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Undervalued
Morningstar Quantitative Rating as of 30 OCT 2026.
Quantitative Equity Rating Methodology – view here
Five-star price 0.62 Fair value 0.78 One-star price 0.99
Morningstar Quantitative Rating as of 30 OCT 2026.
Morningstar Quantitative Rating as of 30 OCT 2026. The slider runs from the five-star price (0.62) to the one-star price (0.99).
| Ratios |
|---|
| Currency (Price/reporting): AUD/AUD |
| Exchange Rate: 1.0000 |
| Price - closing or last bid | 0.62 |
| Price - 12 month high | 2.65 |
| Price - 12 month low | 0.62 |
| Pricing date | 29 OCT 2026 |
| Volume - avg. trading volume for the last ten days | 38.93 |
| Market capitalization | 1,979.03 |
| 12 Month High price date | 13 MAY 2026 |
| 12 Month Low price date | 30 OCT 2026 |
| Volume - avg. trading volume for the last 3 months | 44.23 |
| Price - 1 Day % Change | -7.46% |
| Price - 13 week price percent change | -43.89% |
| Price - 26 week price percent change | -74.49% |
| Price - 5 Day % Change | -10.14% |
| Price - 52 week price percent change | -41.23% |
| Price - YTD price percent change | -60.63% |
| Price % Change Month To Date | -34.74% |
| EPS excluding extraordinary items - most recent fiscal year | 0.031 |
| EPS excluding extraordinary items - trailing 12 month | 0.031 |
| EPS Normalized - most recent fiscal year | 0.032 |
| Revenue/share - most recent fiscal year | 0.216 |
| Revenue/share - trailing 12 month | 0.216 |
| Book value per share - most recent fiscal year | 0.463 |
| Book value per share - most recent half-year | 0.463 |
| Book value (tangible) per share - most recent fiscal year | 0.463 |
| Book value (tangible) per share - most recent half-year | 0.463 |
| Cash per share - most recent fiscal year | 0.176 |
| Cash per share - most recent half-year | 0.176 |
| Cash Flow per share - most recent fiscal year | 0.057 |
| Cash Flow per share - trailing 12 month | 0.057 |
| Dividend per share - most recent fiscal year | — |
| Dividends per share - trailing 12 month | 0.000 |
| EBITD per share - trailing 12 month | 0.049 |
| EPS Basic excluding extraordinary items - most recent fiscal year | 0.031 |
| EPS Basic excluding extraordinary items - trailing 12 month | 0.031 |
| EPS including extraordinary items - most recent fiscal year | 0.031 |
| EPS including extraordinary items - trailing 12 month | 0.031 |
| Free Cash Flow per share - trailing 12 month | 0.012 |
| P/E excluding extraordinary items, most recent fiscal year | 20.00 |
| P/E Normalized, most recent fiscal year | 19.24 |
| Price to sales - most recent fiscal year | 2.87 |
| Price to Tangible Book - most fiscal year | 1.34 |
| Price to Free Cash Flow per Share - most recent fiscal year | 50.70 |
| Price to Cash Flow per share - trailing 12 month | 10.79 |
| Price to Book - most recent fiscal year | 1.34 |
| P/E excluding extraordinary items high, trailing 12 months | 42.10 |
| P/E excluding extraordinary items low, trailing 12 months | 20.00 |
| Net Debt, LFI | 428.77 |
| Net Debt, LFY | -57.12 |
| Dividend Yield - 5 Year Average | — |
| Dividend Yield - indicated annual dividend divided by closing price | — |
| Current Dividend Yield - Common Stock Primary Issue, LTM | 0.00% |
| Free Cash Flow - most recent fiscal year | 36.24 |
| LT debt/equity - most recent fiscal year | 30.14% |
| Payout ratio - most recent fiscal year | — |
| Total debt/total equity - most recent fiscal year | 34.32% |
| LT debt/equity - most recent half-year | 60.70% |
| Total debt/total equity - most recent half-year | 110.14% |
| Free Cash Flow - trailing 12 month | 281.55 |
| Payout ratio - trailing 12 month | — |
| Revenue - most recent fiscal year | 639.14 |
| Revenue - trailing 12 month | 639.14 |
| EBITD - most recent fiscal year | 145.24 |
| EBITD - trailing 12 month | — |
| Earnings before taxes - most recent fiscal year | -15.90 |
| Earnings before taxes - trailing 12 month | -15.90 |
| Net Income available to common - most recent fiscal year | 92.55 |
| Net Income available to common - trailing 12 months | 92.55 |
| Earnings before taxes Normalized - most recent fiscal year | -10.70 |
| Net Income Available to Common, Normalized - most recent fiscal year | — |
| Earnings per Share, Normalized, Excluding Extraordinary Items, Avg. Diluted Shares Outstanding, TTM | 0.03 |
| Net Profit Margin % - 1st historical fiscal year | 14.48% |
| Net Profit Margin % - trailing 12 month | — |
| Operating margin - 1st historical fiscal year | 7.81% |
| Operating margin - trailing 12 month | — |
| Pretax margin - trailing 12 month | — |
| Pretax margin - 1st historical fiscal year | -2.49% |
| Operating Margin - 5 year average | — |
| Pretax Margin - 5 year average | — |
| Free Operating Cash Flow/Revenue, 5 Year Average | — |
| Free Operating Cash Flow/Revenue, TTM | — |
| Net Profit Margin - 5 year average | — |
| Return on average assets - most recent fiscal year | 5.00% |
| Return on average assets - trailing 12 month | — |
| Return on average equity - most recent fiscal year | 9.86% |
| Return on average equity - trailing 12 month | — |
| Return on average assets - 5 year average | — |
| Return on average equity - 5 year average | — |
| Net Income/employee - most recent fiscal year | — |
| Revenue/employee - most recent fiscal year | — |
| Revenue growth rate, 5 year | — |
| EPS growth rate, 5 year | — |
| Growth rate% - dividend, 3 year | — |
| Revenue/share (5 yr growth) | — |
| Growth rate% - Revenue, 3 year | — |
| Growth rate% - EPS, 3 year | — |
| Book value per share growth rate, 5 year | 128.59% |
| Capital Spending growth rate, 5 year | 328.28% |
| Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation & Amortization, 5 Year CAGR | — |
Financial forecast (AUD, millions except per share)
| Actuals | Estimates | |||||||
| 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | |||||
| Estimate breakdown | ||||||||
Financials (AUD, millions)
| Period end: | JUN 22 | JUN 23 | JUN 24 | JUN 25 | JUN 26 |
| Fiscal year: | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
| Period length: | 12 months | 12 months | 12 months | 12 months | 12 months |
Announcements
| DATE | TIME | HEADING | PAGES |
| Price sensitive |
LTR –4.96%: Maintained FY27 guidance as it continues to ramp up Kathleen Valley, with the approved expansion set to materially increase longer-term production capacity. However, shares weakened alongside broader lithium sentiment, with uncertainty around Chinese demand and battery capacity continuing to weigh on the sector.
LTR has looked after our Emerging Companies Portfolio over the last year, but our August purchase at $1.19 is looking concerning after initially rallying more than 12%. Similar to our holding in PLS, we are now questioning if we still want to own LTR as the news flow goes from bad to worse.
LTR +2.51%: The lithium junior posted FY26 production that was better than the headline revenue number suggests. Sales more than doubled as Kathleen Valley ramped up, and while revenue came in slightly below expectations, earnings were more than 20% ahead of consensus and the company swung comfortably back into profit.
We are making a change to the Emerging Companies Portfolio today.
Liontown Resources has come back onto our radar after a sharp pullback, although the recent weakness has not been without cause. The stock was hit hard following a disappointing 4Q update and softer FY27 guidance, which forced meaningful downgrades to earnings, costs and valuation assumptions across the market.
We exited our LTR position in our Emerging Companies Portfolio in January; now, 40% lower, it's back on our radar as a clearly leveraged play on the lithium price. Operationally, LTR is on track to meet FY26 guidance despite 3Q Spodumene production falling 8.5% quarter-on-quarter. With a significantly higher cost of production, this is a more leveraged stock to the underlying Li price - AISC guidance for FY26 was reaffirmed at A$1,060–A$1,295/t, with Q3 FY26 AISC rising to A$1,251/t due to higher royalties and softer production.
Liontown has rapidly evolved from a transition story into one of the market’s purest lithium recovery plays. Investor focus has shifted from whether Kathleen Valley can successfully ramp up, to how quickly management can improve recoveries, lower costs and unlock the next phase of production growth. With the underground transition tracking ahead of schedule, lithium prices recovering and the balance sheet materially strengthened following the LG Energy Solution conversion, the outlook is significantly stronger than it was a year ago.
We are reducing exposure in the Emerging Companies Portfolio
LTR was the top performing stock on the ASX200 on Monday, surging +12.8% as the lithium names surged higher. LTR raised $266mn at 73c in August, giving the company around 18-months of breathing space for lithium to average ~$US1,100 in 2026, and $US1,000 in 2027, where it will achieve free cash flow (FCF) breakeven - not far now!
MM remains neutral toward LTR
MM is selling LTR in the Emerging Companies Portfolio, taking a loss around $1.02
MM is neutral towards LTR around $1.00
MM remains long and bullish LTR
MM is buying LTR in the Emerging Companies Portfolio, allocating 3% around $1.15
MM views LTR as an accumulate around $1.20
MM is cautiously bullish towards LTR around $1.25
MM is neutral towards LTR around $1.90
MM is selling LTR in the Emerging Companies Portfolio, taking profit around $2.09
MM is long and bullish towards LTR
Liontown Ltd is a battery minerals provider focused on supplying minerals used in energy and industrial applications. It holds two lithium deposits in Western Australia and seeks to expand its portfolio through exploration, partnerships, and acquisitions. The company also considers participating in downstream activities where having control of mineral deposits may offer operational advantages. The company has one reportable operating segment which is exploration, developmentand mining of minerals in Western Australia.
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