What Matters Today: Should we chase retail stocks as the Fed cuts interest rates?

This morning, AEST, the Fed cut interest rates by an outsized 0.5%, leading to an initial 375-point surge by the Dow, which subsequently reversed, leaving the old index down over 100 points. Traders initially embraced the large rate cut, though it did raise concerns that the Fed was trying to get ahead of potential economic weakness. We should remember that credit markets were already pricing a 65% chance of such an aggressive move. Comments from the Fed focused on inflation first and foremost, but they are conscious of a slowing economy:

• “The Committee has gained greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward 2%, and judges that the risks to achieving its employment and inflation goals are roughly in balance,”

The Fed are comfortable that inflation is under control, and in the ensuing press conference, Jerome Powell was balanced around the economy: “I don’t see anything in the economy right now that suggests that the likelihood … of a downturn is elevated,” said Powell. However, stocks faltered as they got their anticipated sugar hit, but latched onto commentary that implied we shouldn’t get used to this size of cut.

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Afternoon report 18/12/2025 17:25

The Match Out: ASX bounces into the close, Boss Energy hit on mine update

The ASX was on track to finish lower for a fourth consecutive session, before a solid rally in the afternoon positioned the index with its head just above water.

Morning report 18/12/2025 09:38

What Matters Today: Does MM like any of the 5 stocks racing to the bottom on Wednesday?

The ASX200 closed down another -0.2% on Wednesday, but this time it bounced well off its lows to close near its intra-day high, helped by a strong rally by the miners throughout the day. At the end of the session, the materials sector was the only one of the eleven to advance, but its +1.6% rise was enough to offset much of the broad-based losses spearheaded by the healthcare and energy stocks.

Afternoon report 17/12/2025 17:00

The Match Out: ASX slips, Gold stocks rally

The ASX eased on Wednesday as softer oil prices and muted implications from US labour data was largely offset by strength in gold miners. We’ve got two more trading sessions before the majority of the market head for Christmas holidays, with next week’s trade likely to be very quiet.

Morning report 17/12/2025 09:48

Portfolio Positioning: A Christmas rally is running out of time

The ASX 200 dropped 0.4% on Tuesday, reversing early gains as the tech and energy sectors led the decline, falling by 2.5% and 2.2%, respectively. However, it was the miners that dragged the index lower, with the materials sector contributing more than 40% of the drop as profit taking rolled across the space. The selling was triggered on two fronts as global investors adopted an “if in doubt, get out” approach ahead of key US jobs data, and of course, Christmas.

Afternoon report 16/12/2025 16:50

The Match Out: ASX slips, more pain for Tech

The ASX slipped into negative territory through the session as early strength in the banks was offset by sharp weakness across technology and energy stocks. Investors remained cautious ahead of delayed US labour market data for October & November due tonight, which could shape expectations for further Federal Reserve rate cuts into 2026.

Morning report 16/12/2025 09:28

What Matters Today: Four “Dogs” of 2025 that are gaining traction

The ASX 200 opened weaker on Monday and failed to bounce, ultimately closing down -0.7%, with over 60% of the main board closing lower on the day. It was a rare day for FY26, with the miners leading the market to its worst session in three weeks, with BHP’s 2.9% decline contributing a whopping 35% of the day's decline.

Afternoon report 15/12/2025 16:44

The Match Out: Commodities cool, ASX closes lower in volatile session

The ASX traded lower on Monday, giving back 70% of Fridays strong rally. Selling was broad based, with 10 of 11 sectors in the red with a sharp commodity selloff headlining the weakness as copper, iron ore and lithium stocks got whacked. Market’s now look ahead to Australia’s mid-year budget update and central bank meetings in the UK, Europe and Japan.

Morning report 15/12/2025 09:38

Macro Monday: The Tech Sector may surprise many this week

Over the past three months, Australian financial markets have had to adjust to a sudden reversal in expectations for the RBA cash rate, shifting from the anticipation of cuts to projected hikes in 2026. A complete 180, which has caused significant volatility at the stock and sector levels as investors have had to alter their positioning.

Weekend report 13/12/2025 09:41

Weekend Q&A: Equities forge higher after the Fed & RBA cast their votes

The ASX 200 surged +1.2% on Friday, taking the local bourse to fresh 4-week highs as the miners continued to support the market. The index ended the week up +0.7% but it felt like more after the strong rally into the weekend saw the local bourse enjoy its best session in five weeks. The tech rotation story continues, but fortunately for the ASX, the influential miners have been major beneficiaries as commodity prices charge higher, led this week by silver and copper.

Afternoon report 12/12/2025 16:45

The Match Out: ASX up 1.2%, Best session in months, Commodities lead

The ASX had a great session to end the week, its strongest session in three weeks as a sharp rally in commodities – led by gold and copper, and support from the financials – combined with renewed optimism around US monetary easing, booking a third straight weekly gain, the longest run since August. Despite the equity strength, rate expectations remain in flux, with Citi now forecasting Australian rate hikes in February and May.