20/11/2023 09:05

Commodities

Crude oil bounced on Friday after making fresh 4-month lows earlier in November after Goldman Sachs said, “We believe OPEC+ will ensure that Brent oil prices end in the $US80-100 range through 2024 by ensuring a moderate deficit and leveraging its pricing power”. OPEC+ is set to meet in Vienna later this week, which looks to have seen traders/investors who held short positions taking profits after the 5-week decline.

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17/11/2023 09:22

Global Markets

Crude oil tumbled over -4% overnight, posting fresh 4-month lows in the process, an excellent move for central banks due to the knock-on effect on inflation. Prices fell as much as 5% at one stage as inventories rose and industrial production fell by 0.69%, with the numbers supporting the slower demand theory. OPEC meet on the 26th; it will be interesting to see if they attempt to engineer anything to arrest the free fall.

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08/11/2023 09:16

Global Markets

US indices rallied overnight, led again by the major tech stocks, the FANG+ Index is now less than 6% below its all-time high, a level we believe will be breached into 2024, although that’s no longer a particularly big call. The NASDAQ closed up another +0.9%, while the Dow only managed to advance +0.2%, with some very different stories under the hood on the sector level, energy and materials struggled.

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06/11/2023 09:00

Commodities

Crude oil is testing 3-month lows even as war rages in the Middle East and the risks of contagion remain very real, i.e. the path of least resistance is down. Central banks don’t always get what they want, but this time, we feel they will, with lower oil prices helping reduce inflation into 2024 – good news for interest rate-sensitive sectors such as real estate.

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23/10/2023 08:46

Commodities

Crude oil closed unchanged last week, largely ignoring tensions in the Middle East which should have been supportive of the commodity, i.e. we don’t like markets that cannot rally with fundamental tailwinds.

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10/10/2023 09:22

Do we prefer Oil or Gold in the current environment?

Gold and crude oil have risen due to the conflict between Israel and Palestine and likely prolonged Middle East tensions. Overnight, both saw strong moves on the upside, with gold advancing +1.7% and crude oil +4.1%. We can argue that both commodities look bullish into Christmas, although we feel they are at different stages of their post-COVID advance.

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05/10/2023 09:02

Global Markets

US stocks rallied overnight, with the tech giants leading the way as Treasury yields slid lower following weaker-than-expected jobs data saw buying return to equities, with Microsoft (MSFT US) and Alphabet (GOOGL US) both advancing over +2% while Tesla (TSLA US) stood out surging +6%.

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03/10/2023 09:17

Commodities

Brent crude oil retreated ~2% overnight on concerns about demand from China and the US. The commodity has now slipped 5% from last month's high, but in the scheme of the rally since June, it is nothing major. However, if we do see increased fears of a global recession courtesy of a central bank's hawkish policy, losses could easily be compounded.

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28/09/2023 09:16

Global Markets

US stocks closed mixed overnight, with 5 of the 11 sectors closing higher, led by a strong +2.5% advance by the Oil Sector. US Treasuries fell (yields higher), while oil prices rallied, but a strong +0.85% rally by the S&P500  from its intraday lows was impressive after the likes of tech tested our previously flagged support levels.

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25/09/2023 09:27

Commodities

Brent crude oil finally paused at the end of last week after pushing higher throughout the month. At this stage, it's nothing to upset the bulls, just a logical reaction to the hawkish Fed commentary.

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