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Undervalued
Morningstar Quantitative Rating as of 28 OCT 2026.
Quantitative Equity Rating Methodology – view here
Five-star price 36.70 Fair value 39.90 One-star price 43.37
Morningstar Quantitative Rating as of 28 OCT 2026.
Morningstar Quantitative Rating as of 28 OCT 2026. The slider runs from the five-star price (36.70) to the one-star price (43.37).
| Ratios |
|---|
| Currency (Price/reporting): AUD/USD |
| Exchange Rate: 1.4236 |
| Price - closing or last bid | 32.74 |
| Price - 12 month high | 35.82 |
| Price - 12 month low | 22.25 |
| Pricing date | 28 OCT 2026 |
| Volume - avg. trading volume for the last ten days | 4.74 |
| Market capitalization | 62,242.02 |
| 12 Month High price date | 31 MAR 2026 |
| 12 Month Low price date | 19 DEC 2025 |
| Volume - avg. trading volume for the last 3 months | 4.40 |
| Price - 1 Day % Change | 1.90% |
| Price - 13 week price percent change | 1.39% |
| Price - 26 week price percent change | 1.05% |
| Price - 5 Day % Change | -3.59% |
| Price - 52 week price percent change | 34.95% |
| Price - YTD price percent change | 38.79% |
| Price % Change Month To Date | 3.05% |
| EPS excluding extraordinary items - most recent fiscal year | 1.420 |
| EPS excluding extraordinary items - trailing 12 month | 1.605 |
| EPS Normalized - most recent fiscal year | 1.384 |
| Revenue/share - most recent fiscal year | 6.786 |
| Revenue/share - trailing 12 month | 7.227 |
| Book value per share - most recent fiscal year | 18.783 |
| Book value per share - most recent half-year | 18.828 |
| Book value (tangible) per share - most recent fiscal year | 18.405 |
| Book value (tangible) per share - most recent half-year | 19.393 |
| Cash per share - most recent fiscal year | 3.005 |
| Cash per share - most recent half-year | 2.282 |
| Cash Flow per share - most recent fiscal year | 3.764 |
| Cash Flow per share - trailing 12 month | 3.825 |
| Dividend per share - most recent fiscal year | 1.120 |
| Dividends per share - trailing 12 month | 1.630 |
| EBITD per share - trailing 12 month | 4.762 |
| EPS Basic excluding extraordinary items - most recent fiscal year | 1.434 |
| EPS Basic excluding extraordinary items - trailing 12 month | 1.622 |
| EPS including extraordinary items - most recent fiscal year | 1.434 |
| EPS including extraordinary items - trailing 12 month | 1.622 |
| Free Cash Flow per share - trailing 12 month | 0.292 |
| P/E excluding extraordinary items, most recent fiscal year | 13.82 |
| P/E Normalized, most recent fiscal year | 15.52 |
| Price to sales - most recent fiscal year | 3.07 |
| Price to Tangible Book - most fiscal year | 1.38 |
| Price to Free Cash Flow per Share - most recent fiscal year | 75.85 |
| Price to Cash Flow per share - trailing 12 month | 5.80 |
| Price to Book - most recent fiscal year | 1.20 |
| P/E excluding extraordinary items high, trailing 12 months | 16.25 |
| P/E excluding extraordinary items low, trailing 12 months | 9.56 |
| Net Debt, LFI | 9,214.00 |
| Net Debt, LFY | 7,781.00 |
| Dividend Yield - 5 Year Average | 6.50% |
| Dividend Yield - indicated annual dividend divided by closing price | 4.91% |
| Current Dividend Yield - Common Stock Primary Issue, LTM | 4.98% |
| Free Cash Flow - most recent fiscal year | -772.00 |
| LT debt/equity - most recent fiscal year | 32.08% |
| Payout ratio - most recent fiscal year | 78.87% |
| Total debt/total equity - most recent fiscal year | 34.44% |
| LT debt/equity - most recent half-year | 29.68% |
| Total debt/total equity - most recent half-year | 32.77% |
| Free Cash Flow - trailing 12 month | 560.00 |
| Payout ratio - trailing 12 month | 72.27% |
| Revenue - most recent fiscal year | 12,984.00 |
| Revenue - trailing 12 month | 13,840.00 |
| EBITD - most recent fiscal year | 9,095.00 |
| EBITD - trailing 12 month | 9,119.00 |
| Earnings before taxes - most recent fiscal year | 3,849.00 |
| Earnings before taxes - trailing 12 month | 4,130.00 |
| Net Income available to common - most recent fiscal year | 2,718.00 |
| Net Income available to common - trailing 12 months | 3,074.00 |
| Earnings before taxes Normalized - most recent fiscal year | 3,603.00 |
| Net Income Available to Common, Normalized - most recent fiscal year | 2,649.00 |
| Earnings per Share, Normalized, Excluding Extraordinary Items, Avg. Diluted Shares Outstanding, TTM | 1.43 |
| Net Profit Margin % - 1st historical fiscal year | 21.08% |
| Net Profit Margin % - trailing 12 month | 22.25% |
| Operating margin - 1st historical fiscal year | 34.94% |
| Operating margin - trailing 12 month | 34.92% |
| Pretax margin - trailing 12 month | 29.84% |
| Pretax margin - 1st historical fiscal year | 29.64% |
| Operating Margin - 5 year average | 46.03% |
| Pretax Margin - 5 year average | 37.60% |
| Free Operating Cash Flow/Revenue, 5 Year Average | 14.90% |
| Free Operating Cash Flow/Revenue, TTM | 4.05% |
| Net Profit Margin - 5 year average | 25.88% |
| Return on average assets - most recent fiscal year | 4.26% |
| Return on average assets - trailing 12 month | 4.64% |
| Return on average equity - most recent fiscal year | 7.73% |
| Return on average equity - trailing 12 month | 8.64% |
| Return on average assets - 5 year average | 7.01% |
| Return on average equity - 5 year average | 12.24% |
| Net Income/employee - most recent fiscal year | — |
| Revenue/employee - most recent fiscal year | — |
| Revenue growth rate, 5 year | 29.25% |
| EPS growth rate, 5 year | — |
| Growth rate% - dividend, 3 year | -21.02% |
| Revenue/share (5 yr growth) | 12.38% |
| Growth rate% - Revenue, 3 year | -8.26% |
| Growth rate% - EPS, 3 year | -30.68% |
| Book value per share growth rate, 5 year | 8.40% |
| Capital Spending growth rate, 5 year | 41.25% |
| Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation & Amortization, 5 Year CAGR | — |
Financial forecast (AUD, millions except per share)
| Actuals | Estimates | |||||||
| 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | |||||
| Estimate breakdown | ||||||||
Financials (USD, millions)
| Period end: | DEC 21 | DEC 22 | DEC 23 | DEC 24 | DEC 25 |
| Fiscal year: | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
| Period length: | 12 months | 12 months | 12 months | 12 months | 12 months |
Announcements
| DATE | TIME | HEADING | PAGES |
| Price sensitive |
We’ve had WDS as a “Chart of the week” before and the story remains the same: WDS looks great and headed to fresh 2026 highs implying that oil prices have further upside. This has concerned us in the past but for now markets are demonstrating significant resilience to the surging oil price so we are doing the same.
The chart of WDS shown below is one that’s concerned us in recent months, i.e. it’s bullish suggesting oil will remain firm, stoking inflation, weighing on rate-sensitive stocks. Both charts shown on the energy sector today suggest oil prices will be higher for longer, but of course with plenty of volatility along the way.
Technically Woodside looks great, especially when we throw the interest from Exxon into the mix. However, we are also bearish towards crude oil over the coming weeks/months. Hence, MM is unlikely to buy WDS for now, but into weakness, if it eventuates, the risk/reward will be interesting.
Woodside slipped more than 4% on Monday, a very similar decline to the oil price during our time zone. The stock is still up ~30% year-to-date, lagging oil prices, which are up ~50%.
Energy stocks have lagged the move in oil prices, and the reason comes down to how the market prices future earnings. The Iran conflict and disruption to Persian Gulf supply drove a sharp spike in near-term oil prices—a clear windfall for producers, but longer-dated futures moved less aggressively, even though they did rise.
Given its sheer size, it's no surprise that the Woodside (ASX:WDS) chart is virtually indistinguishable from the ASX200 Energy sector - where it goes, the sector largely follows. WDS delivered a strong 1H26 result just before the war broke out.
WDS is enjoying strong energy prices, having surged ~50% higher in 2026, and it's starting to slowly get ahead of the oil price. The last time WDS was trading at ~$35 back in 2023, Brent Crude was ~20% lower, suggesting a decent move to the downside when the news improves around the conflict, but at this stage, the oil price is telling us there remains a very real chance that things could get worse before they improve.
Woodside (WDS) punches to fresh 2-year highs as the Iranian conflict continues to escalate.
WDS is likely to surrender a decent portion of its recent gains this morning after oils dramatic reversal overnight. Its hard to a determine a “fair value” on WDS with oil moving more than 30% in one session but a pullback towards $28 wouldn’t surprise, or ~10% lower. Even with oil testing $US120 on Monday, WDS was trading close to 20% below its 2023 high, keeping it in the too basket for MM.
WDS +2.4%: A strong day on the back of rising oil prices, Woodside delivered a solid result with record oil production and a better-than-expected dividend catching a market that had been bracing for a more conservative stance given the heavy project spend underway.
MM is bullish towards WDS, targeting ~10-15% upside.
MM is bullish towards Woodside (WDS) below $33
MM is bullish towards WDS around US$23
MM is neutral towards Woodside around $31
MM is neutral towards WDS around $33
MM is cautiously bullish towards WDS around $35
MM is neutral toward Woodside Energy (WDS) around $33
MM is neutral towards WDS around $30
MM is bullish toward WDS
MM remains cautiously bullish towards WDS around $24
Incorporated in 1954 and named after the small Victorian town of Woodside, Woodside's early exploration focus moved from Victoria's Gippsland Basin to Western Australia's Carnarvon Basin. First LNG production from the North West Shelf camein 1984. BHP Billiton and Shell each had 40% shareholdings before BHP sold out in 1994 and Shell sold down to 34%. In 2017, Shell sold its entire shareholding. Woodside is one of the most LNG-leveraged companies globally.
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