24/09/2024 09:22

Fortescue Ltd (FMG) $17.69

It was encouraging to see FMG reverse higher even as iron ore flirted with $US90/MT during the Singapore trade. We continue to like FMG as a short-term play targeting the $19-20 area, but the medium term will depend on China's success in turning around its embattled property market.

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16/09/2024 09:00

Trade of the Week

Last week, lithium and uranium names rallied aggressively, while copper, gold, and coal names played supporting roles. However, advances by iron ore stocks were a touch more muted as China supply/demand factors weighed on the sector, e.g. Fortescue (FMG) +8.6%, RIO Tinto (RIO) +4.1%, and BHP Group (BHP) +3%.

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10/09/2024 09:32

Fortescue Ltd (FMG) $16.20

FMG also managed to edge higher on Monday, a solid performance on a day that saw equities and iron ore decline. Twiggy Forrest’s iron-ore miner traded ex-dividend 89c fully franked last week; our preferred scenario is similar to BHP, with a trading range of $15-19 being our “Best Guess” into Christmas.

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05/09/2024 09:42

Fortescue Ltd (FMG) $17.01

FMG has delayed its green hydrogen targets, enabling it to focus on what it knows best in these relatively tough times. FMG delivered an okay result in August, highlighting an underlying profit of US$5.66bn, low net debt at US$0.5bn, and a healthy 89c dividend— trading ex-dividend yesterday.

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28/08/2024 17:14

Fortescue Metals (FMG) $18.44

FMG -1.02% traded mildly lower today inline with the mining sector more broadly following a largely inline result that was slightly weak in terms of earnings, offset by a bigger than expected dividend;

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28/08/2024 09:29

Fortescue Metals (FMG) $18.63

The Iron Ore miner released FY24 results this morning, and our focus is on the dividend against a backdrop of higher capital expenditure forecast in FY25. To that end, they delivered a solid 89c fully franked for the half, worth $1.27 inclusive of franking. Based on current prices, that puts it on a 6.8% gross yield for the half, or based on our entry price ($21.62), it’s a gross yield for the half of 5.8%.

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20/08/2024 09:25

Fortescue Ltd (FMG) $17.01

FMG has plunged 43% from its 2024 high as China's woes weigh on the iron ore names; the higher the revenue dependence on the bulk commodity, the worse the performance.  We can see FMG rotating in the $16-17 area into Christmas, consolidating its recent decline, which makes the stock an interesting yield play for the brave. However, FMG reports next Wednesday, and like BSL yesterday, the forward guidance is likely to be conservative at best; hence, patience is on balance probably warranted.

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15/08/2024 09:14

Fortescue Ltd (FMG) $17.32

We had long been sceptical towards green hydrogen due to potentially better alternatives and the challenging economics. The recent capital discipline implied in the narrowing and slowing of FMG's push into green hydrogen is very welcome, given the myriad of uncertainties facing the sector. It will allay concerns that FMG could damage its balance sheet in this new and uncertain direction.

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30/07/2024 09:30

Fortescue Ltd (FMG) $20.35

JP Morgan, on behalf of an institutional investor, offered a $1.9 bn line of FMG to the market after the close on Monday. Bids were sought between $18.55 and $19.10, making the ultimate price of $18.55 an 8.8% discount to last - a weak outcome. The seller is likely to be The Capital Group, who sold $1.1bn of FMG in June at $21.60, also through JP Morgan, which was a 6% discount at the time. There is likely to be more to come, with the manager still owning ~3.4% of Twiggy Forests iron ore miner.

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25/07/2024 16:59

Fortescue Metals (FMG) $20.14

A solid update operationally, but a few issues to still iron out, cost pressure obvious and the spend on energy remains too high.

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