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Morning report

Portfolio Positioning: Australia’s economy remains “too strong” for rate cuts

Melbourne Cup Day saw the RBA leave interest rates at 4.35% while indicating they will remain at their 13-year high for some time. This is not ideal for Prime Minister Albanese, as a federal election is due between February and May. Labour has already started looking for votes from the younger generation by targeting fees/payments around further education.
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Morning report

Macro Monday: Have we seen the best of the “Magnificent Seven”?

The “Magnificent Seven” goliath tech stocks have come off the boil over recent months, illustrated by the NASDAQ failing to break above its July peak, whereas the Broad-based S&P500, Dow Jones and Russell 30 have all posted new milestones in recent weeks. The markets are becoming more discerning towards high-valuation growth stocks, demanding increasingly strong results to maintain their bullish advance.
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what matters today Market Matters
Morning report

What Matters Today: Can the ASX banks keep pace with their global peers?

The ASX200 slipped 0.25% as we waved goodbye to October; the infamous month finished down 0.6%, but volatility was significantly higher on the stock/sector level as we rolled through AGM season. The financials remained the backbone of the market, advancing 4.5% ahead of key earnings and dividends for 3 of the “Big Four” plus Macquarie Group (MQG).
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Morning report

What Matters Today: Are coal stocks the best way to play AI’s initial huge energy demand?

Thursday saw the Annual headline inflation rate fall to 2.8% in the three months to September from 3.8% in the June quarter, slightly better than the forecasted 2.9%, but it wasn’t enough to move bond markets or the Aussie Dollar. The numbers were broadly in line with the RBA’s inflation outlook; remember last week, Michele Bullock said it would take another “year or two” before consumer prices are sustainably in their 2-3% target band, i.e. rates will remain higher for longer.
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what matters today Market Matters
Morning report

Portfolio Positioning: The resources feel like a coiled spring

China's top legislative bodies' looming meeting on 4-8th November is slowly adding a bid tone to the ASX miners. Overnight, Reuters reported that China is weighing up a massive $US1.4 trillion in fiscal stimulus over the next few years, with talk that it might be even more if Trump wins next week's election – Polymarket now have Trump as a 66.7% favourite!
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what matters today Market Matters
Morning report

What Matters Today: Is there any value remaining in the Financial Services Sector?

The ASX200 managed to eke out a slight 0.1% gain on Monday, with BHP's 1.3% advance being the market's backbone. It was a reasonably balanced affair on the sector level, with tech names advancing +2% while the rate-sensitive utilities and real estate stocks slipped over 0.5%. The main area of weakness was the energy sector, which declined 0.54%, which was not too bad considering that Paladin Energy (PDN) delivered a disappointing quarterly update and oil tumbled over 5% on easing tensions in the Middle East – more on this later.
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what matters today Market Matters
Morning report

Macro Monday: Rising bond yields have tempered enthusiasm for stocks

Donald Trump is the clear favourite for next week's election. He's now rated a ~60% chance of winning the White House, and markets are moving accordingly. As we said last week, the “Trump Trade” has returned with a vengeance, and the impact on bond yields is reverberating across all financial markets.
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MM is bullish toward the ASX200
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MM is long and bullish BTU
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S32
MM is long and bullish S32
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CAR
MM is cautiously bullish towards CAR
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NDQ
MM is bullish towards US stocks
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MM is bullish towards the $A
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MM remains long & bullish ZG US ~$US70
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MM remains long & bullish YETI US ~$US38
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MM is looking for the ASX Materials Sector to outperform into 2025
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MM is bullish toward iron ore into 2025
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BHP
MM is long and bullish BHP
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MM is bullish towards Cu medium-term
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SFR
MM is bullish towards SFR into Christmas
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EVN
MM is long and bullish EVN
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MM remains bullish gold into 2025
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Latest Reports

Morning report

What Matters Today: How will MM tweak portfolios after Trump’s landslide victory?

The bookies again proved to be a far better gauge of politics than the polls, with Donald Trump steamrolling Kamala Harris in yesterday's election. We all know the result: the Republicans are poised to control the House and Senate, making Trump one of the most powerful Presidents in history, a far cry from a jail cell.

what matters today Market Matters
Morning report

Portfolio Positioning: Australia’s economy remains “too strong” for rate cuts

Melbourne Cup Day saw the RBA leave interest rates at 4.35% while indicating they will remain at their 13-year high for some time. This is not ideal for Prime Minister Albanese, as a federal election is due between February and May. Labour has already started looking for votes from the younger generation by targeting fees/payments around further education.

what matters today Market Matters
Morning report

What Matters Today: Stock market complacency is dangerous; look at luxury retail!

The ASX200 enjoyed a solid start to the Presidential election week, closing up +0.6%. The financials dragged the index higher throughout the session, contributing ~50% to the market's advance. Westpac (WBC) reversed an early intra-day ~2.5% loss to finish up +0.9% as investors digested its FY report.

what matters today Market Matters
Morning report

Macro Monday: Have we seen the best of the “Magnificent Seven”?

The “Magnificent Seven” goliath tech stocks have come off the boil over recent months, illustrated by the NASDAQ failing to break above its July peak, whereas the Broad-based S&P500, Dow Jones and Russell 30 have all posted new milestones in recent weeks. The markets are becoming more discerning towards high-valuation growth stocks, demanding increasingly strong results to maintain their bullish advance.

what matters today Market Matters
Morning report

What Matters Today: Can the ASX banks keep pace with their global peers?

The ASX200 slipped 0.25% as we waved goodbye to October; the infamous month finished down 0.6%, but volatility was significantly higher on the stock/sector level as we rolled through AGM season. The financials remained the backbone of the market, advancing 4.5% ahead of key earnings and dividends for 3 of the “Big Four” plus Macquarie Group (MQG).

what matters today Market Matters
Morning report

What Matters Today: Are coal stocks the best way to play AI’s initial huge energy demand?

Thursday saw the Annual headline inflation rate fall to 2.8% in the three months to September from 3.8% in the June quarter, slightly better than the forecasted 2.9%, but it wasn’t enough to move bond markets or the Aussie Dollar. The numbers were broadly in line with the RBA’s inflation outlook; remember last week, Michele Bullock said it would take another “year or two” before consumer prices are sustainably in their 2-3% target band, i.e. rates will remain higher for longer.

what matters today Market Matters
Morning report

Portfolio Positioning: The resources feel like a coiled spring

China's top legislative bodies' looming meeting on 4-8th November is slowly adding a bid tone to the ASX miners. Overnight, Reuters reported that China is weighing up a massive $US1.4 trillion in fiscal stimulus over the next few years, with talk that it might be even more if Trump wins next week's election – Polymarket now have Trump as a 66.7% favourite!

what matters today Market Matters
Morning report

What Matters Today: Is there any value remaining in the Financial Services Sector?

The ASX200 managed to eke out a slight 0.1% gain on Monday, with BHP's 1.3% advance being the market's backbone. It was a reasonably balanced affair on the sector level, with tech names advancing +2% while the rate-sensitive utilities and real estate stocks slipped over 0.5%. The main area of weakness was the energy sector, which declined 0.54%, which was not too bad considering that Paladin Energy (PDN) delivered a disappointing quarterly update and oil tumbled over 5% on easing tensions in the Middle East – more on this later.

what matters today Market Matters
Morning report

Macro Monday: Rising bond yields have tempered enthusiasm for stocks

Donald Trump is the clear favourite for next week's election. He's now rated a ~60% chance of winning the White House, and markets are moving accordingly. As we said last week, the “Trump Trade” has returned with a vengeance, and the impact on bond yields is reverberating across all financial markets.

what matters today Market Matters
more
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