25/08/2023 11:04

Flagship Growth Portfolio – Amendments

We are making multiple changes to the Flagship Growth Portfolio

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25/08/2023 09:27

Northern Star Resources (NST) v Newcrest Mining (NCM)

Northern Star (NST) will soon become the largest Australian-owned gold miner, post-Newmont’s acquisition of Newcrest and it rallied +5.2%  yesterday after reporting a solid +9% increase in revenue. Shareholders will receive a 15.5c dividend next month while the $300mn on-market buyback has been extended for an additional 12 months – only 42% was complete on June 30th.  This solid result is the catalyst for our planned switch from NCM which is now trading ~4%  below its theoretical all-stock takeover price – year-to-date NST is up +1.5% while NCM has soared +25%.

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18/08/2023 09:10

Newcrest Mining (NCM) v Northern Star Resources (NST)

MM has 5% of our Flagship Growth Portfolio in NCM, the stocks been a significant outperformer in 2023 rallying +21.5% courtesy of the takeover bid from the world’s largest gold company Newmont Corp (NEM US).

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11/08/2023 16:53

Newcrest Mining (NCM) $25.85

NCM -0.38%: A solid FY23 result today for Australia’s largest gold company that is currently under takeover from US-listed Newmont (NEM US). Underlying profit of $778 million, was down 11% on the year but above consensus of $703m.

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28/07/2023 09:25

Newcrest Mining (NCM) v Regis Resources (RRL)

MM is looking to switch part of our gold exposure from NCM hence when we see fellow gold miner RRL fall -10.8% in one day, while NCM rallies +0.6%, it catches our attention especially when yesterday’s move followed the trend of 2023 which has seen NCM advance +31% while RRL is only up 1.5%.

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27/07/2023 09:31

Newcrest Mining (NCM) v Northern Star Resources (NST)

A picture doesn’t always tell the whole story, this chart makes NST and NCM look very similar yet year-to-date NCM has rallied +31% while NST has only gained +6%. At this stage our patience feels vindicated but we will eventually switch out of NCM to avoid holding ‘annoying’ CDI’s which will be listed in Australia.

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25/07/2023 16:57

Newcrest (NCM) $26.50

NCM +0.08%: NCM reported June quarter production numbers this morning that were on the weaker side, the bid from Newmont (NEM US) looks to be somewhat of a get-out-of-jail-free card here. They produced 556koz gold in the period, ~4% below expectations which put upward pressure on costs.

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20/07/2023 09:27

Newcrest Mining (NCM) v Northern Star Resources (NST)

Takeover target NCM is this morning trading 4.6% below its theoretical purchase price by NEM, although this changes with multiple factors at play, our question is rapidly becoming where to put the money as we plan to maintain an overweight stance toward the sector. So far in 2023 NST is +22.6% while NCM has surged +35% courtesy of an all-scrip takeover bid from NEM.

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06/07/2023 09:05

Newcrest Mining Ltd (NCM) $27.30

NCM is under a takeover bid from Newmont Corp which we believe will ultimately prove successful hence we are looking for an opportune time to switch our 5% position in our Flagship Growth Portfolio to another local gold stock – because the bid by (NEM US) is stock-based the day to day swings in NCM are now largely determined by moves by its US suitor.

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19/05/2023 09:00

Newcrest Mining Ltd (NCM) $27.51

We put out an alert on Thursday morning saying we would sell NCM at $29, we were inundated with questions by members to explain our logic, especially as the stock opened at $27.60. The selling price was based on the valuation we attributed to NCM based on Newmont’s (NEM US) bid plus the risk of an unlikely breakdown between the 2 miners, movements in the gold price and the $A.

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