06/03/2024 09:13

Gold $A3,278

We’ve touched on gold in its traditional $US quotation earlier in today’s report, discussing how it's now less than 1% away from its all-time high posted in December. However, in $A terms, it continued to push to fresh all-time highs almost on a monthly basis, which benefits the Australian gold socks, although they have taken some convincing over the last year.

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18/01/2024 09:27

Gold Producers cannot take a trick

The issues with some of the heavyweight gold stocks have been painfully reflected by their share prices; even as gold tests its all-time high, both GOLD & EVN have more than halved from their post-COVID high – good job, gold hasn’t fallen! MM has been overweight gold through 2023, which has delivered a reasonable return but nothing like our positioning in uranium stocks, illustrating that picking the macro picture is just one part of the puzzle.

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15/01/2024 08:38

Commodities

Crude oil has bounced over recent weeks as tensions escalated in the Middle East, but it's been a disappointing reaction, in our opinion. We are in no hurry to buy oil stocks, with another 10-15% downside looking likely for the commodity.

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11/12/2023 09:08

Commodities

Gold spiked to new all-time highs last week before reversing lower as US bond yields recovered some recent losses, especially on Friday following the robust employment data. We are looking for bond yields to decline through 2024. Still, it won't be a straight-line move as central bankers will remain cautious around inflation, raising its head into any overly accommodative policy.

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04/12/2023 09:03

Commodities

Gold took an enormous leap towards all-time highs last week, surging over $US70, or 3.5%, riding the weak $US and falling bond yield wave to its fullest. As we’ve said previously, we believe it’s a matter of when, not if, gold breaks above US$ 2,100, and after the latest advance, that will likely be in the coming weeks.

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28/11/2023 09:10

Global Markets

Overnight saw US stocks experience a choppy session, although it was encouraging to see them close well off their lows, the session felt like traders took a breather after the market's stellar 4-week advance. Wall Street has enjoyed four straight weekly gains as 10-year Treasury yields retreated from the 5% area.

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27/11/2023 08:55

Commodities

Gold has largely lost its uncertainty bid around the Middle East. Still, a drifting $US remains supportive towards precious metals, i.e. the Greenback has slipped ~3.5% over recent weeks, not a conclusive move but enough to create a tailwind. Our initial target is an advance to a fresh all-time high of around $US2,100, or ~5% above Friday's close.

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22/11/2023 09:26

Global Markets

US indices drifted lower overnight following the release of Fed minutes, which showed officials will take a cautious approach to raising interest rates moving forward – we believe they are done. Overall no great surprises here, although markets would always like further clarification from Jerome Powell et al. After the closing bell this morning, we had NVIDIA’s (NVDA US) important 3Q result, which looks a beat at the revenue line with the AI goliath producing $18.12bn in the quarter, up from $5.93bn this time last year.

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10/10/2023 09:22

Do we prefer Oil or Gold in the current environment?

Gold and crude oil have risen due to the conflict between Israel and Palestine and likely prolonged Middle East tensions. Overnight, both saw strong moves on the upside, with gold advancing +1.7% and crude oil +4.1%. We can argue that both commodities look bullish into Christmas, although we feel they are at different stages of their post-COVID advance.

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29/09/2023 08:44

Is it a problem for stocks when Chinese Gold falls the most since 2020?

Gold in China fell the most in 3 years on Thursday, almost closing the gap with international prices that’s persisted for weeks. The precious metal tumbled -3.8% on the Shanghai Gold Exchange, with losses accelerating into the close, creating the impression that investors/traders were caught long. The pullback followed a major rally in local prices that had lasted for months, creating a record premium to that outside of the country until the elastic band inevitably snapped back.

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