Morning report 09/09/2024 09:18

Macro Monday: Recession fears regain the upper hand

US stocks were hit on Friday night after a weak Jobs Report increased fears that the Fed is behind the curve with interest rate cuts. This leads to an increased chance of their economy slipping into a recession, as opposed to the “Goldilocks Scenario,” which investors have embraced through most of 2024. It reminds us of going back to school and the dreaded Calculus, particularly a sinusoidal wave with the top being the “Goldilocks Scenario” and the bottom a recession. US equities have been ignoring several leading indicators over recent months, but the bears came home to roost on Friday night.

Weekend report 07/09/2024 08:00

Weekend Q&A: Recession fears grow as US Jobs Report just misses expectations

The ASX200 slipped 1% last week, with Wednesday's +150-point plunge dominating the five days. Again, the rate-sensitive banks, real estate, and tech sectors stemmed the losses, but the broad market fell, with the sellers again paying particular attention to China-facing stocks. Last night, recession fears hit US tech and consumer discretionary sectors the hardest; the real estate stocks held firm on interest rate hopes, illustrating the fascinating landscape ahead into Christmas – it would catch traders off guard if China growth sentiment trumped that of the US into 2025, its certainly at a low point today!

Afternoon report 06/09/2024 17:04

The Match Out: Banks lead ASX higher, Healius (HLS) hit on broker downgrade

Just one those weeks! Glad to see the back of it where our portfolio positioning in our Growth Portfolio was put under pressure. Too heavy in resources at a time of global growth worries, too slow to dial it back and now we need to take a deep breath because selling/reducing exposure after the horse has bolted is a rarely a good move. As we wrote during the week, if we didn’t have the positions we do, we’d be stepping up to the plate, however, prudent portfolio management means we can only go so far.

Morning report 06/09/2024 09:28

What Matters Today: MM’s Favourite Three Financials – outside of the banks

The local Financials index looks great at first glance, but it contains the “Big Four” banks, which have been charging ahead since late 2023. When we look under the hood of the diversified financials, it’s been a mixed year for the sector, which was exemplified by the 11% drop by Challenger (CGF) yesterday following Apollo's $530mn sell-down. In general, traditional fund managers have struggled while insurers and more new-age stocks have rallied. This morning, we’ve looked at three of our top picks as we consider what/where to increase exposure to the space into a period of market weakness.

Afternoon report 06/09/2024 09:31

The Match Out: ASX higher, Property stocks lead

A reasonable session today, after an aggressive sell-off yesterday swept through the ASX, and while IT topped the boards, Real-Estate stocks caught our eye with brokers starting to turn more positive on the sector, arguably a bit late, but we agree with the view

Morning report 05/09/2024 09:53

What Matters Today: Commodities are hurting right now, but have we got the right mix for when they turn?

The ASX200 was hammered yesterday, losing over 150-points and retracing over 30% of August's recovery in one fell swoop – a classic case of up by the stairs and down by the elevator. Losses were broad-based, with all 11 sectors and over 90% of stocks closing lower, a bad day at the office being an understatement. The influential banks and resources followed the negative lead from the US, with all eyes now turning to Friday’s US Jobs report; if it comes in poor, we may be in store for a repeat of early August as recession fears mount. US credit markets are already pricing in one 0.25% rate cut this month (with the possibility of 0.5% in play) and a full 1% by Christmas.

Afternoon report 04/09/2024 17:31

The Match Out: ASX hit nearly 2% with resources still struggling

A tough day for Aussie stocks, resources and energy companies in particular as global growth fears resurfaced overnight on the back of a softer-than-expected manufacturing read in the US. Worth bearing in mind that markets had pushed up hard into the end of August so some unwind of the month-end window dressing no doubt played a part, however, with 91% of ASX 200 stocks finishing in the red, there were not many places to hide.

Morning report 04/09/2024 09:17

Portfolio Positioning: Looking forward post a solid reporting season

Overnight equities endured a tough session. The EURO STOXX 50, which led European bourses, fell 1.2%, reversing early small gains as US weakness weighed on sentiment. The tech-based NASDAQ tumbled over 3%, dragging the S&P500 down 2.1%, with Nvidia’s sharp ~10% drop setting the stage for an already jumpy market capable of swinging dramatically on any unfavourable economic data. This morning, our first thought was whether September would start in a volatile fashion similar to August, it feels like another wave of recession fears is just one major piece of economic data away with non-farm payrolls due on Friday a very important read.

Afternoon report 03/09/2024 17:32

The Match Out: ASX flat, IT & Financials offset weakness in Resources

Another session that looked calm on the surface, though under the hood there was a lot playing out, resources weighed as selling targeted Lithium, Iron Ore & Uranium stocks, while Woolies & Coles traded ex-dividend weighing on the Staples - the ASX 200 finished just 11 points below its all-time closing high.

Morning report 03/09/2024 17:34

What Matters Today: Evaluating five of the high-performing “hot stocks.”

The story remains the same as we kick off September, with the ASX200 falling early in the session before clawing back all of the losses to end the session higher, with the banks again performing the heavy lifting – the “Big Four” advanced an average of +1.2% after all four traded lower in the first hour. Less than 55% of the main board closed higher, but the influential big-4 were enough to offset another tough session for the embattled miners as China’s economy continues to struggle.