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Fairly valued
Morningstar Quantitative Rating as of 28 OCT 2026.
Quantitative Equity Rating Methodology – view here
Five-star price 150.02 Fair value 190.14 One-star price 240.99
Morningstar Quantitative Rating as of 28 OCT 2026.
Morningstar Quantitative Rating as of 28 OCT 2026. The slider runs from the five-star price (150.02) to the one-star price (240.99).
| Ratios |
|---|
| Currency (Price/reporting): AUD/USD |
| Exchange Rate: 1.4319 |
| Price - closing or last bid | 197.50 |
| Price - 12 month high | 199.00 |
| Price - 12 month low | 90.00 |
| Pricing date | 28 OCT 2026 |
| Volume - avg. trading volume for the last ten days | 1.15 |
| Market capitalization | 94,777.14 |
| 12 Month High price date | 28 OCT 2026 |
| 12 Month Low price date | 3 JUN 2026 |
| Volume - avg. trading volume for the last 3 months | 1.28 |
| Price - 1 Day % Change | 0.20% |
| Price - 13 week price percent change | 65.24% |
| Price - 26 week price percent change | 53.22% |
| Price - 5 Day % Change | 0.72% |
| Price - 52 week price percent change | 11.04% |
| Price - YTD price percent change | 14.39% |
| Price % Change Month To Date | 8.57% |
| EPS excluding extraordinary items - most recent fiscal year | -5.350 |
| EPS excluding extraordinary items - trailing 12 month | -5.350 |
| EPS Normalized - most recent fiscal year | 6.428 |
| Revenue/share - most recent fiscal year | 32.570 |
| Revenue/share - trailing 12 month | 32.570 |
| Book value per share - most recent fiscal year | 30.897 |
| Book value per share - most recent half-year | 30.897 |
| Book value (tangible) per share - most recent fiscal year | 11.157 |
| Book value (tangible) per share - most recent half-year | 11.157 |
| Cash per share - most recent fiscal year | 3.159 |
| Cash per share - most recent half-year | 3.159 |
| Cash Flow per share - most recent fiscal year | 7.287 |
| Cash Flow per share - trailing 12 month | 7.287 |
| Dividend per share - most recent fiscal year | — |
| Dividends per share - trailing 12 month | 4.054 |
| EBITD per share - trailing 12 month | -5.479 |
| EPS Basic excluding extraordinary items - most recent fiscal year | -5.350 |
| EPS Basic excluding extraordinary items - trailing 12 month | -5.350 |
| EPS including extraordinary items - most recent fiscal year | -5.350 |
| EPS including extraordinary items - trailing 12 month | -5.350 |
| Free Cash Flow per share - trailing 12 month | 4.631 |
| P/E excluding extraordinary items, most recent fiscal year | — |
| P/E Normalized, most recent fiscal year | 20.82 |
| Price to sales - most recent fiscal year | 4.11 |
| Price to Tangible Book - most fiscal year | 16.98 |
| Price to Free Cash Flow per Share - most recent fiscal year | 28.89 |
| Price to Cash Flow per share - trailing 12 month | 18.36 |
| Price to Book - most recent fiscal year | 4.40 |
| P/E excluding extraordinary items high, trailing 12 months | 19.54 |
| P/E excluding extraordinary items low, trailing 12 months | 9.67 |
| Net Debt, LFI | 9,993.00 |
| Net Debt, LFY | 9,383.00 |
| Dividend Yield - 5 Year Average | 1.43% |
| Dividend Yield - indicated annual dividend divided by closing price | 2.06% |
| Current Dividend Yield - Common Stock Primary Issue, LTM | 2.05% |
| Free Cash Flow - most recent fiscal year | 2,232.00 |
| LT debt/equity - most recent fiscal year | 59.81% |
| Payout ratio - most recent fiscal year | — |
| Total debt/total equity - most recent fiscal year | 66.82% |
| LT debt/equity - most recent half-year | 50.93% |
| Total debt/total equity - most recent half-year | 54.44% |
| Free Cash Flow - trailing 12 month | 2,232.00 |
| Payout ratio - trailing 12 month | — |
| Revenue - most recent fiscal year | 15,698.00 |
| Revenue - trailing 12 month | 15,698.00 |
| EBITD - most recent fiscal year | -2,641.00 |
| EBITD - trailing 12 month | -2,641.00 |
| Earnings before taxes - most recent fiscal year | -4,087.00 |
| Earnings before taxes - trailing 12 month | -4,087.00 |
| Net Income available to common - most recent fiscal year | -2,579.00 |
| Net Income available to common - trailing 12 months | -2,579.00 |
| Earnings before taxes Normalized - most recent fiscal year | 3,982.00 |
| Net Income Available to Common, Normalized - most recent fiscal year | 3,098.00 |
| Earnings per Share, Normalized, Excluding Extraordinary Items, Avg. Diluted Shares Outstanding, TTM | 6.43 |
| Net Profit Margin % - 1st historical fiscal year | -19.02% |
| Net Profit Margin % - trailing 12 month | -19.02% |
| Operating margin - 1st historical fiscal year | 26.39% |
| Operating margin - trailing 12 month | 26.39% |
| Pretax margin - trailing 12 month | -26.04% |
| Pretax margin - 1st historical fiscal year | -26.04% |
| Operating Margin - 5 year average | 25.37% |
| Pretax Margin - 5 year average | 13.56% |
| Free Operating Cash Flow/Revenue, 5 Year Average | 10.66% |
| Free Operating Cash Flow/Revenue, TTM | 14.22% |
| Net Profit Margin - 5 year average | 11.66% |
| Return on average assets - most recent fiscal year | -8.07% |
| Return on average assets - trailing 12 month | -8.07% |
| Return on average equity - most recent fiscal year | -16.97% |
| Return on average equity - trailing 12 month | -16.97% |
| Return on average assets - 5 year average | 6.22% |
| Return on average equity - 5 year average | 12.75% |
| Net Income/employee - most recent fiscal year | — |
| Revenue/employee - most recent fiscal year | — |
| Revenue growth rate, 5 year | 8.87% |
| EPS growth rate, 5 year | — |
| Growth rate% - dividend, 3 year | 6.67% |
| Revenue/share (5 yr growth) | 7.66% |
| Growth rate% - Revenue, 3 year | 6.02% |
| Growth rate% - EPS, 3 year | — |
| Book value per share growth rate, 5 year | 10.90% |
| Capital Spending growth rate, 5 year | -5.15% |
| Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation & Amortization, 5 Year CAGR | — |
Financial forecast (AUD, millions except per share)
| Actuals | Estimates | |||||||
| 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | |||||
| Estimate breakdown | ||||||||
Financials (USD, millions)
| Period end: | JUN 22 | JUN 23 | JUN 24 | JUN 25 | JUN 26 |
| Fiscal year: | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
| Period length: | 12 months | 12 months | 12 months | 12 months | 12 months |
Announcements
| DATE | TIME | HEADING | PAGES |
| Price sensitive |
CSL +17.25%: surged after delivering a better-than-feared FY26 result, with revenue strength across all three divisions and underlying earnings ahead of expectations. The key positive was CSL Behring, particularly immunoglobulins, while FY27 guidance also landed in line with consensus.
Previous market favourite CSL has endured a torrid year, plunging ~70% at its worst. The company has delivered four downgrades in less than a year, turning sentiment towards the ASX healthcare giant on its head, dramatically reducing it’s index weight in the process. The latest update, last month here, showed the company is struggling on a number of fronts as it attempts to steady the proverbial ship.
CSL –15.96%: collapsed after cutting FY26 guidance and flagging a further ~US$5bn in impairments, as the company acknowledged its turnaround is taking longer than expected following a strategic review by interim CEO Gordon Naylor.
This $63bn global biopharma leader operating across three core divisions: CSL Behring, its dominant plasma therapies business generating the majority of earnings; CSL Seqirus, a major global influenza vaccine provider; and CSL Vifor, focused on iron deficiency and kidney disease following its 2022 acquisition.
CSL -4.64%: Traded down today on a 1H miss and scepticism they’ll meet full year guidance, which they re-affirmed this morning. The stock was down ~13%R at the lows before sanity prevailed and it recovered some of the very steep losses. We covered the result this morning here, so we’ll just give some flavour around other broker’s views on the number. At MM, we don’t think the result is as bad as the market had feared, and this mornings brutal sell-off down to $150.16, will ultimately prove to the a low point for CSL.
CSL captured the headlines for all of the wrong reasons yesterday as they announced the abrupt departure of CEO Paul McKenzie ahead of this morning’s 1H26 results – which are pretty much in line with expectations at the headline level, but some weakness in composition and they have a lot of work to do in the 2H.
CSL -15.87: Belted today, down as much as 17% to the lowest level since 2018, after the company scrapped its 2026 target to demerge Seqirus. The reason? A sharp drop in US flu vaccination rates (-12% overall, -14% in seniors), pushing Seqirus revenues into a mid-teens decline and undermining the value case for a standalone listing.
After CSL’s aggressive sell-off last month, it's been the topic of conversation with many investors caught long this much-loved $99bn healthcare giant. We discussed CSL in detail following August's result, which led to the sell-off despite earnings being up 14%, cash flow growing 29%, and the company announcing a $750 million share buyback.
MM remains neutral toward CSL
MM is cautiously bullish towards CSL ~$115
MM remains neutral CSL ~$100
MM is neutral towards CSL around $130
MM is mildly bullish CSL ~$150
MM is selling CSL in the Active Growth Portfolio, taking a loss around $145.00
MM is now looking to add to our underweight CSL position in the Growth Portfolio
MM is bullish towards CSL around $150
MM remains long and cautiously bullish on CSL around $170
MM will remain patient on CSL for now
CSL is one of the largest global biotech companies and has three main segments. CSL Behring uses either plasma-derived proteins or recombinants to treat conditions including immunodeficiencies, bleeding disorders, and neurological indications. CSL Seqirus is the world's second-largest influenza vaccination business and was acquired in fiscal 2016. CSL Vifor is an iron deficiency and nephrology business and was acquired in fiscal 2023. CSL has a strong R&D record, and its product portfolio and pipeline include nonplasma products as the firm continues to broaden its scope. Originally formed in Australia as a government-owned entity, CSL now earns roughly half its revenue in North America and one-fourth in Europe.
Pulse Check Webinar: Opportunities in the unloved parts of the market
Recorded Wednesday 27st September
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