30/11/2023 09:12

Global Markets

US stocks ended mixed overnight after struggling for much of the session following a strong GDP print-reduced slightly optimism for rate cuts through 2024. However, yields still ended the session lower – the US economy grew at a 5.2% seasonally adjusted annual rate in the third quarter, above estimations of 5%.

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27/11/2023 08:54

Interest Rates / Bond Yields

The Australian three-year bond yield recovered some of its recent early losses last week. It remains a big ask for them to push much below 4% without clear signs that inflation is under control and the RBA has donned a dovish hat into 2024 – this week’s Retail Sales and CPI (inflation) data will influence how Australian bonds and interest rate hopes travel into 2024.

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20/11/2023 09:03

Interest Rates / Bond Yields

The Australian three-year bond yield retreated last week following the market-friendly US CPI inflation print, as signs emerge that the macro factor, which has sent interest rates soaring over recent years, is finally under control. The local 3s have gone from testing 4.5% to almost 4% in 3-weeks, fuelling the recent strong rally by equities.

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13/11/2023 08:55

Interest Rates / Bond Yields

The Australian three-year bond yield chopped around last week in a fairly volatile manner following some conflicting messaging from various US Fed members; the end result was the short-dated local bond closed unchanged, still trading below the 4.35% cash rate.

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06/11/2023 08:59

Interest Rates / Bond Yields

The Australian three-year bond yield closed unchanged last week after an early foray up towards 4.5%; with the RBA decision looming tomorrow afternoon and bets increasing that Michele Bullock & Co. will hike, it's likely to be quiet in local bonds until 2.30 pm tomorrow, just 30-minutes before the start of the Melbourne Cup.

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03/11/2023 09:17

Global Markets

US stocks surged higher overnight, with the S&P500 enjoying its best day since April, fuelled by oversold conditions and bearish fund manager positioning, which MM discussed earlier in the week. The S&P500 added +1.9%, sending the VIX (Fear Gauge) below technical support, i.e. an encouraging sign for the bulls. Tesla (TSLA US) jumped over +6% while Apple Inc (AAPL US) rose over +2% before it reported after market.

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23/10/2023 08:45

Interest Rates / Bond Yields

The Australian three-year bond yield rallied back above 4% last week after the RBA and Fed made it clear further rate hikes are not out of the question. At this stage, we need to see them back below 3.75% before becoming confident that our forecasted decline is underway.

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09/10/2023 09:02

Interest Rates / Bond Yields

The Australian three-year bond yield edged back below 4% last week and we’re set to open unchanged this morning, but events unfolding around Israel could see them marked lower this morning as the appetite for the relative safety of bonds increases, i.e. higher bond prices mean lower yields.

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03/10/2023 09:15

Interest Rates / Bond Yields

The Australian three-year bond yields jumped back above 4% last week and are set to test their 2023 high this week following last night's hawkish comments from the Fed. Australian markets are continuing to take their lead from the US, which is weighing on bond prices and pushing yields higher, the trend is strong and backed by an inflationary macroeconomic backdrop.

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23/08/2023 09:17

Global Markets

US indices struggled overnight under the weight of uncertainty from both the looming NVIDIA (NVDA US) result and Jackson Hole i.e. has the surge by tech and AI stocks been justified and are the major central banks going to remain hawkish through the 2H.

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