06/03/2024 09:43

Active Growth Portfolio – Amendments

We are making several changes to the Active Growth Portfolio

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05/03/2024 09:48

Switch Lendlease (LLC) into Corporate Travel (CTD)

LLC $6.27 - delivered a poor result last month, which was a significant disappointment after guidance in December was reiterated; the stocks down -16.1% so far in 2024, and MM hasn’t been slow to criticise LLC after its recent result. We also think there is an outside chance they may need capital with the balance sheet under some short term pressure, depending on the patience of lenders and how they look at covenants. They have a planned Investor Day on  May which is the next catalyst, however the stock looks heavy following downgrades across the board after their result.

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19/02/2024 16:58

Lendlease (LLC) $6.46

LLC -13.98%: It was hard to find anything in today’s result that was a positive, other than perhaps this is as bad as it gets for the property company. 1H24 results  were a huge miss to expectations, with a core operating profit after tax of $61m, down -42% YoY and ~70% below consensus. While this is clearly a poor 6-months, we don’t think it’s the reason for the share price weakness given the period was always going to be a tough one.

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08/02/2024 08:55

Lendlease Corp (LLC) $7.39

This globally integrated real estate group is a turnaround play, which is taking its time remaining unchanged from where we bought it mid-last year. LLC has reduced balance sheet pressure over recent months, and although the sales were thought by many to be the “low-hanging fruit”, we believe that refocusing on being an investment-led operation in core countries with select projects while building a bigger funds management operation will enable the business to achieve its goals in the medium term.

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21/12/2023 09:06

Lendlease Corp Ltd (LLC) $7.33

LLC has bounced ~27%, outperforming the market since November's rally commenced, but they are in a turnaround phase which is throwing up some additional risks.  We are weighing up its underlying quality versus its recovery potential moving forward.

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20/12/2023 09:12

Lendlease Corp Ltd (LLC) $7.30

On Monday, we saw LLC announce the sale of 12 communities projects for $1.063bn to Stockland (SGP) with a potential for another $239m, subject to an option held by SGP. The price reflects a ~20% premium to book value, and the sale should add $130-160m of NPAT to LLC's FY24 result, which reads well on the surface.

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14/11/2023 09:28

Lendlease Corp Ltd (LLC) $6.28

LLC has struggled since interest rates started to advance, but they’ve arguably magnified the sector's weakness, e.g. the stock is down another ~20% in 2023 alone. We have a core bullish outlook on bonds and bearish yields, which should finally offer a tailwind for LLC into 2024, it feels overdue to average or cut as the stock plumbs multi-year lows

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24/10/2023 09:04

Lend Lease Corp (LLC) $6.48

LLC has fallen in tandem with rising bond yields but as we have a core bullish outlook on bonds and bearish yields, we are giving this position more room even as it plumbs multi-year lows, but we are not considering increasing our exposure. We note this move goes against the classic “value add” theory of cutting losses, especially for stocks making new lows, and we would be out if it weren’t for our macro view around interest rates.

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10/10/2023 09:20

Lendlease Corp Ltd (LLC) $6.85

Back in Q3 of 2023, we took three relatively small positions in Lendlease (LLC), Elders (ELD) and Magellan Financial Group (MFG) in our Growth Portfolio, looking for some performance reversion from the years underperformers – this call looks set to receive the annual wooden spoon, with almost 25% of the year still remaining.

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14/08/2023 16:31

Lendlease (LLC) $8.24

LLC -2.83%: Fell today after reporting FY23 results that were inline in terms of underlying net profit ($257m), however, it was low quality and their reconfirmed guidance requires a few moving parts to align.

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