Global bond yields have reversed lower in recent weeks, and at MM, we believe they’ve peaked for this rate hiking cycle. From an investment perspective, we believe portfolios should be positioned for two chapters over the coming 6-12 months, assuming we see no Black Swan events, "risk-on" and 'Risk-off."
Retail sales came in softer than expected in October, down -0.2% from September, missing forecasts of a 0.1% rise. We believe households are slowing their spending faster than many recognise, with the exception of the debt-free retirees who are enjoying today's high-interest rate environment. Discretionary spending is declining into Christmas, we can see it “freezing over” in the New Year unless things change dramatically, i.e. the average person is simply paying too much in rent/mortgages before even considering the increased cost of fuel, food, etc.
The sharp correction by lithium and its related stocks has been the undoing of many portfolios through 2023 after the year started with many investors wanting exposure to the EV revolution – we discussed it as a crowded space at the time, but its demise this year has been deeper than we imagined. Last week saw Lithium prices in China fall sharply to their lowest point in over 2 years after a trial delivery of the critical battery metal to the Guangzhou Futures Exchange indicated a larger-than-expected supply.
The S&P500 is up +8.7% in November, one of its best performances in the last century, with December still to come. Assuming central banks, particularly the Fed, keep off their hawkish Tannoy’s into the New Year, we anticipate a pop to fresh 2023 and potentially new all-time highs in the coming weeks – only 1.3% & 5.7% higher, respectively. Investors are starting to believe that strong businesses are adapting well to higher rates, hence the strong getting stronger & vice-versa.
The last 6-months have been tough on a number of classic mainstay ASX defensives as a kick-up by long-term bond yields weighed on a number of names from CSL Ltd (CSL) to Woolworths (WOW) and Transurban (TCL). Obviously, there are more than just bonds influencing the share price of these companies, but their path this FY has some large similarities with the respective charts, almost perfect overlays in a number of cases.
The Insurance Sector caught our attention on a lacklustre day for the ASX, with a number of the main players enjoying a bid, e.g. QBE Insurance (QBE) +2.1% and Suncorp (SUN) +1.9%. This is one sector that generally enjoys higher bond yields as companies hold premiums in fixed interest before claims roll through; hence, with higher yields, this float simply earns more interest. We all know the RBA has hiked rates from 0.1% to 4.35% in around 18 months, providing a tailwind for the sector
The ASX200 enjoyed a solid Tuesday on the index level, but with less than 55% of the main board rallying, it was left to the influential big banks and miners to perform the heavy lifting, enabling the index to advance +0.3%. The sectors continue to jockey for position with a performance baton into a Christmas Rally potentially at stake. The last week has seen a clear difference on the performance front, with our preferred scenario being more of the same into Christmas:
Winners: Resources, Tech, Real Estate, and Healthcare.
Losers: Energy, Utilities and Consumer Staples.
A year ago, we went overweight the Tech Sector, which, after a few false dawns, eventually proved an excellent value add for portfolios. However, unfortunately, the local market failed to keep pace with the “Magnificent Seven”, i.e. the FANG+ Index hit fresh all-time highs overnight. In contrast, the local tech sector languishes over 35% below its 2021 high. We have now adopted a neutral stance towards US Tech. However, further upside is likely over the coming weeks; we are currently focused on levels to reduce exposure as opposed to increasing.
Global equities have bounced strongly over the last few weeks, with US Big Tech leading the charge; the FANG+ Index has surged over +17% in a matter of weeks, closing on Friday within a good day of fresh all-time highs. The “Big Tech Stocks” performance year-to-date is reminiscent of bull market days. However, 2023 has only been about a handful of stocks, the “Magnificent Seven”, with 50% of the S&P500 struggling to stay in positive territory in a year where the S&P500 index is up a healthy +17.6%.
Through 2023, the six stocks in the food sector have been split into clear winners and losers, with no middle ground. What caught our eye yesterday was that the four members that rallied came from the loser's enclosure and vice versa, i.e. some sector reversion was at play. The Food and beverage Sector has endured an awful four years, correcting ~40% as it had to contend with events such as severe weather patterns to Chinese tariffs, surging inflation plus, of course, COVID. As a sector, it looks very oversold, and a decent bounce wouldn’t surprise, but this area must be evaluated on a stock-by-stock basis.
Retail sales came in softer than expected in October, down -0.2% from September, missing forecasts of a 0.1% rise. We believe households are slowing their spending faster than many recognise, with the exception of the debt-free retirees who are enjoying today's high-interest rate environment. Discretionary spending is declining into Christmas, we can see it “freezing over” in the New Year unless things change dramatically, i.e. the average person is simply paying too much in rent/mortgages before even considering the increased cost of fuel, food, etc.
The sharp correction by lithium and its related stocks has been the undoing of many portfolios through 2023 after the year started with many investors wanting exposure to the EV revolution – we discussed it as a crowded space at the time, but its demise this year has been deeper than we imagined. Last week saw Lithium prices in China fall sharply to their lowest point in over 2 years after a trial delivery of the critical battery metal to the Guangzhou Futures Exchange indicated a larger-than-expected supply.
The S&P500 is up +8.7% in November, one of its best performances in the last century, with December still to come. Assuming central banks, particularly the Fed, keep off their hawkish Tannoy’s into the New Year, we anticipate a pop to fresh 2023 and potentially new all-time highs in the coming weeks – only 1.3% & 5.7% higher, respectively. Investors are starting to believe that strong businesses are adapting well to higher rates, hence the strong getting stronger & vice-versa.
The last 6-months have been tough on a number of classic mainstay ASX defensives as a kick-up by long-term bond yields weighed on a number of names from CSL Ltd (CSL) to Woolworths (WOW) and Transurban (TCL). Obviously, there are more than just bonds influencing the share price of these companies, but their path this FY has some large similarities with the respective charts, almost perfect overlays in a number of cases.
The Insurance Sector caught our attention on a lacklustre day for the ASX, with a number of the main players enjoying a bid, e.g. QBE Insurance (QBE) +2.1% and Suncorp (SUN) +1.9%. This is one sector that generally enjoys higher bond yields as companies hold premiums in fixed interest before claims roll through; hence, with higher yields, this float simply earns more interest. We all know the RBA has hiked rates from 0.1% to 4.35% in around 18 months, providing a tailwind for the sector
The ASX200 enjoyed a solid Tuesday on the index level, but with less than 55% of the main board rallying, it was left to the influential big banks and miners to perform the heavy lifting, enabling the index to advance +0.3%. The sectors continue to jockey for position with a performance baton into a Christmas Rally potentially at stake. The last week has seen a clear difference on the performance front, with our preferred scenario being more of the same into Christmas:
Winners: Resources, Tech, Real Estate, and Healthcare.
Losers: Energy, Utilities and Consumer Staples.
A year ago, we went overweight the Tech Sector, which, after a few false dawns, eventually proved an excellent value add for portfolios. However, unfortunately, the local market failed to keep pace with the “Magnificent Seven”, i.e. the FANG+ Index hit fresh all-time highs overnight. In contrast, the local tech sector languishes over 35% below its 2021 high. We have now adopted a neutral stance towards US Tech. However, further upside is likely over the coming weeks; we are currently focused on levels to reduce exposure as opposed to increasing.
Global equities have bounced strongly over the last few weeks, with US Big Tech leading the charge; the FANG+ Index has surged over +17% in a matter of weeks, closing on Friday within a good day of fresh all-time highs. The “Big Tech Stocks” performance year-to-date is reminiscent of bull market days. However, 2023 has only been about a handful of stocks, the “Magnificent Seven”, with 50% of the S&P500 struggling to stay in positive territory in a year where the S&P500 index is up a healthy +17.6%.
Through 2023, the six stocks in the food sector have been split into clear winners and losers, with no middle ground. What caught our eye yesterday was that the four members that rallied came from the loser's enclosure and vice versa, i.e. some sector reversion was at play. The Food and beverage Sector has endured an awful four years, correcting ~40% as it had to contend with events such as severe weather patterns to Chinese tariffs, surging inflation plus, of course, COVID. As a sector, it looks very oversold, and a decent bounce wouldn’t surprise, but this area must be evaluated on a stock-by-stock basis.
