20 minute delayed
Join Market Matters and get full access to all our Opinion + Action
Overvalued
Morningstar Quantitative Rating as of 30 OCT 2026.
Quantitative Equity Rating Methodology – view here
Five-star price 42.44 Fair value 49.75 One-star price 58.31
Morningstar Quantitative Rating as of 30 OCT 2026.
Morningstar Quantitative Rating as of 30 OCT 2026. The slider runs from the five-star price (42.44) to the one-star price (58.31).
| Ratios |
|---|
| Currency (Price/reporting): AUD/USD |
| Exchange Rate: 1.4269 |
| Price - closing or last bid | 56.74 |
| Price - 12 month high | 68.77 |
| Price - 12 month low | 40.18 |
| Pricing date | 30 OCT 2026 |
| Volume - avg. trading volume for the last ten days | 8.70 |
| Market capitalization | 288,406.80 |
| 12 Month High price date | 26 AUG 2026 |
| 12 Month Low price date | 24 NOV 2025 |
| Volume - avg. trading volume for the last 3 months | 7.75 |
| Price - 1 Day % Change | -1.42% |
| Price - 13 week price percent change | -5.92% |
| Price - 26 week price percent change | 3.28% |
| Price - 5 Day % Change | 3.07% |
| Price - 52 week price percent change | 30.59% |
| Price - YTD price percent change | 24.73% |
| Price % Change Month To Date | -5.84% |
| EPS excluding extraordinary items - most recent fiscal year | 1.932 |
| EPS excluding extraordinary items - trailing 12 month | 1.932 |
| EPS Normalized - most recent fiscal year | 2.595 |
| Revenue/share - most recent fiscal year | 11.546 |
| Revenue/share - trailing 12 month | 11.546 |
| Book value per share - most recent fiscal year | 9.679 |
| Book value per share - most recent half-year | 9.679 |
| Book value (tangible) per share - most recent fiscal year | 10.671 |
| Book value (tangible) per share - most recent half-year | 10.671 |
| Cash per share - most recent fiscal year | 3.631 |
| Cash per share - most recent half-year | 3.631 |
| Cash Flow per share - most recent fiscal year | 4.605 |
| Cash Flow per share - trailing 12 month | 4.605 |
| Dividend per share - most recent fiscal year | 1.720 |
| Dividends per share - trailing 12 month | 2.418 |
| EBITD per share - trailing 12 month | 5.925 |
| EPS Basic excluding extraordinary items - most recent fiscal year | 1.936 |
| EPS Basic excluding extraordinary items - trailing 12 month | 1.936 |
| EPS including extraordinary items - most recent fiscal year | 1.936 |
| EPS including extraordinary items - trailing 12 month | 1.936 |
| Free Cash Flow per share - trailing 12 month | 2.590 |
| P/E excluding extraordinary items, most recent fiscal year | 20.18 |
| P/E Normalized, most recent fiscal year | 15.03 |
| Price to sales - most recent fiscal year | 3.38 |
| Price to Tangible Book - most fiscal year | 4.28 |
| Price to Free Cash Flow per Share - most recent fiscal year | 15.06 |
| Price to Cash Flow per share - trailing 12 month | 8.47 |
| Price to Book - most recent fiscal year | 4.09 |
| P/E excluding extraordinary items high, trailing 12 months | 23.73 |
| P/E excluding extraordinary items low, trailing 12 months | 14.72 |
| Net Debt, LFI | 14,206.00 |
| Net Debt, LFY | 8,519.00 |
| Dividend Yield - 5 Year Average | 5.66% |
| Dividend Yield - indicated annual dividend divided by closing price | 4.20% |
| Current Dividend Yield - Common Stock Primary Issue, LTM | 4.26% |
| Free Cash Flow - most recent fiscal year | 13,178.00 |
| LT debt/equity - most recent fiscal year | 43.39% |
| Payout ratio - most recent fiscal year | 89.03% |
| Total debt/total equity - most recent fiscal year | 48.15% |
| LT debt/equity - most recent half-year | 44.33% |
| Total debt/total equity - most recent half-year | 50.52% |
| Free Cash Flow - trailing 12 month | 13,178.00 |
| Payout ratio - trailing 12 month | 89.03% |
| Revenue - most recent fiscal year | 58,760.00 |
| Revenue - trailing 12 month | 58,760.00 |
| EBITD - most recent fiscal year | 30,150.00 |
| EBITD - trailing 12 month | 30,150.00 |
| Earnings before taxes - most recent fiscal year | 22,414.00 |
| Earnings before taxes - trailing 12 month | 22,414.00 |
| Net Income available to common - most recent fiscal year | 9,833.00 |
| Net Income available to common - trailing 12 months | 9,833.00 |
| Earnings before taxes Normalized - most recent fiscal year | 24,803.00 |
| Net Income Available to Common, Normalized - most recent fiscal year | 13,204.00 |
| Earnings per Share, Normalized, Excluding Extraordinary Items, Avg. Diluted Shares Outstanding, TTM | 2.59 |
| Net Profit Margin % - 1st historical fiscal year | 22.17% |
| Net Profit Margin % - trailing 12 month | 22.17% |
| Operating margin - 1st historical fiscal year | 43.40% |
| Operating margin - trailing 12 month | 43.40% |
| Pretax margin - trailing 12 month | 38.15% |
| Pretax margin - 1st historical fiscal year | 38.15% |
| Operating Margin - 5 year average | 42.62% |
| Pretax Margin - 5 year average | 38.69% |
| Free Operating Cash Flow/Revenue, 5 Year Average | 25.32% |
| Free Operating Cash Flow/Revenue, TTM | 22.43% |
| Net Profit Margin - 5 year average | 24.44% |
| Return on average assets - most recent fiscal year | 11.29% |
| Return on average assets - trailing 12 month | 11.29% |
| Return on average equity - most recent fiscal year | 26.84% |
| Return on average equity - trailing 12 month | 26.84% |
| Return on average assets - 5 year average | 14.05% |
| Return on average equity - 5 year average | 31.36% |
| Net Income/employee - most recent fiscal year | 144,733.33 |
| Revenue/employee - most recent fiscal year | 652,888.89 |
| Revenue growth rate, 5 year | 0.64% |
| EPS growth rate, 5 year | -2.83% |
| Growth rate% - dividend, 3 year | -21.66% |
| Revenue/share (5 yr growth) | 0.55% |
| Growth rate% - Revenue, 3 year | 2.97% |
| Growth rate% - EPS, 3 year | -8.80% |
| Book value per share growth rate, 5 year | -0.31% |
| Capital Spending growth rate, 5 year | 12.06% |
| Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation & Amortization, 5 Year CAGR | -0.01% |
Financial forecast (USD, millions except per share)
| Actuals | Estimates | |||||||
| 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | |||||
| Estimate breakdown | ||||||||
Financials (USD, millions)
| Period end: | JUN 22 | JUN 23 | JUN 24 | JUN 25 | JUN 26 |
| Fiscal year: | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
| Period length: | 12 months | 12 months | 12 months | 12 months | 12 months |
Announcements
| DATE | TIME | HEADING | PAGES |
| Price sensitive |
BHP – 1.8% traded lower today after reporting a mixed but solid September-quarter, with strong iron ore and coal production offset by a sharp fall in copper output. Importantly, FY27 guidance was maintained across all major commodities, although copper now carries less room for error through the balance of the year.
Glencore’s ASX listing through CHESS Depositary Interests (CDIs) has given ASX only investors with direct access to another global diversified miner with growing exposure to copper, the industrial metal at the forefront of global electrification. Copper is forecast to increase from around one-third of Glencore’s earnings (EBITDA) in FY26 to more than half by the early 2030s, supported by projects across South America and Central Africa, alongside optimisation of existing operations including Collahuasi, Antapaccay and Katanga/KCC - in other words, its profile is evolving like BHPs over the coming years, a factor we like.
Copper (Cu) enjoyed a strong session overnight with the December Comex contract gaining +2.1%, taking it within 1% of its August high. The move extended copper's winning streak to six consecutive sessions, its longest run of gains in four months, driven primarily by tightening physical supply in China, amplified by pre-holiday demand, combined with positive macro sentiment from the China-US summit outlook and a weaker dollar.
Following BHP’s strong run and our recent addition to other resource holdings (S32 & PLS), we’re taking some profits, reducing the position back to an 8% portfolio weight. We are still retaining a meaningful holding given our continued positive view on the company, and the outlook for commodities, particularly copper.
When a stock rallies strongly, our prevailing portfolio weight will progressively increase above our target weight - which has occurred in BHP. We are today reinforcing our target 8% portfolio weight in BHP for the Active Income Portfolio, which means we are trimming our position.
We covered BHP’s strong FY26 result here; since then, despite the advance in copper and iron ore, the “Big Australia” is basically unchanged, considering it’s $1.38c fully franked dividend last week. BHP has evolved into more of a copper company, as opposed to iron ore, over the last few years, but despite both commodities advancing, the recent rally has been significant, pushing our prevailing weights in both the Growth & Income Portfolio’s well above target.
BHP +2.65%: delivered a strong FY26 result, with underlying profit, EBITDA and revenue all ahead of expectations, while the dividend was another clear positive. More importantly, the result reinforced the changing shape of the group, with copper now overtaking iron ore as BHP’s largest revenue contributor for the first time.
We continue to believe BHP and RIO are well positioned to benefit from higher Cu prices, EV Truck adoption (reduced fuel bills) and AI efficiencies, but as there are always two sides to a coin, we’re also conscious this view is a consensus one. Hence, we are likely to remain active around our exposures towards the miners, trimming strength so we have the capacity to buy bouts of weakness.
BHP’s revision profile is a classic commodity leverage story, with broad-based earnings upgrades driven more by stronger spot prices than any single corporate catalyst. The standout is earnings (EBITDA), which has been revised up around 26% compared with a 16% lift in revenue, highlighting the operating leverage coming through the portfolio and the growing importance of copper ahead of the FY26 result on 18 August.
BHP has regained its “mojo” in the last five trading sessions after being weighed down by a soft copper price as tensions flared between the US and Iran, plus a strike set to commence at BHP's Port Hedland Bulk Export Terminal. Unfortunately, we can see plenty of industrial action over the coming years, with AI set to replace thousands of jobs. BHP is already well underway in reducing its headcount at its Escondida copper pit in Chile; the site went fully autonomous in January 2026 with 33 autonomous trucks and 11 autonomous drills operating around the clock.
MM remains long & bullish BHP ~$60
MM remains long and bullish toward BHP around $61
MM is bullish towards BHP medium term
MM is trimming BHP in the Active Growth Portfolio ~$63, now targeting an 8% portfolio weight
MM is trimming BHP in the Active Income Portfolio ~$63, reinforcing our 8% target weight
MM is long and bullish towards BHP
MM remains long & bullish BHP
MM is long and bullish towards BHP around $60
MM is long and bullish towards BHP around $60
MM is long and bullish towards BHP around $60.50
BHP is a global diversified miner mainly supplying iron ore and copper. The merger of BHP Limited and Billiton PLC created the present-day BHP Group. The dual-listed structure from the 2001 BHP and Billiton merger was collapsed in 2022. Major assets include Pilbara iron ore and Escondida copper. Onshore US oil and gas assets were sold in 2018, and the remaining petroleum assets were spun off and merged with Woodside in 2022, with BHP vesting the Woodside shares it received to BHP shareholders. It purchased copper miner Oz Minerals in fiscal 2023 and half of the Vicuna copper joint venture in fiscal 2025. It is entering the potash market through the development of its Jansen project in Canada. However, due to low prices, BHP placed its nickel business on care and maintenance in 2024.
Research Lead Shawn Hickman discussing views on BHP, Mineral Resources (MIN) & TPG Telecom (TPG)
Recorded Tuesday 28th February
This week we cover Portfolio Performance
Market Matters Video Update: Out each Wednesday
The Resource Roundtable – Market Matters Exclusive
Forgot password? Request a One Time Password or reset your password
One Time Password
Check your email for an email from [email protected]
Subject: Your OTP for Account Access
This email will have a code you can use as your One Time Password for instant access
A link to create a new password will be sent to the email address you have registered to your account.
Hi, this is only available to members. Join today and access the latest views on the latest developments from a professional money manager.
Our Smart Phone App will give you access to much of our content and notifications. Download for free today.
Hi, this is only available to members. Join today and access the latest views on the latest developments from a professional money manager.
JOIN NOW
Something went wrong. Please try again in a moment.
