06/09/2024 09:15

QBE Insurance Group Ltd (QBE) $16.05

QBE has already corrected ~14% from its July high as it retreats in anticipation of lower US interest rates. QBE earns income from its premiums in US bonds ahead of payouts on the claims. Last month's trading update came in largely as expected, and the stock has not moved since early August. QBE’s 1H24 result was broadly in line with expectations. The key to us is that the insurer is too cheap due to its messy history, trading ~10x FY24F PE, well below its global peers.

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08/08/2024 09:39

QBE Insurance Group Ltd (QBE) $16.37

QBE provided a trading update for the five months to May 24, which identified some of the noisier items; however, the important underlying profitability was not mentioned. QBE is historically very volatile on reporting day, which happens to be tomorrow, with an average earnings surprise of 10%, leading to an average 4.2% move in share price on the day of reporting i.e. not the faint hearted. Margins will be a focus tomorrow and we believe repricing continues to track in excess of loss trends, which drives margin expansion.

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20/06/2024 09:48

QBE Insurance Group Ltd (QBE) $17.59

QBE fell -4.25% on Wednesday after announcing plans to close part of their North American ‘mid-market’ business after failing to sell it. It’s another step in the simplification process for QBE which has been ongoing for several years, essentially unwinding the complexity that built up over decades. QBE has had a stellar run over the last two years as their more targeted strategy and favourable macro conditions supported earnings.

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04/06/2024 09:07

QBE Insurance Group Ltd (QBE) $18.26

QBE rallied +2.6% on Monday, its largest gain in 15 weeks, aided by S&P reaffirming its Long-term credit rating at A-. QBE remains our preferred local insurance play after its excellent March full-year result, but the stock has experienced a decent retracement each year since COVID, apart from 2024, yet that is! The risk/return isn’t exciting just yet, but we do like the insurer into a pullback.

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11/04/2024 09:26

QBE Insurance Group (QBE) $17.55

QBE remains our preferred local insurance play after its March full year result showcased an improved return on equity of over 20% in the second half. Importantly, the stock remains cheap, trading on an estimated PE of 9.8x compared to its global peer average of around 12x plus. We like the direction of the business over recent times, although much of this has clearly been reflected in the share price, with the stock up over 18% year-to-date.

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07/03/2024 09:12

QBE Insurance Group Ltd (QBE) $15.19

In February, Sydney-based insurer QBE's FY23 result demonstrated an improved return on equity (ROE) of over 20% in the second half, leaving the business well-positioned for a solid earnings position over the years ahead. Importantly, in the current environment, their conservative guidance leaves them with the potential to “under promise and over deliver.”

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20/02/2024 09:32

QBE Insurance Group Ltd (QBE) $16.71

QBE is the turnaround story we should have bought instead of LLC; they both have a complicated business, although the insurer is delivering -  hindsight is the ultimate investor! From a risk/reward perspective, we have no interest in QBE at current levels, but in a similar manner to most of the market, there are no sell signals, either fundamental or technical.

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16/02/2024 16:53

QBE Insurance (QBE) $16.11

QBE -1.71%: full-year numbers for the insurer were released today, a slight miss despite being supported by better-than-expected catastrophe claims.

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19/01/2024 09:04

QBE Insurance Group (QBE) $15.23

We continue to like the recovery profile of QBE, and although it's faced with the headwind of declining bond yields over recent months, the recent readjustment by money markets looks capable of taking the insurer back above $16.

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15/12/2023 09:33

QBE Insurance (QBE) $14.07

QBE fell -2.6% yesterday; when we wrote about the stock last month, we said, “We can see QBE testing below $14 over the coming months, which is a more optimum entry level for MM.” This was a bearish call at the time, but after the stock's 15% decline in a rising market, today's a logical time to reassess the insurer.

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