29/11/2023 09:18

Copper $US3.80/lb

Copper has languished through 2023, falling ~20% from its January high as Beijing struggled to kick-start its post-COVID economy – we believe their targeted response will ultimately prove successful, but they aren’t bowing to market pressures as they adopt a slow and steady approach.

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20/11/2023 09:05

Commodities

Crude oil bounced on Friday after making fresh 4-month lows earlier in November after Goldman Sachs said, “We believe OPEC+ will ensure that Brent oil prices end in the $US80-100 range through 2024 by ensuring a moderate deficit and leveraging its pricing power”. OPEC+ is set to meet in Vienna later this week, which looks to have seen traders/investors who held short positions taking profits after the 5-week decline.

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14/11/2023 09:30

Global Markets

Overnight, US stocks recovered from the decline by their futures during our time zone, with the indices largely ending the choppy session unchanged, with energy and healthcare stocks both firm. The S&P5000 has now posted 9 out of 10 positive sessions, a degree of consistency only enjoyed 1% of the time this century, this week will see a plethora of economic data, with tomorrow's CPI.

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06/11/2023 09:00

Commodities

Crude oil is testing 3-month lows even as war rages in the Middle East and the risks of contagion remain very real, i.e. the path of least resistance is down. Central banks don’t always get what they want, but this time, we feel they will, with lower oil prices helping reduce inflation into 2024 – good news for interest rate-sensitive sectors such as real estate.

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30/10/2023 08:59

Commodities

Iron ore continues to rotate around the $US120/MT, ignoring the overwhelming bearish sentiment toward the bulk commodity. Analysts are focusing on the dire state of China's property market, but we believe Beijing’s determination to revitalise its spluttering economy will ultimately be enough to take the iron ore price back up towards  $US140-150, a move which would catch many fund managers underweight the sector.

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23/10/2023 08:46

Commodities

Crude oil closed unchanged last week, largely ignoring tensions in the Middle East which should have been supportive of the commodity, i.e. we don’t like markets that cannot rally with fundamental tailwinds.

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09/10/2023 09:03

Commodities

Iron ore has defied many bears over recent months, with the bulk commodity continuing to trade around $US120 even as Beijing struggles to reignite its economy as the property crisis continues. We remain optimistic that the targeted stimulus by Xi Jinping et al. will eventually turn around the world’s 2nd largest economy, which will prove a bullish catalyst for iron ore. i.e. in FY22, over 80% of Australia's exported iron ore went to China.

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29/09/2023 08:43

Global Markets

US stocks rallied overnight, and after breaking below the psychological 4300 area, the S&P500 is threatening to end the week on the front foot, delivering a strong technical signal in the process, i.e. technically, a close back above 4350 would be bullish, or +1.2% higher. The move overnight was broad-based, with 10 out of 11 sectors advancing, but only two managed to close more than +1% higher.

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25/09/2023 09:27

Commodities

Brent crude oil finally paused at the end of last week after pushing higher throughout the month. At this stage, it's nothing to upset the bulls, just a logical reaction to the hawkish Fed commentary.

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11/09/2023 08:58

Commodities

Brent crude oil continued its march to a fresh 6 month high last week on ongoing supply concerns after Saudi and Russia extended supply cuts last week. Prices are up almost 30% over the previous 3 months, contributing to the increasing global concerns that inflation will remain strong.

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