12 Month Low price date | 9 JUN 2026 |
| Volume - avg. trading volume for the last 3 months | 4.91 |
| Price - 1 Day % Change | 2.67% |
| Price - 13 week price percent change | -5.95% |
| Price - 26 week price percent change | 2.70% |
| Price - 5 Day % Change | -3.29% |
| Price - 52 week price percent change | -10.17% |
| Price - YTD price percent change | -5.46% |
| Price % Change Month To Date | 4.17% |
| EPS excluding extraordinary items - most recent fiscal year | 1.981 |
| EPS excluding extraordinary items - trailing 12 month | 1.981 |
| EPS Normalized - most recent fiscal year | 1.982 |
| Revenue/share - most recent fiscal year | 7.230 |
| Revenue/share - trailing 12 month | 7.230 |
| Book value per share - most recent fiscal year | 20.130 |
| Book value per share - most recent half-year | 20.130 |
| Book value (tangible) per share - most recent fiscal year | 18.940 |
| Book value (tangible) per share - most recent half-year | 18.940 |
| Cash per share - most recent fiscal year | 24.029 |
| Cash per share - most recent half-year | 24.029 |
| Cash Flow per share - most recent fiscal year | -0.536 |
| Cash Flow per share - trailing 12 month | -0.536 |
| Dividend per share - most recent fiscal year | 1.700 |
| Dividends per share - trailing 12 month | 1.700 |
| EBITD per share - trailing 12 month | — |
| EPS Basic excluding extraordinary items - most recent fiscal year | 1.990 |
| EPS Basic excluding extraordinary items - trailing 12 month | 1.990 |
| EPS including extraordinary items - most recent fiscal year | 1.999 |
| EPS including extraordinary items - trailing 12 month | 1.999 |
| Free Cash Flow per share - trailing 12 month | -0.935 |
| P/E excluding extraordinary items, most recent fiscal year | 20.19 |
| P/E Normalized, most recent fiscal year | 20.18 |
| Price to sales - most recent fiscal year | 5.53 |
| Price to Tangible Book - most fiscal year | 2.14 |
| Price to Free Cash Flow per Share - most recent fiscal year | — |
| Price to Cash Flow per share - trailing 12 month | — |
| Price to Book - most recent fiscal year | 1.99 |
| P/E excluding extraordinary items high, trailing 12 months | 22.24 |
| P/E excluding extraordinary items low, trailing 12 months | 17.84 |
| Net Debt, LFI | 870,330.00 |
| Net Debt, LFY | 953,049.00 |
| Dividend Yield - 5 Year Average | 4.60% |
| Dividend Yield - indicated annual dividend divided by closing price | 4.13% |
| Current Dividend Yield - Common Stock Primary Issue, LTM | 4.25% |
| Free Cash Flow - most recent fiscal year | -2,874.00 |
| LT debt/equity - most recent fiscal year | — |
| Payout ratio - most recent fiscal year | 85.47% |
| Total debt/total equity - most recent fiscal year | 1,623.76% |
| LT debt/equity - most recent half-year | — |
| Total debt/total equity - most recent half-year | 1,560.56% |
| Free Cash Flow - trailing 12 month | -2,874.00 |
| Payout ratio - trailing 12 month | 85.47% |
| Revenue - most recent fiscal year | 22,218.00 |
| Revenue - trailing 12 month | 22,218.00 |
| EBITD - most recent fiscal year | — |
| EBITD - trailing 12 month | — |
| Earnings before taxes - most recent fiscal year | 8,687.00 |
| Earnings before taxes - trailing 12 month | 8,687.00 |
| Net Income available to common - most recent fiscal year | 6,143.00 |
| Net Income available to common - trailing 12 months | 6,143.00 |
| Earnings before taxes Normalized - most recent fiscal year | 8,691.00 |
| Net Income Available to Common, Normalized - most recent fiscal year | — |
| Earnings per Share, Normalized, Excluding Extraordinary Items, Avg. Diluted Shares Outstanding, TTM | 1.98 |
| Net Profit Margin % - 1st historical fiscal year | 27.69% |
| Net Profit Margin % - trailing 12 month | 27.69% |
| Operating margin - 1st historical fiscal year | — |
| Operating margin - trailing 12 month | — |
| Pretax margin - trailing 12 month | 39.10% |
| Pretax margin - 1st historical fiscal year | 39.10% |
| Operating Margin - 5 year average | — |
| Pretax Margin - 5 year average | 47.46% |
| Free Operating Cash Flow/Revenue, 5 Year Average | -37.99% |
| Free Operating Cash Flow/Revenue, TTM | -12.94% |
| Net Profit Margin - 5 year average | 33.90% |
| Return on average assets - most recent fiscal year | 0.54% |
| Return on average assets - trailing 12 month | 0.54% |
| Return on average equity - most recent fiscal year | 9.92% |
| Return on average equity - trailing 12 month | 9.92% |
| Return on average assets - 5 year average | 0.66% |
| Return on average equity - 5 year average | 11.25% |
| Net Income/employee - most recent fiscal year | 144,851.78 |
| Revenue/employee - most recent fiscal year | 523,133.43 |
| Revenue growth rate, 5 year | 5.90% |
| EPS growth rate, 5 year | 1.44% |
| Growth rate% - dividend, 3 year | 1.83% |
| Revenue/share (5 yr growth) | 8.94% |
| Growth rate% - Revenue, 3 year | 2.50% |
| Growth rate% - EPS, 3 year | -4.55% |
| Book value per share growth rate, 5 year | 0.99% |
| Capital Spending growth rate, 5 year | 7.42% |
| Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation & Amortization, 5 Year CAGR | — |
Financial forecast (AUD, millions except per share)
| Actuals | Estimates | |||||||
| 2026 | 2027 | |||||||
| Estimate breakdown |
Financials (AUD, millions)
| Period end: | SEP 22 | SEP 23 | SEP 24 | SEP 25 | SEP 26 |
| Fiscal year: | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
| Period length: | 12 months | 12 months | 12 months | 12 months | 12 months |
Announcements
| DATE | TIME | HEADING | PAGES |
| Price sensitive |
NAB –5.37%: Was one of the few stocks down on a strong day for local equities as the bank reported weaker-than-expected FY26 numbers, with cash profit missing consensus by a fair margin. Higher impairment charges and operating costs weighed on earnings, while the bank flagged a more challenging economic outlook.
NAB –1.58%: fell after a softer 1H result, with cash profit missing expectations as higher costs and weaker revenue weighed on the outcome.
NAB, the country’s top lender to businesses, followed in the footsteps of Westpac, dropping 3.6%, after flagging a sharp rise in bad debt provisions ahead of its 1H result, with impairments jumping to more than $700mn as it braces for stress among fuel-exposed business customers.
NAB is down more than 3% on Tuesday after being downgraded by JP Morgan on concerns around credit quality and impairments.
NAB +3.97%: A solid 1Q trading update, with cash earnings lifting meaningfully versus the 2H25 run-rate, supported by underlying profit growth, stable margins and lower impairment charges.
Similar to Westpac, NAB doesn’t report and pay its next dividend until May but it is due to give the market a quarterly update next week. Yesterday the stock advanced +3.4%, making new all-time highs in the process. It’s the 3rd best performing ASX bank over the last year with its forecast 3.9% fully franked yield, well below that of ANZ at 4.6%.
NAB -3.3 %: The FY25 result landed largely in line with expectations as the Big Four member posted second-half cash earnings of $7.09 billion vs expected $7.2bn, narrowly missing consensus by 2% as growth in business and personal banking was offset by higher expenses and impairment charges.
NAB is set to report on Thursday and trade ex-dividend next week, yielding ~3.9% over the next 12-months. All things being equal, NAB is ok value trading on 19x, similar to WBC, which reported solidly yesterday, but we see no reason to consider switching from WBC at this stage. Assuming (a scary word before reports) NABs result is broadly in line with expectations can see the bank trading between $42 and $45 into Christmas.
NAB and the 5th banking pillar Macquarie look very similar from a charting perspective, i.e. new highs look on the cards, but they’ve been clear laggards this year. We rate NAB our least preferred in the sector simply because the other banks are now going harder at business and institutional banking, which has traditionally been NABs key differentiator.
NAB experienced the sharpest correction amongst the “Big Four” traditional banks following Liberation day, demonstrating its relatively high Beta amongst its peers. NAB’s 1H FY25 result was broadly in line with estimates aided by a lower-than-expected credit impairment charge.
MM is neutral towards NAB, preferring ANZ & WBC
MM is neutral NAB, preferring ANZ & WBC
MM is cautiously bullish towards National Australia Bank around $40
MM is neutral towards NAB around $43.30
MM has turned more neutral towards NAB above $47
MM is cautiously bullish towards NAB around $45.50
MM is neutral toward NAB, preferring WBC and ANZ for bank exposure
MM is neutral towards NAB
MM is cautiously bullish toward NAB
MM is bullish towards NAB through 2025
National Australia Bank is the most business-focused of the four major banks, holding the largest share of business loans and the number-three spot in home loans. National Australia Bank is currently the second-largest bank by market capitalization, with the franchise covering consumer, small business, corporate, and institutional sectors. Under the UBank brand the bank also owns one of Australia's largest digital-only banks. Offshore operations in New Zealand round out the group.
Was NAB’s result really that bad? Portfolio Performance & more
Recorded 10.30am Thursday 4th May
CNBC Asia – Talking GDP & Banks
Australia is headed for a recession but some stocks there could still be attractive
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