What Matters Today: Central Banks & corporate Australia has unleased the bulls

We remain bullish equities through December with the ASX200 Accumulation index poised to make fresh all-time highs, i.e. the ASX200, including dividends. Hopes of lower interest rates are driving the recent rally through 2024. However, investors are largely ignoring the risks of an economic contraction as the hiking cycle bites consumers and borrowers – the “Goldilocks scenario” is the market’s current preferred scenario.

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Morning report 07/11/2025 09:48

ETF Friday: Is it time to “Buy the Dip” in the AI Trade using ETFs?

The ASX 200 bounced +0.3% on Thursday, helped by a strong session for the miners and energy names. Some stability in the likes of gold and iron ore was enough to push the sector higher, with all but a handful of names posting solid gains. The top-200 surged almost 70-points in early trade, but handed back more than half those gains as momentum waned in the afternoon, led by a couple of negative surprises on the stock level:

Afternoon report 06/11/2025 17:43

The Match Out: ASX halts multi day slide, NAB result misses

The ASX 200 edged higher snapping a multi-day slide as miners and gold stocks rebounded on firmer commodity prices. Sentiment spilled over from US markets following a buy-the-dip rally on Wall Street, though the push higher was muted by a weaker session for banks after a softer result from NAB and WBC trading ex-dividend.

Morning report 06/11/2025 10:43

What Matters Today: Is the bull market in rare earths already over?

The ASX 200 slipped 0.11% on Wednesday, with investors taking a more risk-off stance across most sectors and stocks. The materials sector weighed the heaviest on the day, ably supported by tech names, which followed in the footsteps of overseas weakness across the “AI Trade”.

Afternoon report 05/11/2025 17:28

The Match Out: ASX down, Goodman reconfirms guidance

A choppy session for the ASX today, hit early to be down ~80pts at the lows, before staging an impressive recovery to finish only mildly lower. IT, Materials and Real-Estate were the main targets, with some decent moves lower in some areas, particularly the Uranium, Gold, Lithium & Rare-Earth stocks, following similar moves overseas. A higher U.S Dollar is weighing on this trade in the short term, though we don’t doubt that theme will last.

Morning report 05/11/2025 09:55

Portfolio Positioning: The RBA hits the market just when it’s down

The ASX200 fell away from the get-go on Tuesday, and was not helped by a relatively hawkish rate hold from the RBA at 2.30pm. However, not all blame should be placed at the door of Michele Bullock & Co., the market opened down and was already on the skids as the US futures fell away after valuation concerns sent Palantir Technologies Inc (PLTR US) lower, even after an impressive post-market report from the software and AI company.

Afternoon report 04/11/2025 17:09

The Match Out: Stocks drop; RBA holds rates unchanged as expected

The ASX 200 slid to a six-week low with the RBA’s final decision of the year yielding no change to the cash rate – 10/11 sectors were down on low activity due to the Melbourne Cup shenanigans

Morning report 05/11/2025 08:33

What Matters Today: Can the Banking sector defy sceptics and follow Westpac higher?

The ASX 200 produced a strong recovery on Monday afternoon to close up +0.2%, more than 0.7% off its late morning low. Westpac (WBC) drove the banks and ASX higher as investors took an increasingly bullish view of its FY25 result, the longer the day progressed - more on the banks later. In typical 2025 fashion, moves on the stock and sector level were very polarised on the first trading day of November, with the financials adding more than +38 points to the main board while materials and healthcare names detracted over -28 points.

Afternoon report 03/11/2025 17:11

The Match Out: ASX edges higher, Westpac reports & rallies

The ASX finished mildly higher on the first trading day of November, largely underpinned by a solid day for the banks with the big 4 contributing +36pts to the main boards gain as Westpac reported FY results and rallied – more on their result below.

Morning report 03/11/2025 09:52

Macro Monday: Have Central Banks & inflation changed the market dynamic?

Wall Street ended October on a strong note, with AI enthusiasm, solid corporate earnings, and looser financial conditions propelling equities to a sixth straight month of gains, while credit markets marked their third consecutive advance.

Weekend report 01/11/2025 09:49

Weekend Q&A: With a rate cut off the table, the ASX has lost a major tailwind

The ASX200 ended the week down -1.5% as rate-sensitive stocks weighed on the market following Australia's hotter than expected CPI and Jerome Powell's message that another Fed rate cut in December was no foregone conclusion. Another strong week by uranium and copper names did little to dent the selling across the healthcare, tech, real estate and retail sectors, with some big and influential names front and centre, dragging the index back under the 8900 level, even as US indices continued to post fresh highs: