The financial press keeps telling us that stocks are expensive and a correction is inevitable, yet US markets remain within 1% of new all-time highs. The chart below tells an interesting story about the two factors pulling the S&P 500 in opposite directions through 2026. Blended forward EPS estimates have surged 35% since year-end, reflecting strong corporate earnings, particularly across AI-related companies, yet the index itself is up only +11.8%.
The ASX 200 finished a volatile week up +0.2%, almost as if Thursdays ~2% plunge to fresh four month lows didn’t exist. The weekly change masked significant volatility as investors digested the RBA’s fourth rate hike of 2026 alongside softer-than-expected inflation data. Technology was the standout sector, surging 7.3%, while the dominant theme remained interest rates, with the cash rate reaching a 15-year high of 4.6%, although softer CPI and Governor Bullock’s subsequent comments tempered expectations for further tightening.
The ASX bounced today following yesterday’s broad-based sell-off with the rebound driven by a recovery in Technology, while nine of the 11 sectors finished higher. The move leaves the index up +0.2% for the week after a volatile few sessions, with the market still looking for confirmation that the recent surge in bond yields and oil prices has potentially peaked.
The ASX 200 was walloped ~2% on the first day of October, registering its biggest daily fall in over six months on broad based selling which saw over 90% of the main board close lower. The selling was compounded by the index breaking to fresh 4-month lows, triggering momentum and trend following systems sell to more, erasing close to $60bn from the index in the process. We believe the aggressive nature of yesterday’s decline came down to three reasons.
Today's move was effectively the mirror image of yesterday with the ASX back to its lowest level since June. The market rallied almost 1% yesterday on softer CPI and hopes that the RBA may be close to the end of its tightening cycle, but bond yields reversed higher overnight and quickly put that trade under pressure.
September finished with a much-needed relief rally as softer inflation data this morning and RBA Governor Michele Bullock’s less than hawkish commentary yesterday afternoon triggered a sharp rebound in beaten-up Real Estate, Discretionary and other rate-sensitive stocks.
The ASX 200 rebounded 0.3% following yesterday’s 0.25% RBA rate hike, helped by Governor Michele Bullock’s comments proving less hawkish than many had feared. The cash rate is now at a 15-year high of 4.60%, but we found the market's reaction encouraging: the A$ fell to a two-month low and credit markets pared back expectations for further tightening, with only around a 60% chance of one more hike before Christmas now priced in.
The ASX ended up notching a decent gain today after a choppy session leading up to the 2:30pm RBA decision. At the sector level, a strong rebound in Technology and Materials helped offset weakness across Energy, Real Estate and Financials ahead of the decision.
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