The ASX200 rallied +0.6% on Monday despite an average day on the reporting front which saw Fortescue (FMG) -5.1% and NEXTDC (NXT) -2.6% both fall after delivering their earnings numbers/forward guidance. However, on the day there were some very influential names in the winner's enclosure such as CSL Ltd (CSL) +1.7%, BHP Group (BHP) +1.2%, and Commonwealth Bank (CBA) +1.2% which when combined with over 60% of the main board advancing was enough to send the index higher.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell made it abundantly clear in his speech from Jackson Hole that the central bank would keep tightening if required to bring inflation back to its 2% target - its currently sitting at 3.2% after peaking above 9% in June 2022. As Powell reiterated from Wyoming “It’s the Fed’s job to bring inflation down to our 2% goal and we will do so”. Obviously, no mention was made about how/why the genie had escaped the lamp in the first place but we must acknowledge they have performed a solid job of reining it back in over the last ~18 months. Other comments while fairly hawkish were no surprise to MM:
Thursday again saw company earnings/forecasts dominate proceedings with 3 stocks falling between 10 & 12% while the best 3 performers averaged a gain of just over 7%. Unfortunately, It was a reporting day to forget for MM with 3 of our positions in the Flagship Growth Portfolio finding themselves in the proverbial naughty corner. The trend of the last 12-18 months is being magnified to almost extreme levels with plenty of stocks making fresh multi-year lows while a number of winners are nudging all-time highs. We are considering carefully a couple of our standout underperformers as we contemplate whether we should be adding or cutting i.e. will the weak simply keep getting weaker?
At MM we are not always contrarian investors but when we see Fund Managers have become the most bullish in 18 months just as stocks start to wobble in August our initial thought is should we start to skew portfolios more defensively? Funds managers are becoming increasingly optimistic around the US avoiding a recession with 31% of managers polled in the August survey now expecting no recession in 2024, up from 19% in July and 14% in June.
The ASX200 edged higher on Tuesday as reporting season dominated local stocks although attention is slowly moving towards Jackson Hole where we hope to get a read into the current mindset of central bankers. While we don’t expect any forward guidance from Powell and Lagarde, they won’t be telling us when/what the next move will be for interest rates, there are likely to be clues as to their current feelings, a common occurrence during their closely followed speeches.
The ASX Telco index is dominated by Telstra (TLS) but through 2023 its been a very mixed bag for the four main stocks with TPG Telecom (TPG) +9.8% best on ground while Spark NZ (SPK) -7.6% has carried the wooden spoon, TLS is down just -0.6% underperforming the ASX200 which is up over +1% year-to-date.
The ASX200 ended last week down another -2.6% taking August’s pullback to -3.5% with nine trading days remaining. Risk sentiment has been significantly dampened by an ever-hawkish Fed and a Chinese economy that is struggling to regain its “mojo” post the country's severe zero-COVID policy – strict lockdowns have exacerbated issues in the likes of property that were already surfacing in China. Last week we saw the PBOC cut rates for the second time since June.
The gold price has struggled since its May high with the a recovery by the $US and firm bond yields weighing on precious metals i.e. when you can get 5% on deposit in the bank, gold and its respective stocks need to advance 5% just to match this risk-free rate of return - a far different story to when rates are at zero! At MM we continue to believe that bond yields are at/close to a pivot high that should deliver an improving tailwind to the Gold Sector over the coming quarters.
The US FAANG+ Index has now corrected over -10% from its July high, nothing too sinister in our opinion considering its still up over +65% year to date. The overnight weakness is being attributed to the hawkish Fed minutes but we believe it’s more a case of negative sentiment from China combining with a market that’s rallied very strongly over the last 9 months i.e. its simply being in need of a rest.
The initial reaction to the stimulatory move by the PBOC was positive with resource stocks in particular reversing early losses e.g. BHP Group (BHP) rallied +50c from its lows but by the close it had surrendered half of the move to end down -0.3%. The move by the PBOC came in as China suspended reporting youth unemployment rates from August, that’s one way to hide souring numbers. In our opinion, the Politburo, China's prime decision-making body, will need to pull more levels to turn around their juggernaut economy and consumer sentiment.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell made it abundantly clear in his speech from Jackson Hole that the central bank would keep tightening if required to bring inflation back to its 2% target - its currently sitting at 3.2% after peaking above 9% in June 2022. As Powell reiterated from Wyoming “It’s the Fed’s job to bring inflation down to our 2% goal and we will do so”. Obviously, no mention was made about how/why the genie had escaped the lamp in the first place but we must acknowledge they have performed a solid job of reining it back in over the last ~18 months. Other comments while fairly hawkish were no surprise to MM:
Thursday again saw company earnings/forecasts dominate proceedings with 3 stocks falling between 10 & 12% while the best 3 performers averaged a gain of just over 7%. Unfortunately, It was a reporting day to forget for MM with 3 of our positions in the Flagship Growth Portfolio finding themselves in the proverbial naughty corner. The trend of the last 12-18 months is being magnified to almost extreme levels with plenty of stocks making fresh multi-year lows while a number of winners are nudging all-time highs. We are considering carefully a couple of our standout underperformers as we contemplate whether we should be adding or cutting i.e. will the weak simply keep getting weaker?
At MM we are not always contrarian investors but when we see Fund Managers have become the most bullish in 18 months just as stocks start to wobble in August our initial thought is should we start to skew portfolios more defensively? Funds managers are becoming increasingly optimistic around the US avoiding a recession with 31% of managers polled in the August survey now expecting no recession in 2024, up from 19% in July and 14% in June.
The ASX200 edged higher on Tuesday as reporting season dominated local stocks although attention is slowly moving towards Jackson Hole where we hope to get a read into the current mindset of central bankers. While we don’t expect any forward guidance from Powell and Lagarde, they won’t be telling us when/what the next move will be for interest rates, there are likely to be clues as to their current feelings, a common occurrence during their closely followed speeches.
The ASX Telco index is dominated by Telstra (TLS) but through 2023 its been a very mixed bag for the four main stocks with TPG Telecom (TPG) +9.8% best on ground while Spark NZ (SPK) -7.6% has carried the wooden spoon, TLS is down just -0.6% underperforming the ASX200 which is up over +1% year-to-date.
The ASX200 ended last week down another -2.6% taking August’s pullback to -3.5% with nine trading days remaining. Risk sentiment has been significantly dampened by an ever-hawkish Fed and a Chinese economy that is struggling to regain its “mojo” post the country's severe zero-COVID policy – strict lockdowns have exacerbated issues in the likes of property that were already surfacing in China. Last week we saw the PBOC cut rates for the second time since June.
The gold price has struggled since its May high with the a recovery by the $US and firm bond yields weighing on precious metals i.e. when you can get 5% on deposit in the bank, gold and its respective stocks need to advance 5% just to match this risk-free rate of return - a far different story to when rates are at zero! At MM we continue to believe that bond yields are at/close to a pivot high that should deliver an improving tailwind to the Gold Sector over the coming quarters.
The US FAANG+ Index has now corrected over -10% from its July high, nothing too sinister in our opinion considering its still up over +65% year to date. The overnight weakness is being attributed to the hawkish Fed minutes but we believe it’s more a case of negative sentiment from China combining with a market that’s rallied very strongly over the last 9 months i.e. its simply being in need of a rest.
The initial reaction to the stimulatory move by the PBOC was positive with resource stocks in particular reversing early losses e.g. BHP Group (BHP) rallied +50c from its lows but by the close it had surrendered half of the move to end down -0.3%. The move by the PBOC came in as China suspended reporting youth unemployment rates from August, that’s one way to hide souring numbers. In our opinion, the Politburo, China's prime decision-making body, will need to pull more levels to turn around their juggernaut economy and consumer sentiment.
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