27/11/2023 08:54

Interest Rates / Bond Yields

The Australian three-year bond yield recovered some of its recent early losses last week. It remains a big ask for them to push much below 4% without clear signs that inflation is under control and the RBA has donned a dovish hat into 2024 – this week’s Retail Sales and CPI (inflation) data will influence how Australian bonds and interest rate hopes travel into 2024.

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20/11/2023 09:03

Interest Rates / Bond Yields

The Australian three-year bond yield retreated last week following the market-friendly US CPI inflation print, as signs emerge that the macro factor, which has sent interest rates soaring over recent years, is finally under control. The local 3s have gone from testing 4.5% to almost 4% in 3-weeks, fuelling the recent strong rally by equities.

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13/11/2023 08:55

Interest Rates / Bond Yields

The Australian three-year bond yield chopped around last week in a fairly volatile manner following some conflicting messaging from various US Fed members; the end result was the short-dated local bond closed unchanged, still trading below the 4.35% cash rate.

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06/11/2023 08:59

Interest Rates / Bond Yields

The Australian three-year bond yield closed unchanged last week after an early foray up towards 4.5%; with the RBA decision looming tomorrow afternoon and bets increasing that Michele Bullock & Co. will hike, it's likely to be quiet in local bonds until 2.30 pm tomorrow, just 30-minutes before the start of the Melbourne Cup.

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23/10/2023 08:45

Interest Rates / Bond Yields

The Australian three-year bond yield rallied back above 4% last week after the RBA and Fed made it clear further rate hikes are not out of the question. At this stage, we need to see them back below 3.75% before becoming confident that our forecasted decline is underway.

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09/10/2023 09:02

Interest Rates / Bond Yields

The Australian three-year bond yield edged back below 4% last week and we’re set to open unchanged this morning, but events unfolding around Israel could see them marked lower this morning as the appetite for the relative safety of bonds increases, i.e. higher bond prices mean lower yields.

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03/10/2023 09:15

Interest Rates / Bond Yields

The Australian three-year bond yields jumped back above 4% last week and are set to test their 2023 high this week following last night's hawkish comments from the Fed. Australian markets are continuing to take their lead from the US, which is weighing on bond prices and pushing yields higher, the trend is strong and backed by an inflationary macroeconomic backdrop.

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15/05/2023 09:11

Interest Rates / Bond Yields

Another quiet week for Australian bond yields as they rotate around the 3% level first reached in mid-2022. Until the economic picture or RBA rhetoric changes we believe it’s unlikely bonds will travel far in the months ahead i.e. they are consolidating after yields surged through 2021/2022.

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08/05/2023 09:04

Interest Rates / Bond Yields

US 2-year Bonds have continued to consolidate their recent gains over the last month (yields lower) as recession fears grow but similarly to local markets, we feel there’s now a lot of bad news already built into yields making it hard to envisage a major move under 3.5% until we see a distinct change in rhetoric from the Fed &/or worsening of the US economic outlook.

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03/05/2023 09:06

First Up

The ASX200 was clobbered -0.9% after the RBA’s move yesterday, not a great backdrop for a market that was already feeling tired. Tuesday’s sell-off felt indiscriminate and futures-led, surprisingly the rate-sensitive names definitely didn’t receive the brunt of the selling with tech the only sector to close in positive territory although real estate stocks did catch my eye closing lower across the board. The next 24-48 hours are likely to provide a better gauge as to what sectors will move both in/out of favour, as opposed to the brief few hours following the announcement, which Philip Lowe said overnight was ‘a very close call’.

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