17/06/2022 09:56

Newcrest Mining Ltd (NCM) $23.90

You only have to walk into a mine to feel the raw energy being used and NCM is no exception, but the predominantly gold play is far more correlated to the sentiment towards precious metals and the $US, especially over the short to medium term. This is one sector of the ASX which looks particularly good today aided by its often perceived safety status – we can see NCM rallying 10-20% over the...

Read more

26/05/2022 08:45

Newcrest Mining Ltd (NCM) $25.27

Australia’s largest gold player has held up far better than most of its local peers but aggressive investors / traders should recognize its likely to rally less if gold does indeed rally +US100/oz i.e. this is a low Beta play on the gold price. MM likes NCM into any weakness around the $25 area targeting another test of $29 through 2022.

Read more

05/05/2022 09:16

Newcrest Mining Ltd (NCM) $26.19

The correlation between NCM and the underlying gold price is undeniable however we believe both have held up relatively well in the face of soaring bond yields and strength in the $US. If we are correct that bond yields are due a rest and tech can bounce the likelihood is gold and NCM will follow suit, just as we saw overnight, hence at this stage we remain comfortable with our long NCM position.

Read more

27/04/2022 09:17

Flagship Growth Portfolio

The MM Growth Portfolio fell -2.02% last week which is never nice to see but it noticeably outperformed the market which fell -3.3% i.e. it paid off to be underweight the resources. Cash now sits at 2%.  We again saw some clear sector rotation with the defensives improving, in our portfolio we saw BHP Group (BHP) -14.1%, HUB24 (HUB) -8.1% and Newcrest (NCM) -4.8% while in the winner’s enclosure we saw Virgin Money (VUK) +4.8%, Goodman Group (GMG) +4.3% and Qantas (QAN) +2.8%.

Read more

13/04/2022 08:46

Newcrest Mining (NCM) $27.86

Gold stocks generally and Newcrest specifically have been in the naughty corner for what feels like an eternity as Gold failed to make any sustained headway over the past 6 months.  As discussed earlier in the week, we are now bullish on Gold and feel like our patience will be rewarded in NCM. Mining stocks trade on a multiple of their net present value (NPV), a bullish multiple would...

Read more

30/03/2022 09:31

Flagship Growth Portfolio

The portfolio added +1.23% last week while cash sits at 9%. We again saw miners / banks figure strongly in the winners enclosure including BHP Group (BHP) +9%, Newcrest Mining (NCM) +6.3%, and Macquarie Group (MQG) +4% while our main laggards were HUB24 (HUB) -7.5%, ResMed (RMD) -6.6% and a2 Milk (A2M) -0.9%.

Read more

23/03/2022 09:31

Flagship Growth Portfolio

The MM Growth Portfolio added +3.41% last week while cash sits at 9%. We had a mixed bag in the winners enclosure including BHP Group (BHP) +7.6%, Macquarie Group (MQG) +6.3% and Xero (XRO) +6.3% while the main laggards were Newcrest (NCM) +0.6%, Woolworths (WOW) +1.1% and CSL Ltd (CSL) +0.6% - a rare and pleasing case of all stocks in the portfolio closing up for the week.

Read more

16/03/2022 09:23

Flagship Growth Portfolio

The Flagship Growth Portfolio rallied +1.22% last week while cash sits at 7%. Performance was helped by Commonwealth Bank (CBA) +8.6%, Qantas (QAN) +8.4%, HUB24 (HUB) +7.8% while the laggards were predominantly from our remaining resources exposure, Newcrest Mining (NCM) -6.7% and BHP Group (BHP) -6.51%.

Read more

09/03/2022 09:23

Flagship Growth Portfolio

The MM Growth Portfolio slipped -0.16% outperforming the market which fell around 1.4%. The solid (relative) week was helped by Whitehaven Coal (WHC) +20.4%, Newcrest (NCM) +9.3% and Santos (STO) +9% while the laggards were Virgin Money (VUK) -16.7%, Qantas (QAN) -12.4% and Aristocrat (ALL) -9.9%.

Read more

08/03/2022 09:42

Newcrest Mining Ltd (NCM) $27.37

NCM has been even more disappointing than STO when it comes to taking its lead from the underlying commodity prices i.e. the last time gold was above $US2,000/oz NCM was trading around $35, or over 25% higher! This is a great example of the multi layered requirements to deliver alpha (relative portfolio performance) i.e. you can pick the market, sector and commodity perfectly but it still doesn’t mean the company or stock will meet expectations.

Read more