Tuesday saw the ASX200 get smacked 1% as Vladimir Putin ordered troops into the breakaway zones of Ukraine, it looks like sanctions and geopolitical uncertainty are on the menu over the coming weeks / months. Unfortunately the Russian President appears very comfortable to test the UN’s resolve as he starts advancing his pawns in an initial gambit towards Biden and the West, unfortunately this is a very real game with peoples lives at stake as opposed to an enjoyable game of chess.
The ASX200 enjoyed a sharp turnaround yesterday as the news crossed our screens in late morning that Joe Biden and Vladimir Putin had agreed to hold talks over the Ukraine / Russia situation – the can gets kicked down the road and war is averted at least for now. We cannot imagine Russia will mount an assault into Eastern Europe after so much stoushing between the respective parties, it would hardly be a surprise attack although it doesn’t feel like anyone will actually stop them. After months of brinkmanship on Ukraine’s border it’s...
After only 7-weeks 2022 has certainly felt like a volatile year but a quick glance at the Volatility / Fear Index would question this interpretation, we may have experienced plenty of action above the average of the last 10-15 years but we haven’t witnessed any sheer panic as we did when markets fell in 2018 around bond yield concerns or like the chaos after US Debt Downgrade in 2011. We have 2 theories why the escalation in volatility has been relatively orderly:
The ASX200 managed to close out Thursday in positive territory but only just after US equity futures turned lower following reports on social media alleging that Ukrainian forces had shelled Russian forces in the self-proclaimed Lugansk People’s Republic - the unconfirmed news reports came from the Sputnik Russian state-affiliated media. The rumours quickly wiped away 85% of the local markets midday gains with the drop illustrating the manner in which heightened geo-political tensions...
The ASX200 enjoyed a strong session on Wednesday although it was struggling into lunch as the “sell the strength” mentality that’s dominated most of 2022 took hold as S&P500 futures wobbled however solid broad based buying from 11am pushed the market higher and the index finally closed up more than 1% with 85% of stocks closing positive for the day. A few weeks ago we targeted some consolidation in the 7200 – 7400 region, in hindsight we underestimated how much it needed a rest and its been an even tighter range but still an encouraging...
Tuesday saw the ASX200 drift lower through the afternoon to finally close down 0.5%, again we saw more stocks in the losers corner but it was another sharp decline by iron ore, and its related miners, which overshadowed a recovery by the tech names. BHP Group (BHP) was the best of the bunch only slipping 0.3% after delivering a solid scorecard yesterday as it showcased the fruits of rising commodity prices for miners – if inflation & interest rates have bottomed we could indeed be in the early stages of a “Super cycle” for the Resources Sector.
The ASX200 put in another solid performance yesterday to start off the week by ignoring Fridays 500-point plunge by the Dow to close up an impressive 0.4%, as we’ve said previously the more time the index can consolidate above 7200 the higher our conviction becomes that it can test 7600 in the coming months. However yesterday’s buying wasn’t broad based with only 42% of the index closing in positive territory but when the banks are extremely strong it usually translates to gains in the index e.g. Westpac (WBC) rallied +4.8%. We feel like the ASX wants to rally but overseas jitters around...
By the end of last week we saw the Ukraine takeover from inflation as the main driver of market sentiment & focus. Local equities managed to finish the week with reasonable gains but US indices succumbed to increasing tensions between Vladimir Putin and most of the developed world with Fridays losses dragging indices into negative territory for the week. The huge swing in investors / traders focus was most noticeable in bond yields:
The ASX200 rallied 0.3% on Thursday although unfortunately it lost around 70% of its early morning gains as profit taking appeared to roll through the broad market with over half of the market finally closing down on the day. The local index has already rallied 2.3% this week and 4.5% this month hence its not surprising a few nervous investors / traders took some money from the table, remember it was only 2-weeks ago the market was in the middle of an 11% plunge that had most commentators discussing bear markets. Our best guess is the index now consolidates recent gyrations in the 7200-7400 region but overall our preference is...
The ASX200 rallied strongly yesterday following a good result and subsequent surge by Commonwealth Bank (CBA) – the company beat market expectations by around 5% which led to a 5.6% advance by Australia’s 2nd largest stock. The bank will be trading ex-dividend, $1.75 fully franked next week which must be very tempting for the yield hungry investors. The sentiment which emanated from CBA’s result was far reaching with 87% of stocks posting gains, only the Energy & Materials Sectors slipped slightly after...
The ASX200 enjoyed a sharp turnaround yesterday as the news crossed our screens in late morning that Joe Biden and Vladimir Putin had agreed to hold talks over the Ukraine / Russia situation – the can gets kicked down the road and war is averted at least for now. We cannot imagine Russia will mount an assault into Eastern Europe after so much stoushing between the respective parties, it would hardly be a surprise attack although it doesn’t feel like anyone will actually stop them. After months of brinkmanship on Ukraine’s border it’s...
After only 7-weeks 2022 has certainly felt like a volatile year but a quick glance at the Volatility / Fear Index would question this interpretation, we may have experienced plenty of action above the average of the last 10-15 years but we haven’t witnessed any sheer panic as we did when markets fell in 2018 around bond yield concerns or like the chaos after US Debt Downgrade in 2011. We have 2 theories why the escalation in volatility has been relatively orderly:
The ASX200 managed to close out Thursday in positive territory but only just after US equity futures turned lower following reports on social media alleging that Ukrainian forces had shelled Russian forces in the self-proclaimed Lugansk People’s Republic - the unconfirmed news reports came from the Sputnik Russian state-affiliated media. The rumours quickly wiped away 85% of the local markets midday gains with the drop illustrating the manner in which heightened geo-political tensions...
The ASX200 enjoyed a strong session on Wednesday although it was struggling into lunch as the “sell the strength” mentality that’s dominated most of 2022 took hold as S&P500 futures wobbled however solid broad based buying from 11am pushed the market higher and the index finally closed up more than 1% with 85% of stocks closing positive for the day. A few weeks ago we targeted some consolidation in the 7200 – 7400 region, in hindsight we underestimated how much it needed a rest and its been an even tighter range but still an encouraging...
Tuesday saw the ASX200 drift lower through the afternoon to finally close down 0.5%, again we saw more stocks in the losers corner but it was another sharp decline by iron ore, and its related miners, which overshadowed a recovery by the tech names. BHP Group (BHP) was the best of the bunch only slipping 0.3% after delivering a solid scorecard yesterday as it showcased the fruits of rising commodity prices for miners – if inflation & interest rates have bottomed we could indeed be in the early stages of a “Super cycle” for the Resources Sector.
The ASX200 put in another solid performance yesterday to start off the week by ignoring Fridays 500-point plunge by the Dow to close up an impressive 0.4%, as we’ve said previously the more time the index can consolidate above 7200 the higher our conviction becomes that it can test 7600 in the coming months. However yesterday’s buying wasn’t broad based with only 42% of the index closing in positive territory but when the banks are extremely strong it usually translates to gains in the index e.g. Westpac (WBC) rallied +4.8%. We feel like the ASX wants to rally but overseas jitters around...
By the end of last week we saw the Ukraine takeover from inflation as the main driver of market sentiment & focus. Local equities managed to finish the week with reasonable gains but US indices succumbed to increasing tensions between Vladimir Putin and most of the developed world with Fridays losses dragging indices into negative territory for the week. The huge swing in investors / traders focus was most noticeable in bond yields:
The ASX200 rallied 0.3% on Thursday although unfortunately it lost around 70% of its early morning gains as profit taking appeared to roll through the broad market with over half of the market finally closing down on the day. The local index has already rallied 2.3% this week and 4.5% this month hence its not surprising a few nervous investors / traders took some money from the table, remember it was only 2-weeks ago the market was in the middle of an 11% plunge that had most commentators discussing bear markets. Our best guess is the index now consolidates recent gyrations in the 7200-7400 region but overall our preference is...
The ASX200 rallied strongly yesterday following a good result and subsequent surge by Commonwealth Bank (CBA) – the company beat market expectations by around 5% which led to a 5.6% advance by Australia’s 2nd largest stock. The bank will be trading ex-dividend, $1.75 fully franked next week which must be very tempting for the yield hungry investors. The sentiment which emanated from CBA’s result was far reaching with 87% of stocks posting gains, only the Energy & Materials Sectors slipped slightly after...
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