What Matters Today: What did we learn from this week’s Sohn conference, as recession fears mount?

This week was the famous Sohn Investment Conference in the US, the original event that is now also run in Australia under the Hearts & Minds banner. At Market Matters, we do our best to consume as much information as possible, and distil it down into actionable insight for our members, applying our own lens. This week’s event had some interesting nuggets as always and we’ll touch on a few in today’s note, but here’s what we gleaned from a high level.

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Weekend report 02/08/2025 09:33

Weekend Q&A: A weak US Jobs Report weighs on stocks ahead of reporting season

The ASX200 slipped 0.1% last week after a tough Friday session, but it still ended up 2.3% for July. Earnings season is upon us, and it's already started to exert its force on the market - It's not often you see an ASX200 stock halve in the blink of an eye! We have begun the seasonally weak August-September period for the ASX, and on cue, the index has started to feel a touch soft, although 2-days doesn't make a summer.

Afternoon report 01/08/2025 17:07

The Match Out: Soft end to a choppy week for the ASX

Tariffs were back impacting the ASX today after the Whitehouse said that it will maintain a minimum global levy of 10%, while imports from countries with a trade surplus with the US will face at least 15%.

Morning report 01/08/2025 09:34

ETF Friday: ETFs to consider as the President hammers the Copper Traders

The ASX 200 ended the Thursday session down just 0.2%, recovering ~80% of its early decline, with winners and losers evenly matched. July lived up to its seasonal reputation, closing up +2.4%. If not for a -2.6% clobbering of the influential Materials Sector yesterday, we could easily have been trading at new highs.

Afternoon report 31/07/2025 17:22

The Match Out: ASX drifts lower as Materials slump on US Copper selloff

The ASX started the day on the backfoot with the materials space copping a beating after the ~20% selloff in US copper overnight as the index fell -55pts early, but the ~8700 level held well.

Morning report 31/07/2025 11:31

What Matters Today: The GLP-1 Ozempic-Esque drugs illustrate the dangers of chasing the next “Hot Thing”

The ASX200 surged +0.6% on Wednesday, closing within 0.2% of its all-time trading high after the soft inflation print ignited the rate-sensitive stocks/sectors. Real estate, consumer discretionary, and the financials all closed up more than 1%.

Afternoon report 30/07/2025 17:23

The Match Out: Soft inflation print lights the ASX up on rate cut optimism

A strong session for the ASX today back testing all-time highs with softer than tipped inflation data at 11.30am the catalyst. The RBA having been waiting for this quarterly print on price pressures, and now the door is fully ajar for a rate cut on the 12 August.

Morning report 30/07/2025 09:30

Portfolio Positioning: Today’s CPI is likely to determine if we get an interest rate cut in August

The ASX200 rallied bravely throughout Tuesday to close slightly higher after being down 0.6% earlier in the day. In an overall quiet session, none of the major 11 sectors moved by more than 0.7% but if you look deeper under the hood, it was a tough day for uranium stocks, even though ironically the energy sector was the best on the ground, closing up +0.65%.

Afternoon report 29/07/2025 17:51

The Match Out: Strong recovery from early weakness ahead of inflation data tomorrow

The ASX is looking interesting here for the chartists, with the market having broken out mid-month before coming back to consolidate above the ~8600 breakout level. Today was important, with a retest and ultimate rally, and while the main board only put on +6pts in aggregate, it was +60pts from the morning low – a bullish sign. The move will be tested tomorrow with the important inflation data out at 11.30am, a more benign print (sub 2.1%) should see the market break higher, and vice versa on a hotter read. A pivotal penultimate day of the month! • The ASX200 +6pts/+0.08% closing at 8704

Morning report 29/07/2025 09:27

What Matters Today: Should we buy the pullback in lithium stocks, or abandon ship?

The ASX200 started the week on a firm footing, closing up +0.4%, back within a few points of the psychological 8700 area. The catalyst for the solid day was news that the EU and the US had reached a trade agreement, and President Trump was looking to extend his tariff truce with China - the US S&P 500 futures buoyed sentiment, opening ~0.5% higher on the tariff news.

Afternoon report 28/07/2025 17:24

The Match Out: ASX moves up on weekend trade deals, Boss Energy (BOE) hit as management flags mine issues

The ASX closed higher on Monday as global markets rallied on the back of a new US-EU trade deal, a lower tariff of 15% vs 30% widely expected, as well as signs the US-China tariff truce may be extended for an additional 90 days.