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Morning report

Portfolio Positioning: Michele Bullock remains hawkish as many Australians struggle

Retail sales came in softer than expected in October, down -0.2% from September, missing forecasts of a 0.1% rise. We believe households are slowing their spending faster than many recognise, with the exception of the debt-free retirees who are enjoying today's high-interest rate environment. Discretionary spending is declining into Christmas, we can see it “freezing over” in the New Year unless things change dramatically, i.e. the average person is simply paying too much in rent/mortgages before even considering the increased cost of fuel, food, etc.
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what matters today Market Matters
Morning report

What Matters Today: How long can the lithium supply glut last?

The sharp correction by lithium and its related stocks has been the undoing of many portfolios through 2023 after the year started with many investors wanting exposure to the EV revolution – we discussed it as a crowded space at the time, but its demise this year has been deeper than we imagined. Last week saw Lithium prices in China fall sharply to their lowest point in over 2 years after a trial delivery of the critical battery metal to the Guangzhou Futures Exchange indicated a larger-than-expected supply.
Read more
what matters today Market Matters
Morning report

Macro Monday: A firm but quiet week as the US enjoys Thanksgiving

The S&P500 is up +8.7% in November, one of its best performances in the last century, with December still to come. Assuming central banks, particularly the Fed, keep off their hawkish Tannoy’s into the New Year, we anticipate a pop to fresh 2023 and potentially new all-time highs in the coming weeks – only 1.3% & 5.7% higher, respectively. Investors are starting to believe that strong businesses are adapting well to higher rates, hence the strong getting stronger & vice-versa.
Read more
what matters today Market Matters
Morning report

What Matters Today: Will the “Defensives” rise from the ashes in 2024?

The last 6-months have been tough on a number of classic mainstay ASX defensives as a kick-up by long-term bond yields weighed on a number of names from CSL Ltd (CSL) to Woolworths (WOW) and Transurban (TCL). Obviously, there are more than just bonds influencing the share price of these companies, but their path this FY has some large similarities with the respective charts, almost perfect overlays in a number of cases.
Read more
what matters today Market Matters
Morning report

What Matters Today: The local Insurance stocks provide an interesting read-through for equities into 2024

The Insurance Sector caught our attention on a lacklustre day for the ASX, with a number of the main players enjoying a bid, e.g. QBE Insurance (QBE) +2.1% and Suncorp (SUN) +1.9%. This is one sector that generally enjoys higher bond yields as companies hold premiums in fixed interest before claims roll through; hence, with higher yields, this float simply earns more interest. We all know the RBA has hiked rates from 0.1% to 4.35% in around 18 months, providing a tailwind for the sector
Read more
what matters today Market Matters
Morning report

Portfolio Positioning: BHP, RIO & FMG are propelled to fresh 8-month highs by iron ore

The ASX200 enjoyed a solid Tuesday on the index level, but with less than 55% of the main board rallying, it was left to the influential big banks and miners to perform the heavy lifting, enabling the index to advance +0.3%. The sectors continue to jockey for position with a performance baton into a Christmas Rally potentially at stake. The last week has seen a clear difference on the performance front, with our preferred scenario being more of the same into Christmas: Winners: Resources, Tech, Real Estate, and Healthcare. Losers: Energy, Utilities and Consumer Staples.
Read more
what matters today Market Matters
Morning report

What Matters Today: This time last year, we bought Tech; what’s the plan for 2024?

A year ago, we went overweight the Tech Sector, which, after a few false dawns, eventually proved an excellent value add for portfolios. However, unfortunately, the local market failed to keep pace with the “Magnificent Seven”, i.e. the FANG+ Index hit fresh all-time highs overnight. In contrast, the local tech sector languishes over 35% below its 2021 high. We have now adopted a neutral stance towards US Tech. However, further upside is likely over the coming weeks; we are currently focused on levels to reduce exposure as opposed to increasing.
Read more
what matters today Market Matters
Morning report

Macro Monday: US Tech continues to drag global equities higher

Global equities have bounced strongly over the last few weeks, with US Big Tech leading the charge; the FANG+ Index has surged over +17% in a matter of weeks, closing on Friday within a good day of fresh all-time highs. The “Big Tech Stocks” performance year-to-date is reminiscent of bull market days. However, 2023 has only been about a handful of stocks, the “Magnificent Seven”, with 50% of the S&P500 struggling to stay in positive territory in a year where the S&P500 index is up a healthy +17.6%.
Read more
what matters today Market Matters
Morning report

What Matters Today: Can the Four Struggling Food Stocks Rally into 2024?

Through 2023, the six stocks in the food sector have been split into clear winners and losers, with no middle ground. What caught our eye yesterday was that the four members that rallied came from the loser's enclosure and vice versa, i.e. some sector reversion was at play. The Food and beverage Sector has endured an awful four years, correcting ~40% as it had to contend with events such as severe weather patterns to Chinese tariffs, surging inflation plus, of course, COVID. As a sector, it looks very oversold, and a decent bounce wouldn’t surprise, but this area must be evaluated on a stock-by-stock basis.
Read more
what matters today Market Matters
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MM believes the Australian inflation rate is headed lower through 2024
MM remains cautiously bullish on the ASX200 into Christmas
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NST
MM remains long and bullish NST
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QBE
MM is neutral towards QBE in the short-term
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COH
MM is neutral/bullish towards COH
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IVV
MM remains cautiously bullish on US stocks short-term
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MM remains bearish toward global bond yields
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MM believes the Australian 3 year yields is headed towards 3%
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XRO
MM is considering switching from XRO to TLS
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ALU
MM is considering switching from ALU to APA
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PDN
MM is targeting the $1.15-1.20 area for PDN
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Latest Reports

Morning report

Portfolio Positioning: Michele Bullock remains hawkish as many Australians struggle

Retail sales came in softer than expected in October, down -0.2% from September, missing forecasts of a 0.1% rise. We believe households are slowing their spending faster than many recognise, with the exception of the debt-free retirees who are enjoying today's high-interest rate environment. Discretionary spending is declining into Christmas, we can see it “freezing over” in the New Year unless things change dramatically, i.e. the average person is simply paying too much in rent/mortgages before even considering the increased cost of fuel, food, etc.

what matters today Market Matters
Morning report

What Matters Today: How long can the lithium supply glut last?

The sharp correction by lithium and its related stocks has been the undoing of many portfolios through 2023 after the year started with many investors wanting exposure to the EV revolution – we discussed it as a crowded space at the time, but its demise this year has been deeper than we imagined. Last week saw Lithium prices in China fall sharply to their lowest point in over 2 years after a trial delivery of the critical battery metal to the Guangzhou Futures Exchange indicated a larger-than-expected supply.

what matters today Market Matters
Morning report

Macro Monday: A firm but quiet week as the US enjoys Thanksgiving

The S&P500 is up +8.7% in November, one of its best performances in the last century, with December still to come. Assuming central banks, particularly the Fed, keep off their hawkish Tannoy’s into the New Year, we anticipate a pop to fresh 2023 and potentially new all-time highs in the coming weeks – only 1.3% & 5.7% higher, respectively. Investors are starting to believe that strong businesses are adapting well to higher rates, hence the strong getting stronger & vice-versa.

what matters today Market Matters
Morning report

What Matters Today: Will the “Defensives” rise from the ashes in 2024?

The last 6-months have been tough on a number of classic mainstay ASX defensives as a kick-up by long-term bond yields weighed on a number of names from CSL Ltd (CSL) to Woolworths (WOW) and Transurban (TCL). Obviously, there are more than just bonds influencing the share price of these companies, but their path this FY has some large similarities with the respective charts, almost perfect overlays in a number of cases.

what matters today Market Matters
Morning report

What Matters Today: The local Insurance stocks provide an interesting read-through for equities into 2024

The Insurance Sector caught our attention on a lacklustre day for the ASX, with a number of the main players enjoying a bid, e.g. QBE Insurance (QBE) +2.1% and Suncorp (SUN) +1.9%. This is one sector that generally enjoys higher bond yields as companies hold premiums in fixed interest before claims roll through; hence, with higher yields, this float simply earns more interest. We all know the RBA has hiked rates from 0.1% to 4.35% in around 18 months, providing a tailwind for the sector

what matters today Market Matters
Morning report

Portfolio Positioning: BHP, RIO & FMG are propelled to fresh 8-month highs by iron ore

The ASX200 enjoyed a solid Tuesday on the index level, but with less than 55% of the main board rallying, it was left to the influential big banks and miners to perform the heavy lifting, enabling the index to advance +0.3%. The sectors continue to jockey for position with a performance baton into a Christmas Rally potentially at stake. The last week has seen a clear difference on the performance front, with our preferred scenario being more of the same into Christmas: Winners: Resources, Tech, Real Estate, and Healthcare. Losers: Energy, Utilities and Consumer Staples.

what matters today Market Matters
Morning report

What Matters Today: This time last year, we bought Tech; what’s the plan for 2024?

A year ago, we went overweight the Tech Sector, which, after a few false dawns, eventually proved an excellent value add for portfolios. However, unfortunately, the local market failed to keep pace with the “Magnificent Seven”, i.e. the FANG+ Index hit fresh all-time highs overnight. In contrast, the local tech sector languishes over 35% below its 2021 high. We have now adopted a neutral stance towards US Tech. However, further upside is likely over the coming weeks; we are currently focused on levels to reduce exposure as opposed to increasing.

what matters today Market Matters
Morning report

Macro Monday: US Tech continues to drag global equities higher

Global equities have bounced strongly over the last few weeks, with US Big Tech leading the charge; the FANG+ Index has surged over +17% in a matter of weeks, closing on Friday within a good day of fresh all-time highs. The “Big Tech Stocks” performance year-to-date is reminiscent of bull market days. However, 2023 has only been about a handful of stocks, the “Magnificent Seven”, with 50% of the S&P500 struggling to stay in positive territory in a year where the S&P500 index is up a healthy +17.6%.

what matters today Market Matters
Morning report

What Matters Today: Can the Four Struggling Food Stocks Rally into 2024?

Through 2023, the six stocks in the food sector have been split into clear winners and losers, with no middle ground. What caught our eye yesterday was that the four members that rallied came from the loser's enclosure and vice versa, i.e. some sector reversion was at play. The Food and beverage Sector has endured an awful four years, correcting ~40% as it had to contend with events such as severe weather patterns to Chinese tariffs, surging inflation plus, of course, COVID. As a sector, it looks very oversold, and a decent bounce wouldn’t surprise, but this area must be evaluated on a stock-by-stock basis.

what matters today Market Matters
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