07/02/2024 09:25

Nick Scali (NCK) $14.00

The furniture retailer closed at near 12-month highs yesterday on the back of a strong 1H report as retailers continue to defy the doom and gloom out there from an economic perspective. The much-talked-about spending cliff hasn’t eventuated, or at least not to the same degree as anticipated, and even the RBA has conceded their efforts to take some heat out of the economy are taking longer than expected.

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24/11/2023 09:06

Nick Scali Ltd (NCK) $10.84

Yesterday’s sell-down of NCK was executed at ~$11 and underwritten by UBS, the scion's first sell-down in 5-years. Mr Scali remains the largest shareholder with an 8% stake, and after the stock's phenomenal run post-COVID and the risk of an interest rate-caused consumer slowdown through 2024/5, we can see the logic in taking some money off the table, especially as the stock has been trading in the current region +/- $4 range for the last few years.

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11/08/2023 16:53

Nick Scali (NCK) $12.12

NCK +13.27%: the furniture retailer hit 6-month highs today on a strong result but flagged a weak start to FY24. Revenue of $507m was largely in line with consensus however better margins drove a 5% beat at the profit line to $101m.

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27/06/2023 09:25

Nick Scali Ltd (NCK) $8.36

Furniture retailer Nick Scali (NCK) has halved from its late 2021 high posing the obvious question, has it gone too far? 1H numbers were largely in line with expectations with slightly weaker sales offset by higher margins but sales/orders were noticeably trending lower. Fixed costs make up a significant portion of the total for the company, so a small change in sales has a leveraged detrimental impact on earnings. While this is likely to weigh on performance near term, we expect this can reverse to become a tailwind over the medium term with the stock a great way to play a recovery in housing & retail.

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17/05/2023 09:20

Nick Scali (NCK) $9.52

We have some discretionary retail exposure in the portfolio through Premier Investments (PMV), however, we have had our eye on furniture retailer Nick Scali (NCK) since their ~30% decline from February highs. 1H numbers were largely in line with expectations with slightly weaker sales offset by higher margins. This did hide the underlying issue though with sales showing a significant slowdown late in the half and early in the new year, plus normalization of the order book placing the company ~$70m behind in 2H sales to start the half (order bank was $185m at the start of FY23 vs $112m at 31 Dec.

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06/02/2023 16:44

Nick Scali (NCK) $10.80

NCK -13.04%: the furniture retailer announced 1H results today with a strong 6-months unable to offset lacklustre commentary. Revenue jumped 57% to $284m, helped by improving delivery times and a full contribution from Plush which was acquired in 2021.

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14/07/2022 09:33

Nick Scali Ltd (NCK) $8.77

Quality furniture operator NCK has endured a number of headwinds over the last 12-months including delivery issues due to escalating Covid problems in China, a cautious consumer as interest rates rise and a slowing housing market. However, when things look their worst opportunities arise and we feel NCK is setting itself up to be such a situation after it’s more than halved since late 2021. Again the stock ‘s cheap trading on a 9.2x Est. 2022 while its estimated yield of 6.5% is clearly attractive.

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09/06/2022 09:14

Nick Scali Ltd (NCK) $8.50

NCK is a quality furniture retailer that like many businesses has struggled to deliver orders due to COVID shutdowns in China, but things appear to be slowly improving on the ground in the world’s 2nd largest economy and we feel value is rapidly emerging after the stocks halved over the last 6-months.

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03/02/2022 17:06

Nick Scali (NCK) $14.54

NCK +0.97%: a choppy day for the furniture retailer, but shares closed higher in the end reflecting the small beat. Revenue was down 5.4% on last year to $180m, though earnings fell 6.6% to $35.6m in the half as various COVID related costs jumped – store closures & supply chain disruptions the culprits. Earnings are on track to meet full year expectations...

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14/01/2022 09:29

Nick Scali (NCK) $13.90

Finally furniture retailer NCK which has soared since last October when it announced the $103m acquisition of rival Plush. This is a quality business which is already forecast to yield around 4.5% fully franked, the risk / reward would look very appealing around 5% lower.

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