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Weekend report

Weekend Q&A: Rate cuts are back on the table, both home and abroad

The ASX200 enjoyed another solid week, finishing up +0.8% after retesting its all-time high on Thursday following market-friendly US inflation data on Wednesday night AEST. This week was a huge win for the Doves, with major economic data in both the US and Australia pointing towards an economic slowdown and inflation that might not be as sticky as many feared throughout April
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Weekend report

Weekend Q&A: Central Banks help propel the ASX back towards its all-time high

The ASX200 enjoyed a strong week, closing up +1.6% even after a sharp drop on Thursday when the retail and banking sectors dragged the broader market lower. By Friday's close, 10 out of 11 sectors on the main board had closed higher, with only the Consumer Discretionary Sector finishing in negative territory. On the stock level, there were some standout performances on both sides of the ledger, while the local index finished 2% below its all-time high, lagging slightly on the global stage:
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Weekend report

Weekend Q&A: The Fed and US Jobs data relieves rate pressures

The ASX200 edged +0.7% higher last week as easing bond concerns saw the rate-sensitive stocks/sectors recover strongly. However, some of April's best-performing areas of the market encountered some profit-taking. For example, the Real Estate +3.2%, Tech +2.3%, and Consumer Discretionary +2.1% sectors advanced strongly, whereas the Materials Sector slipped -0.3%
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Weekend report

Weekend Q&A: Strong inflation crushes hopes of a rate cut in 2024

The ASX200 experienced a news-packed, volatile week, closing down 107 points on Friday. It might surprise some subscribers to know that the ASX200 ended the week slightly higher; it certainly didn’t feel like it on Friday. Wednesday's strong CPI print cast a long cloud over the rate-sensitive stocks/sectors. Australian credit markets are now factoring in the very real risks of a rate hike in 2024 after looking for two cuts only two months ago.
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Weekend report

Weekend Q&A: Volatility spiked on Friday after Israel launches strikes on Iran

The ASX200 endured a week to remember, closing down -2.8% on concerns that interest rates will remain “higher for longer” and increasing concerns that the Middle East tensions will deteriorate further after Israel retaliated against Iran following last week's drone attack. It's hard to imagine an amicable conclusion to the current problems in the Middle East, but we all hope it doesn't become another painful, prolonged affair like the Ukraine–Russia war, which has now entered its 26th month.
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Weekend report

Weekend Q&A: Market jitters are on the increase as reporting season offers no solace on Friday

The ASX200 edged higher last week even though eight of the eleven main sectors closed lower. The influential Resources Sector's strong performance allowed the local market to eke out a +0.2% gain, while the rate-sensitive Real Estate Sector led the declines, ending the week down -2.7%. Investors had to weigh up some very conflicting news flow on the US inflation front, with a strong CPI on Wednesday night denting hopes of three rate cuts before Christmas before a tame PPI soothed inflation concerns, which was helped by ongoing dovish commentary from a number of Fed officials, both past and present.
Read more
Weekend report

Weekend Q&A: Volatility is increasing on mixed Central Bank rhetoric

With so much conflicting data and rhetoric, it's not surprising that volatility is increasing. MM still believes global interest rates are set to fall through 2024/5; hence, we remain optimistic about equities. However, the ongoing speculation around the timing of these said cuts looks set to keep both investors and traders on their toes. We continue to believe stocks/sectors will dance to the “three steps forward, two steps back” tune over the coming months until the future path of rate moves by the RBA, Fed, et al. becomes set in stone. As we’ve pointed out a few times recently, every month of 2024 has delivered a 210-310 pullback for the ASX200, with an average of the last three pullbacks taking the index to ~7650.
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Weekend report

Weekend Q&A: Gold makes new highs post the FOMC but struggles into the weekend

The ASX advanced 1.3% last week, but it failed to follow US stocks to fresh all-time highs as the RBA ended the week on a far more hawkish footing than the Fed. The FOMC saw Jerome Powel confirm that the Fed is still looking to cut interest rates three times in 2024, whereas Michele Bullock isn’t discounting rate hikes following Australia's surprisingly strong employment data on Thursday. On Friday, the RBA delivered the sobering message that borrowers can cope with higher interest rates, which led some to suggest further hikes will follow in 2024: “Strong conditions in the labour market, the large savings buffers accumulated by many borrowers during the pandemic and rising house prices are helping households to adapt to challenging economic conditions,”.
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Weekend report

Weekend Q&A: Copper is soaring, but the banks & iron ore miners are weighing on the ASX

The ASX endured a tough session on Friday, although the 1% recovery throughout the afternoon offered some hope for the bulls, with the “Big Four Banks” leading the bounce. For example, NAB and ANZ both reversed early steep losses of between 2.5% and 3% to end the session on their highs and in positive territory. However over the week, it was Macquarie’s downgrade of the banks and further weakness in iron ore names which weighed most on the index, which ended the tough 5-days down -2.25%.
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Weekend report

Weekend Q&A: The Bulls are charging like they’ve busted the gates in Pamplona!

The ASX surged to fresh all-time highs on Friday, taking the index up +1.3% for the week and 3.4% for the year, a solid performance considering some of the big names trading ex-dividend last week. The Financial and Real Estate Sectors led the index higher while the Energy and Materials names both slipped ~0.7%; as we’ve said a number of times in 2024, the relative performance song remains the same. On the stock level, the banks led the line with heavyweight CBA making fresh all-time highs assisted by the tailwind of the takeover bid for VUK, while real estate and gold also enjoyed strong weeks:
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MM remains bullish toward the ASX200
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Weekend report

Weekend Q&A: Central Banks help propel the ASX back towards its all-time high

The ASX200 enjoyed a strong week, closing up +1.6% even after a sharp drop on Thursday when the retail and banking sectors dragged the broader market lower. By Friday's close, 10 out of 11 sectors on the main board had closed higher, with only the Consumer Discretionary Sector finishing in negative territory. On the stock level, there were some standout performances on both sides of the ledger, while the local index finished 2% below its all-time high, lagging slightly on the global stage:

Weekend report

Weekend Q&A: The Fed and US Jobs data relieves rate pressures

The ASX200 edged +0.7% higher last week as easing bond concerns saw the rate-sensitive stocks/sectors recover strongly. However, some of April's best-performing areas of the market encountered some profit-taking. For example, the Real Estate +3.2%, Tech +2.3%, and Consumer Discretionary +2.1% sectors advanced strongly, whereas the Materials Sector slipped -0.3%

Weekend report

Weekend Q&A: Strong inflation crushes hopes of a rate cut in 2024

The ASX200 experienced a news-packed, volatile week, closing down 107 points on Friday. It might surprise some subscribers to know that the ASX200 ended the week slightly higher; it certainly didn’t feel like it on Friday. Wednesday's strong CPI print cast a long cloud over the rate-sensitive stocks/sectors. Australian credit markets are now factoring in the very real risks of a rate hike in 2024 after looking for two cuts only two months ago.

Weekend report

Weekend Q&A: Volatility spiked on Friday after Israel launches strikes on Iran

The ASX200 endured a week to remember, closing down -2.8% on concerns that interest rates will remain “higher for longer” and increasing concerns that the Middle East tensions will deteriorate further after Israel retaliated against Iran following last week's drone attack. It's hard to imagine an amicable conclusion to the current problems in the Middle East, but we all hope it doesn't become another painful, prolonged affair like the Ukraine–Russia war, which has now entered its 26th month.

Weekend report

Weekend Q&A: Market jitters are on the increase as reporting season offers no solace on Friday

The ASX200 edged higher last week even though eight of the eleven main sectors closed lower. The influential Resources Sector's strong performance allowed the local market to eke out a +0.2% gain, while the rate-sensitive Real Estate Sector led the declines, ending the week down -2.7%. Investors had to weigh up some very conflicting news flow on the US inflation front, with a strong CPI on Wednesday night denting hopes of three rate cuts before Christmas before a tame PPI soothed inflation concerns, which was helped by ongoing dovish commentary from a number of Fed officials, both past and present.

Weekend report

Weekend Q&A: Volatility is increasing on mixed Central Bank rhetoric

With so much conflicting data and rhetoric, it's not surprising that volatility is increasing. MM still believes global interest rates are set to fall through 2024/5; hence, we remain optimistic about equities. However, the ongoing speculation around the timing of these said cuts looks set to keep both investors and traders on their toes. We continue to believe stocks/sectors will dance to the “three steps forward, two steps back” tune over the coming months until the future path of rate moves by the RBA, Fed, et al. becomes set in stone. As we’ve pointed out a few times recently, every month of 2024 has delivered a 210-310 pullback for the ASX200, with an average of the last three pullbacks taking the index to ~7650.

Weekend report

Weekend Q&A: Gold makes new highs post the FOMC but struggles into the weekend

The ASX advanced 1.3% last week, but it failed to follow US stocks to fresh all-time highs as the RBA ended the week on a far more hawkish footing than the Fed. The FOMC saw Jerome Powel confirm that the Fed is still looking to cut interest rates three times in 2024, whereas Michele Bullock isn’t discounting rate hikes following Australia's surprisingly strong employment data on Thursday. On Friday, the RBA delivered the sobering message that borrowers can cope with higher interest rates, which led some to suggest further hikes will follow in 2024: “Strong conditions in the labour market, the large savings buffers accumulated by many borrowers during the pandemic and rising house prices are helping households to adapt to challenging economic conditions,”.

Weekend report

Weekend Q&A: Copper is soaring, but the banks & iron ore miners are weighing on the ASX

The ASX endured a tough session on Friday, although the 1% recovery throughout the afternoon offered some hope for the bulls, with the “Big Four Banks” leading the bounce. For example, NAB and ANZ both reversed early steep losses of between 2.5% and 3% to end the session on their highs and in positive territory. However over the week, it was Macquarie’s downgrade of the banks and further weakness in iron ore names which weighed most on the index, which ended the tough 5-days down -2.25%.

Weekend report

Weekend Q&A: The Bulls are charging like they’ve busted the gates in Pamplona!

The ASX surged to fresh all-time highs on Friday, taking the index up +1.3% for the week and 3.4% for the year, a solid performance considering some of the big names trading ex-dividend last week. The Financial and Real Estate Sectors led the index higher while the Energy and Materials names both slipped ~0.7%; as we’ve said a number of times in 2024, the relative performance song remains the same. On the stock level, the banks led the line with heavyweight CBA making fresh all-time highs assisted by the tailwind of the takeover bid for VUK, while real estate and gold also enjoyed strong weeks:

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