The ASX 200 erased some of its late-morning losses on Monday to finish the session down just 0.3%, not a great performance after US indices powered higher on Friday night, with the banks again the local bourse's Achilles' heel. Such was the influence of the banking sector that even though over 55% of the main board closed higher, the index still fell by more than 30 points as a strong resources sector couldn’t offset steep losses by Westpac (WBC) and others.
The US labour market appears to have “rolled over”, with July non-farm payrolls unexpectedly falling by 23,000 and the previous two months revised down by a combined 103,000 jobs. Wage growth also eased to 3.15%, its slowest pace in almost three years, reinforcing the view that inflationary pressures are gradually subsiding. Credit markets responded by scaling back expectations for a September Fed rate hike, with this week's US CPI report now looming as the next key event required to reinforce the less hawkish outlook.
The ASX 200 surged another +0.9% on Wednesday, taking the index well above 9200 for the first time; so much for Liberation Day tariffs, sticky inflation, falling house prices, and the US-Iran War. Gains were broad-based, with more than 75% of the main board advancing as the local market finally punched to new highs; it's only taken 110 trading sessions! A rampant resources market offset weakness in the banks, with BHP on its own contributing 40% of the day's 82-point advance. We don’t want to jinx the local index, but after advancing +5.6% from its intra-day low 9-trading days ago, as we said at the end of July: “We wouldn’t be short for quids.”
The ASX 200 delivered a stellar albeit surprising performance for the second consecutive Tuesday; this time it was an exceptional triple-digit gain that took the index to a fresh 5-month high, and within 1% of a new record. Interestingly, the SPI futures volume was average, implying gains were driven more by a lack of selling to meet the increased risk appetite than aggressive buying. The bears should be getting uncomfortable on several fronts, and we thought it worth highlighting the pertinent comment we made in yesterday afternoon. “The Match Out Report”:
The ASX 200 erased early losses on Monday to start August on the front foot, closing up +0.5%, back above the psychological 9000 level. Gains were broad-based, with fewer than 30% of ASX stocks closing lower. Just as importantly, selling pressure was limited; the day's worst performer, Fortescue (FMG), fell only 3.8%, while six stocks rallied more than 5%, highlighting the market's underlying strength.
Despite a volatile month, the ASX 200 ended July up +2.3%, delivering almost exactly its average return over the past 20 years as the market heads into August. As we all know, there are “lies, damned lies, and statistics”, but keeping it simple, as the chart below illustrates, July is usually a very strong month for the local index:
The Dow recovered over half of Thursdays decline overnight as Microsoft surged +15.5% after strong Azure cloud growth reinforced confidence that AI infrastructure spending is yielding results, sparking a broad rebound across semiconductor stocks. The iShares Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) climbed more than +8%, with Micron Technology jumping +18% and AMD rising more than +13%, while South Korean memory giant SK Hynix rallied over +17%. The move reignited the momentum trade, with the iShares MSCI USA Momentum Factor ETF (MTUM) gaining more than +5% as investors rotated back into AI-linked names.
In contrast, Meta Platforms fell 8% after issuing softer revenue guidance and reporting a 91% decline in second-quarter free cash flow. Volatility may be high at the stock level, but this earnings season continues to support US indices, with ~68% of stocks beating EPS and ~79% on the revenue line - the balance of the S&P 500 stocks are due to report in the coming fortnight, with the local names also getting ready to face the music in August.
The ASX 200 surged through 9000 yesterday, closing up +1% at a fresh 4-month high, supported by a soft inflation read (CPI). Gains were fairly broad-based for a triple-digit day with ~70% of the main board advancing, led by the rate-sensitive stocks. As we’ve alluded to in the last few morning reports, the ASX has been getting its mojo back of late, and the soft CPI hasn’t hurt the backdrop for local stocks. Even the Australian Financial Review quoted our comments along these lines overnight:
The ASX 200 delivered a stellar albeit surprising performance on Tuesday, reversing early losses to close up +0.6%, posting a 6-week high in the process. The buying gathered momentum after lunch ahead of todays pivotal CPI inflation read, with bonds also strong; it felt like some hawks were squaring their positions in case the CPI comes in softer than expected. However, what was most impressive about the performance was the manner in which the local market shrugged off weakness across the region, where the KOSPI (-11%) and Japanese Nikkei (-4%) combined with weak US futures to paint a clouded picture for risk assets.
The US labour market appears to have “rolled over”, with July non-farm payrolls unexpectedly falling by 23,000 and the previous two months revised down by a combined 103,000 jobs. Wage growth also eased to 3.15%, its slowest pace in almost three years, reinforcing the view that inflationary pressures are gradually subsiding. Credit markets responded by scaling back expectations for a September Fed rate hike, with this week's US CPI report now looming as the next key event required to reinforce the less hawkish outlook.
The ASX 200 surged another +0.9% on Wednesday, taking the index well above 9200 for the first time; so much for Liberation Day tariffs, sticky inflation, falling house prices, and the US-Iran War. Gains were broad-based, with more than 75% of the main board advancing as the local market finally punched to new highs; it's only taken 110 trading sessions! A rampant resources market offset weakness in the banks, with BHP on its own contributing 40% of the day's 82-point advance. We don’t want to jinx the local index, but after advancing +5.6% from its intra-day low 9-trading days ago, as we said at the end of July: “We wouldn’t be short for quids.”
The ASX 200 delivered a stellar albeit surprising performance for the second consecutive Tuesday; this time it was an exceptional triple-digit gain that took the index to a fresh 5-month high, and within 1% of a new record. Interestingly, the SPI futures volume was average, implying gains were driven more by a lack of selling to meet the increased risk appetite than aggressive buying. The bears should be getting uncomfortable on several fronts, and we thought it worth highlighting the pertinent comment we made in yesterday afternoon. “The Match Out Report”:
The ASX 200 erased early losses on Monday to start August on the front foot, closing up +0.5%, back above the psychological 9000 level. Gains were broad-based, with fewer than 30% of ASX stocks closing lower. Just as importantly, selling pressure was limited; the day's worst performer, Fortescue (FMG), fell only 3.8%, while six stocks rallied more than 5%, highlighting the market's underlying strength.
Despite a volatile month, the ASX 200 ended July up +2.3%, delivering almost exactly its average return over the past 20 years as the market heads into August. As we all know, there are “lies, damned lies, and statistics”, but keeping it simple, as the chart below illustrates, July is usually a very strong month for the local index:
The Dow recovered over half of Thursdays decline overnight as Microsoft surged +15.5% after strong Azure cloud growth reinforced confidence that AI infrastructure spending is yielding results, sparking a broad rebound across semiconductor stocks. The iShares Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) climbed more than +8%, with Micron Technology jumping +18% and AMD rising more than +13%, while South Korean memory giant SK Hynix rallied over +17%. The move reignited the momentum trade, with the iShares MSCI USA Momentum Factor ETF (MTUM) gaining more than +5% as investors rotated back into AI-linked names.
In contrast, Meta Platforms fell 8% after issuing softer revenue guidance and reporting a 91% decline in second-quarter free cash flow. Volatility may be high at the stock level, but this earnings season continues to support US indices, with ~68% of stocks beating EPS and ~79% on the revenue line - the balance of the S&P 500 stocks are due to report in the coming fortnight, with the local names also getting ready to face the music in August.
The ASX 200 surged through 9000 yesterday, closing up +1% at a fresh 4-month high, supported by a soft inflation read (CPI). Gains were fairly broad-based for a triple-digit day with ~70% of the main board advancing, led by the rate-sensitive stocks. As we’ve alluded to in the last few morning reports, the ASX has been getting its mojo back of late, and the soft CPI hasn’t hurt the backdrop for local stocks. Even the Australian Financial Review quoted our comments along these lines overnight:
The ASX 200 delivered a stellar albeit surprising performance on Tuesday, reversing early losses to close up +0.6%, posting a 6-week high in the process. The buying gathered momentum after lunch ahead of todays pivotal CPI inflation read, with bonds also strong; it felt like some hawks were squaring their positions in case the CPI comes in softer than expected. However, what was most impressive about the performance was the manner in which the local market shrugged off weakness across the region, where the KOSPI (-11%) and Japanese Nikkei (-4%) combined with weak US futures to paint a clouded picture for risk assets.
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