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Overvalued
Morningstar Quantitative Rating as of 4 NOV 2026.
Quantitative Equity Rating Methodology – view here
Five-star price 11.18 Fair value 15.66 One-star price 21.93
Morningstar Quantitative Rating as of 4 NOV 2026.
Morningstar Quantitative Rating as of 4 NOV 2026. The slider runs from the five-star price (11.18) to the one-star price (21.93).
| Ratios |
|---|
| Currency (Price/reporting): AUD/USD |
| Exchange Rate: 1.4554 |
| Price - closing or last bid | 20.29 |
| Price - 12 month high | 25.00 |
| Price - 12 month low | 14.41 |
| Pricing date | 4 NOV 2026 |
| Volume - avg. trading volume for the last ten days | 2.66 |
| Market capitalization | 9,494.80 |
| 12 Month High price date | 26 AUG 2026 |
| 12 Month Low price date | 23 MAR 2026 |
| Volume - avg. trading volume for the last 3 months | 2.03 |
| Price - 1 Day % Change | 6.85% |
| Price - 13 week price percent change | 1.96% |
| Price - 26 week price percent change | 21.13% |
| Price - 5 Day % Change | -1.36% |
| Price - 52 week price percent change | 29.15% |
| Price - YTD price percent change | 13.23% |
| Price % Change Month To Date | -7.69% |
| EPS excluding extraordinary items - most recent fiscal year | 0.764 |
| EPS excluding extraordinary items - trailing 12 month | 0.764 |
| EPS Normalized - most recent fiscal year | 0.509 |
| Revenue/share - most recent fiscal year | 3.532 |
| Revenue/share - trailing 12 month | 3.532 |
| Book value per share - most recent fiscal year | 4.752 |
| Book value per share - most recent half-year | 4.752 |
| Book value (tangible) per share - most recent fiscal year | 4.737 |
| Book value (tangible) per share - most recent half-year | 4.737 |
| Cash per share - most recent fiscal year | 0.755 |
| Cash per share - most recent half-year | 0.755 |
| Cash Flow per share - most recent fiscal year | 1.569 |
| Cash Flow per share - trailing 12 month | 1.569 |
| Dividend per share - most recent fiscal year | — |
| Dividends per share - trailing 12 month | 0.350 |
| EBITD per share - trailing 12 month | 1.859 |
| EPS Basic excluding extraordinary items - most recent fiscal year | 0.769 |
| EPS Basic excluding extraordinary items - trailing 12 month | 0.769 |
| EPS including extraordinary items - most recent fiscal year | 0.769 |
| EPS including extraordinary items - trailing 12 month | 0.769 |
| Free Cash Flow per share - trailing 12 month | 1.054 |
| P/E excluding extraordinary items, most recent fiscal year | 17.99 |
| P/E Normalized, most recent fiscal year | 27.00 |
| Price to sales - most recent fiscal year | 3.89 |
| Price to Tangible Book - most fiscal year | 2.94 |
| Price to Free Cash Flow per Share - most recent fiscal year | 13.04 |
| Price to Cash Flow per share - trailing 12 month | 8.76 |
| Price to Book - most recent fiscal year | 2.94 |
| P/E excluding extraordinary items high, trailing 12 months | 68.60 |
| P/E excluding extraordinary items low, trailing 12 months | 16.36 |
| Net Debt, LFI | 6.42 |
| Net Debt, LFY | -316.20 |
| Dividend Yield - 5 Year Average | — |
| Dividend Yield - indicated annual dividend divided by closing price | 1.80% |
| Current Dividend Yield - Common Stock Primary Issue, LTM | 1.73% |
| Free Cash Flow - most recent fiscal year | 490.76 |
| LT debt/equity - most recent fiscal year | 0.59% |
| Payout ratio - most recent fiscal year | — |
| Total debt/total equity - most recent fiscal year | 1.65% |
| LT debt/equity - most recent half-year | 6.80% |
| Total debt/total equity - most recent half-year | 7.59% |
| Free Cash Flow - trailing 12 month | 490.76 |
| Payout ratio - trailing 12 month | — |
| Revenue - most recent fiscal year | 1,645.11 |
| Revenue - trailing 12 month | 1,645.11 |
| EBITD - most recent fiscal year | 865.63 |
| EBITD - trailing 12 month | 865.63 |
| Earnings before taxes - most recent fiscal year | 529.10 |
| Earnings before taxes - trailing 12 month | 529.10 |
| Net Income available to common - most recent fiscal year | 355.81 |
| Net Income available to common - trailing 12 months | 355.81 |
| Earnings before taxes Normalized - most recent fiscal year | 485.06 |
| Net Income Available to Common, Normalized - most recent fiscal year | 237.12 |
| Earnings per Share, Normalized, Excluding Extraordinary Items, Avg. Diluted Shares Outstanding, TTM | 0.51 |
| Net Profit Margin % - 1st historical fiscal year | 21.53% |
| Net Profit Margin % - trailing 12 month | 21.53% |
| Operating margin - 1st historical fiscal year | 32.53% |
| Operating margin - trailing 12 month | 32.53% |
| Pretax margin - trailing 12 month | 32.16% |
| Pretax margin - 1st historical fiscal year | 32.16% |
| Operating Margin - 5 year average | 15.97% |
| Pretax Margin - 5 year average | 11.23% |
| Free Operating Cash Flow/Revenue, 5 Year Average | 11.29% |
| Free Operating Cash Flow/Revenue, TTM | 29.83% |
| Net Profit Margin - 5 year average | 6.17% |
| Return on average assets - most recent fiscal year | 11.86% |
| Return on average assets - trailing 12 month | 11.86% |
| Return on average equity - most recent fiscal year | 18.00% |
| Return on average equity - trailing 12 month | 18.00% |
| Return on average assets - 5 year average | 3.56% |
| Return on average equity - 5 year average | 5.14% |
| Net Income/employee - most recent fiscal year | — |
| Revenue/employee - most recent fiscal year | — |
| Revenue growth rate, 5 year | 23.50% |
| EPS growth rate, 5 year | 2.86% |
| Growth rate% - dividend, 3 year | — |
| Revenue/share (5 yr growth) | 3.53% |
| Growth rate% - Revenue, 3 year | 28.11% |
| Growth rate% - EPS, 3 year | — |
| Book value per share growth rate, 5 year | 6.10% |
| Capital Spending growth rate, 5 year | 21.56% |
| Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation & Amortization, 5 Year CAGR | 20.88% |
Financial forecast (AUD, millions except per share)
| Actuals | Estimates | |||||||
| 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | |||||
| Estimate breakdown | ||||||||
Financials (USD, millions)
| Period end: | JUN 22 | JUN 23 | JUN 24 | JUN 25 | JUN 26 |
| Fiscal year: | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
| Period length: | 12 months | 12 months | 12 months | 12 months | 12 months |
Announcements
| DATE | TIME | HEADING | PAGES |
| Price sensitive |
SFR has been performing well operationally, but as we’ve pointed out a few times over recent months, it likes to retreat ~30%, and now it's done it for a third time in less than 3 years. We believe SFR is now financially strong enough to fund growth, return capital and retain meaningful leverage to higher copper prices - assuming they are in the offing.
We believe there's more to Glencore’s listing on the ASX than just valuation, although that’s a bonus on a couple of fronts. We will be amazed if GLC isn’t involved in some M&A in the coming years; it's certainly got history!
SFR +6.01%: Capped off a strong FY26 with earnings more than tripling as stronger copper production, pricing and operating performance flowed through the business - the share price today helped by a strong move in Copper overnight.
SFR +3.58%: finished FY26 strongly, with a sharp lift in copper and silver production driving record quarterly financial outcomes and leaving the balance sheet in its strongest position for several years.
So far this year, copper miner SFR has consolidated its strong gains through 2025, which we regard as bullish considering the headwinds from the US-Iran war on the industrial metal. With copper again threatening to break out on the upside, we believe it’s a matter of time before SFR tests/breaks its all-time highs.
Sandfire (BHP is 2nd) has the highest correlation to Samsung, without the steroids on the upside, but its ~17% fall in the last 4 weeks has followed a very similar path to the Korean semiconductor giant. MMs portfolios are skewed towards copper and the miners; hence it's been a tough few weeks, but we remain comfortable with our underlying analysis and are more likely to add to our exposure than trim into current weakness.
Sandfire (SFR) is the largest pure copper (Cu) play on the ASX, although BHP has arguably been more correlated to the industrial metal. There are two points of note from the impressive chart below:
Sandfire has been a great illustration of the cyclical and volatile nature of commodity stocks having fallen more than 30% from its January high after getting too excited on the upside from a valuation perspective when it tested $22.
Sandfire corrected over 30% from its late January high as investors took profit before, and after the Iran war broke out. The main issue with this copper miner is its valuation, after it became the “go to” pure Cu play on the ASX after BHP bought OZ Minerals three years ago. Even in today’s environment, where virtually all analysts are positive on the industrial metal, there is mixed opinions around SFR
Reaffirmed FY26 production guidance despite a softer March-quarter operational update, with weather and maintenance disruptions weighing on output but not enough to shift the broader outlook.
MM is long and bullish on SFR
MM remains long and bullish SFR
MM remains long & bullish SFR
MM is long and bullish towards Sandfire around $19
MM is long and bullish towards Sandfire around $18
MM is bullish towards SFR around $20
MM remains long & bullish towards SFR around $18.50
MM is long and bullish SFR
MM remains long and bullish SFR
MM remains long and bullish SFR in the Active Growth Portfolio
Sandfire Resources Ltd is a copper-focused mineral exploration and development company. The company's operating segments include DeGrussa Copper operations, MATSA Copper Operations, Black Butte Copper Project, Motheo Copper Operations, andExploration and Other. It derives key revenue from the MATSA Copper Operations segment, which consists of the Minas de Aguas Tenidas (MATSA) polymetallic mining complex in Spain and exploration and evaluation activities in Spain and Portugal. The operations comprise three underground mines and a central processing facility. The mines generate revenue from the sale of copper, zinc, and lead concentrates containing a silver by-product.
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