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Overvalued
Morningstar Quantitative Rating as of 30 OCT 2026.
Quantitative Equity Rating Methodology – view here
Five-star price 27.52 Fair value 35.18 One-star price 44.97
Morningstar Quantitative Rating as of 30 OCT 2026.
Morningstar Quantitative Rating as of 30 OCT 2026. The slider runs from the five-star price (27.52) to the one-star price (44.97).
| Ratios |
|---|
| Currency (Price/reporting): AUD/AUD |
| Exchange Rate: 1.0000 |
| Price - closing or last bid | 40.81 |
| Price - 12 month high | 41.33 |
| Price - 12 month low | 33.36 |
| Pricing date | 29 OCT 2026 |
| Volume - avg. trading volume for the last ten days | 4.84 |
| Market capitalization | 122,880.15 |
| 12 Month High price date | 30 OCT 2026 |
| 12 Month Low price date | 9 JUN 2026 |
| Volume - avg. trading volume for the last 3 months | 4.42 |
| Price - 1 Day % Change | 0.22% |
| Price - 13 week price percent change | 8.16% |
| Price - 26 week price percent change | 12.80% |
| Price - 5 Day % Change | 2.82% |
| Price - 52 week price percent change | 10.00% |
| Price - YTD price percent change | 12.30% |
| Price % Change Month To Date | 6.14% |
| EPS excluding extraordinary items - most recent fiscal year | 1.965 |
| EPS excluding extraordinary items - trailing 12 month | 1.973 |
| EPS Normalized - most recent fiscal year | 1.820 |
| Revenue/share - most recent fiscal year | 7.015 |
| Revenue/share - trailing 12 month | 7.033 |
| Book value per share - most recent fiscal year | 23.838 |
| Book value per share - most recent half-year | 23.598 |
| Book value (tangible) per share - most recent fiscal year | 22.154 |
| Book value (tangible) per share - most recent half-year | 21.977 |
| Cash per share - most recent fiscal year | 41.129 |
| Cash per share - most recent half-year | 60.611 |
| Cash Flow per share - most recent fiscal year | 3.712 |
| Cash Flow per share - trailing 12 month | -0.225 |
| Dividend per share - most recent fiscal year | 1.660 |
| Dividends per share - trailing 12 month | 1.660 |
| EBITD per share - trailing 12 month | — |
| EPS Basic excluding extraordinary items - most recent fiscal year | 1.982 |
| EPS Basic excluding extraordinary items - trailing 12 month | 1.975 |
| EPS including extraordinary items - most recent fiscal year | 1.982 |
| EPS including extraordinary items - trailing 12 month | 1.975 |
| Free Cash Flow per share - trailing 12 month | -0.225 |
| P/E excluding extraordinary items, most recent fiscal year | 20.68 |
| P/E Normalized, most recent fiscal year | 21.46 |
| Price to sales - most recent fiscal year | 5.80 |
| Price to Tangible Book - most fiscal year | 1.88 |
| Price to Free Cash Flow per Share - most recent fiscal year | — |
| Price to Cash Flow per share - trailing 12 month | — |
| Price to Book - most recent fiscal year | 1.73 |
| P/E excluding extraordinary items high, trailing 12 months | 20.81 |
| P/E excluding extraordinary items low, trailing 12 months | 16.44 |
| Net Debt, LFI | 938,400.00 |
| Net Debt, LFY | 1,002,726.00 |
| Dividend Yield - 5 Year Average | 5.48% |
| Dividend Yield - indicated annual dividend divided by closing price | 4.16% |
| Current Dividend Yield - Common Stock Primary Issue, LTM | 4.07% |
| Free Cash Flow - most recent fiscal year | 11,188.00 |
| LT debt/equity - most recent fiscal year | — |
| Payout ratio - most recent fiscal year | 84.48% |
| Total debt/total equity - most recent fiscal year | 1,566.01% |
| LT debt/equity - most recent half-year | — |
| Total debt/total equity - most recent half-year | 1,562.10% |
| Free Cash Flow - trailing 12 month | -709.00 |
| Payout ratio - trailing 12 month | 84.14% |
| Revenue - most recent fiscal year | 22,307.00 |
| Revenue - trailing 12 month | 22,186.00 |
| EBITD - most recent fiscal year | — |
| EBITD - trailing 12 month | — |
| Earnings before taxes - most recent fiscal year | 8,722.00 |
| Earnings before taxes - trailing 12 month | 8,722.00 |
| Net Income available to common - most recent fiscal year | 5,891.00 |
| Net Income available to common - trailing 12 months | 5,899.00 |
| Earnings before taxes Normalized - most recent fiscal year | 10,321.00 |
| Net Income Available to Common, Normalized - most recent fiscal year | 5,787.00 |
| Earnings per Share, Normalized, Excluding Extraordinary Items, Avg. Diluted Shares Outstanding, TTM | 1.90 |
| Net Profit Margin % - 1st historical fiscal year | 26.59% |
| Net Profit Margin % - trailing 12 month | 26.77% |
| Operating margin - 1st historical fiscal year | — |
| Operating margin - trailing 12 month | — |
| Pretax margin - trailing 12 month | 39.31% |
| Pretax margin - 1st historical fiscal year | 39.10% |
| Operating Margin - 5 year average | — |
| Pretax Margin - 5 year average | 47.67% |
| Free Operating Cash Flow/Revenue, 5 Year Average | 36.94% |
| Free Operating Cash Flow/Revenue, TTM | -3.20% |
| Net Profit Margin - 5 year average | 33.28% |
| Return on average assets - most recent fiscal year | 0.46% |
| Return on average assets - trailing 12 month | 0.46% |
| Return on average equity - most recent fiscal year | 8.37% |
| Return on average equity - trailing 12 month | 8.34% |
| Return on average assets - 5 year average | 0.60% |
| Return on average equity - 5 year average | 9.91% |
| Net Income/employee - most recent fiscal year | 137,652.57 |
| Revenue/employee - most recent fiscal year | 517,635.87 |
| Revenue growth rate, 5 year | 4.03% |
| EPS growth rate, 5 year | 10.74% |
| Growth rate% - dividend, 3 year | 5.13% |
| Revenue/share (5 yr growth) | 4.17% |
| Growth rate% - Revenue, 3 year | 5.49% |
| Growth rate% - EPS, 3 year | -5.55% |
| Book value per share growth rate, 5 year | 2.14% |
| Capital Spending growth rate, 5 year | — |
| Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation & Amortization, 5 Year CAGR | — |
Financial forecast (AUD, millions except per share)
| Actuals | Estimates | |||||||
| 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | ||||||
| Estimate breakdown | ||||||||
Financials (AUD, millions)
| Period end: | SEP 21 | SEP 22 | SEP 23 | SEP 24 | SEP 25 |
| Fiscal year: | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
| Period length: | 12 months | 12 months | 12 months | 12 months | 12 months |
Announcements
| DATE | TIME | HEADING | PAGES |
| Price sensitive |
ANZ has been the standout local bank having delivered a solid 3Q26 trading update here, and we simply see no reason not to be long the bank that’s executing best, especially with its relatively low housing exposure. It's still the cheapest of the Big Four local banks, which we do not feel is warranted under Nuno Matos; it’s a legacy issue that’s slowly being addressed by this year's outperformance.
We covered ANZ in detail following its 3Q26 trading update in August here. In summary, ANZ delivered a solid update, with cash earnings (NPAT) of $1.90bn around 2% ahead of expectations.
ANZ +4.53%: delivered a solid 3Q26 trading update, with cash profit slightly ahead of expectations, costs and impairments better than feared, and lending growth showing encouraging momentum. Importantly, ANZ also appears less exposed than CBA and Westpac to the current housing slowdown, which could prove an advantage as mortgage activity cools.
The Active Income Strategy continues to do what it’s designed to do, deliver high, consistent income with capital growth over time, while cushioning volatility when markets get tougher – as they are currently.
ANZ has been a stellar performer over recent years, and although the last few days' drop has felt savage its well short of what we saw through late 2024, early 2025. We continue to like the bank but can see a further test lower in the coming weeks.
ANZ doesn’t report its half-year and pay its next dividend until May, but they delivered a solid 1Q trading update this morning as new CEO Nuno Matos continues to exert his influence on the bank:
Two charts this week illustrating that the “Big Four banks” are on track for new highs in the coming months - perhaps not CBA. Similar to gold we had the below chart for WBC in play throughout 2025 targeting new highs, a bullish read through for the ASX. Again we see no reason to deviate from this roadmap, especially as most US banks continue to shine.
ANZ +3.21%: Despite a weaker-than-expected headline profit in today’s FY25 result, the positive reaction from the market showed the focus remains on the strategic reset laid out by new CEO Nuno Matos in mid-October.
ANZ has also outperformed MQG over the last three months by ~23%, primarily because MQG hadn’t become as overpriced as CBA. However, we’ve been seeing more misses than beats from the “Silver Doughnut” in recent times, which is a new but unappealing trend.
CBA was driven higher by momentum traders into the EOFY, pushing it up to ~$190/sh, but ever since, it has peeled away, closing ~14% below this year's high on Monday.
MM is long and bullish towards ANZ
ANZ remains our top pick in the banking sector
ANZ remains our No 1 pick in the banking sector
MM is bullish on ANZ in the $37 area
MM remains long and bullish towards ANZ
MM is bullish towards ANZ around $37.50
MM remains long & bullish ANZ
MM still prefers ANZ to CBA at current levels
MM is long & mildly bullish ANZ
MM is cautiously bullish towards ANZ into 2026
ANZ Group is the owner of one of Australia's four major banks and provides retail, business, and institutional banking services to customers in Australia, New Zealand, and Asia-Pacific. The super-regional Asian strategy was de-emphasized, with management focusing on the higher-returning businesses in Australia and New Zealand. ANZ Bank still retains a tilt to its Asia-centric strategy, but is now more balanced, better capitalized, and a simpler bank.
Weekly Video Update: James & Harry discuss ANZ, and observations from this weeks high conviction stock calls
Recorded Thursday October 27
CNBC Asia – Talking GDP & Banks
Australia is headed for a recession but some stocks there could still be attractive
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