TPG Telecom (ASX:TPG) $3.81
TPG +7.39%: delivered a mixed 1H26 result, with revenue and underlying profit below expectations but importantly reaffirming FY26 guidance.
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Undervalued
Morningstar Quantitative Rating as of 11 NOV 2026.
Quantitative Equity Rating Methodology – view here
Five-star price 4.11 Fair value 4.50 One-star price 4.93
Morningstar Quantitative Rating as of 11 NOV 2026.
Morningstar Quantitative Rating as of 11 NOV 2026. The slider runs from the five-star price (4.11) to the one-star price (4.93).
| Ratios |
|---|
| Currency (Price/reporting): AUD/AUD |
| Exchange Rate: 1.0000 |
| Price - closing or last bid | 4.04 |
| Price - 12 month high | 5.78 |
| Price - 12 month low | 3.47 |
| Pricing date | 11 NOV 2026 |
| Volume - avg. trading volume for the last ten days | 4.27 |
| Market capitalization | 7,930.64 |
| 12 Month High price date | 12 NOV 2025 |
| 12 Month Low price date | 30 JUL 2026 |
| Volume - avg. trading volume for the last 3 months | 3.67 |
| Price - 1 Day % Change | 1.76% |
| Price - 13 week price percent change | 11.60% |
| Price - 26 week price percent change | -2.88% |
| Price - 5 Day % Change | 0.25% |
| Price - 52 week price percent change | -29.00% |
| Price - YTD price percent change | 6.60% |
| Price % Change Month To Date | 4.12% |
| EPS excluding extraordinary items - most recent fiscal year | 0.028 |
| EPS excluding extraordinary items - trailing 12 month | 0.029 |
| EPS Normalized - most recent fiscal year | 0.070 |
| Revenue/share - most recent fiscal year | 2.699 |
| Revenue/share - trailing 12 month | 2.614 |
| Book value per share - most recent fiscal year | 4.417 |
| Book value per share - most recent half-year | 4.345 |
| Book value (tangible) per share - most recent fiscal year | -0.170 |
| Book value (tangible) per share - most recent half-year | -0.176 |
| Cash per share - most recent fiscal year | 0.037 |
| Cash per share - most recent half-year | 0.028 |
| Cash Flow per share - most recent fiscal year | 1.096 |
| Cash Flow per share - trailing 12 month | 1.031 |
| Dividend per share - most recent fiscal year | — |
| Dividends per share - trailing 12 month | 0.190 |
| EBITD per share - trailing 12 month | 0.835 |
| EPS Basic excluding extraordinary items - most recent fiscal year | 0.028 |
| EPS Basic excluding extraordinary items - trailing 12 month | 0.029 |
| EPS including extraordinary items - most recent fiscal year | 0.247 |
| EPS including extraordinary items - trailing 12 month | 0.232 |
| Free Cash Flow per share - trailing 12 month | 0.640 |
| P/E excluding extraordinary items, most recent fiscal year | 141.16 |
| P/E Normalized, most recent fiscal year | 77.76 |
| Price to sales - most recent fiscal year | 1.55 |
| Price to Tangible Book - most fiscal year | — |
| Price to Free Cash Flow per Share - most recent fiscal year | 6.31 |
| Price to Cash Flow per share - trailing 12 month | 3.92 |
| Price to Book - most recent fiscal year | 0.93 |
| P/E excluding extraordinary items high, trailing 12 months | 155.00 |
| P/E excluding extraordinary items low, trailing 12 months | 125.36 |
| Net Debt, LFI | 4,127.00 |
| Net Debt, LFY | 4,082.00 |
| Dividend Yield - 5 Year Average | 3.59% |
| Dividend Yield - indicated annual dividend divided by closing price | 4.76% |
| Current Dividend Yield - Common Stock Primary Issue, LTM | 4.70% |
| Free Cash Flow - most recent fiscal year | 1,184.00 |
| LT debt/equity - most recent fiscal year | 45.82% |
| Payout ratio - most recent fiscal year | — |
| Total debt/total equity - most recent fiscal year | 47.91% |
| LT debt/equity - most recent half-year | 47.09% |
| Total debt/total equity - most recent half-year | 49.03% |
| Free Cash Flow - trailing 12 month | 1,229.00 |
| Payout ratio - trailing 12 month | — |
| Revenue - most recent fiscal year | 5,041.00 |
| Revenue - trailing 12 month | 5,018.00 |
| EBITD - most recent fiscal year | 1,596.00 |
| EBITD - trailing 12 month | 1,604.00 |
| Earnings before taxes - most recent fiscal year | 7.00 |
| Earnings before taxes - trailing 12 month | 32.00 |
| Net Income available to common - most recent fiscal year | 461.00 |
| Net Income available to common - trailing 12 months | 435.00 |
| Earnings before taxes Normalized - most recent fiscal year | 71.00 |
| Net Income Available to Common, Normalized - most recent fiscal year | 130.00 |
| Earnings per Share, Normalized, Excluding Extraordinary Items, Avg. Diluted Shares Outstanding, TTM | 0.05 |
| Net Profit Margin % - 1st historical fiscal year | 1.03% |
| Net Profit Margin % - trailing 12 month | 1.10% |
| Operating margin - 1st historical fiscal year | 7.92% |
| Operating margin - trailing 12 month | 7.79% |
| Pretax margin - trailing 12 month | 0.64% |
| Pretax margin - 1st historical fiscal year | 0.14% |
| Operating Margin - 5 year average | 6.79% |
| Pretax Margin - 5 year average | 2.37% |
| Free Operating Cash Flow/Revenue, 5 Year Average | 9.93% |
| Free Operating Cash Flow/Revenue, TTM | 24.49% |
| Net Profit Margin - 5 year average | 2.31% |
| Return on average assets - most recent fiscal year | 0.30% |
| Return on average assets - trailing 12 month | 0.35% |
| Return on average equity - most recent fiscal year | 0.50% |
| Return on average equity - trailing 12 month | 0.58% |
| Return on average assets - 5 year average | 0.63% |
| Return on average equity - 5 year average | 1.02% |
| Net Income/employee - most recent fiscal year | — |
| Revenue/employee - most recent fiscal year | — |
| Revenue growth rate, 5 year | 2.99% |
| EPS growth rate, 5 year | -17.34% |
| Growth rate% - dividend, 3 year | 0.94% |
| Revenue/share (5 yr growth) | -6.43% |
| Growth rate% - Revenue, 3 year | -2.36% |
| Growth rate% - EPS, 3 year | -3.63% |
| Book value per share growth rate, 5 year | -7.14% |
| Capital Spending growth rate, 5 year | 4.76% |
| Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation & Amortization, 5 Year CAGR | 2.79% |
Financial forecast (AUD, millions except per share)
| Actuals | Estimates | |||||||
| 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | ||||||
| Estimate breakdown | ||||||||
Financials (AUD, millions)
| Period end: | DEC 21 | DEC 22 | DEC 23 | DEC 24 | DEC 25 |
| Fiscal year: | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
| Period length: | 12 months | 12 months | 12 months | 12 months | 12 months |
Announcements
| DATE | TIME | HEADING | PAGES |
| Price sensitive |
TPG +7.39%: delivered a mixed 1H26 result, with revenue and underlying profit below expectations but importantly reaffirming FY26 guidance.
TPG has really disappointed since COVID, although things aren’t as bad as they look at a glance, following the sale of TPG's fibre assets to Vocus for $5.25 billion, which led to one of the largest capital management initiatives seen on the ASX in recent years, with approximately $3 billion returned to shareholders through a capital return and special dividend, in the process shoring up the company's balance sheet.
We recently added TPG to our Active Growth Portfolio Hitlist in anticipation of a what the telco would do with its ~$4.7bn net proceeds from its Vocus sale.
Over the last year, Telstra (TLS) has noticeably outperformed TPG, although they have danced in tandem so far in 2025, with both up ~22%. We don’t currently have any exposure to the sector in our Active Growth Portfolio, hence when talk of a potential capital return by TPG gathers momentum, we start to listen.
We have avoided TPG for well over two years, and although the outlook has improved, it is unlikely to be on our Hitlist in 2024. TPG, like TLS, is planning job cuts, although not of the same magnitude, as the telco group, which is carrying more than $4 billion in debt, endeavours to reduce its expenses. TPG’s latest net profit came down 40% YoY due to rising costs from leasing agreements and high interest rates; trimming its workforce by 2-3% will help, but not meaningfully.
TPG has made fresh all-time lows this week and is currently sitting down -17.8% year-to-date. Note that statistically, buying stocks making a new low is a dangerous game. TPG is not a quality stock, with margins under pressure from increasing competition and debt/interest issues looming. Our stance hasn’t changed; we prefer TLS for income and ABB for growth, with TPG simply in the “too-hard basket.”
TPG delivered another poor result in February, with margins under pressure from increasing competition and debt/interest issues. Our stance hasn’t changed; we prefer TLS for income and ABB for growth, with TPG simply in the “too hard basket.”
TPG -8.02%: A poor FY23 result today for the telco as increasing competition and a high debt burden bite. Revenue of $5.54bn was up 2% YoY but below $5.59bn consensus, however softer margins hurt earnings (EBITDA), which came in at $1.87bn v $1.92bn expected. They declared a 9cps fully franked dividend.
TPG was the worst-performing stock on the ASX200 on Monday, ultimately closing -11.7% lower after data services business Vocus abandoned its $US4.2bn bid for TPG fibre assets - there has been a noticeable trend of suitors walking away from deals of late. TPG has said it will keep exploring its options and has strong interest from other outside investors, although the price/deal might not be as attractive.
TPG surged higher at the start of August after announcing its in talks to offload assets to Macquarie Asset Management’s Vocus Group for a healthy $6.3bn. The TPG Board has granted Vocus Group a period of exclusive due diligence, currently set to expire on 6 September 2023. Under the proposed deal, TPG would be retaining its Consumer business, mobile wholesale and active mobile infrastructure while some of the monies received could be used for a special dividend after strengthening their balance sheet – best guess would be 10-25c.
MM is mildly bullish TPG
MM is neutral towards TPG around $3.60
MM is now neutral, TPG around $5.30
MM can see TPG outperforming TLS into Christmas
MM is bullish TPG into 2026
MM is neutral to cautiously bullish toward TPG
MM is neutral at best toward TPG
MM has no interest in TPG
MM prefers TLS & ABB over TPG
MM is neutral toward TPG
TPG Telecom is Australia's third-largest telecom services operator. It offers mobile, fixed-line broadband and telephony solutions. The group's mobile business caters to all market segments spanning consumer, small business, corporate, wholesale, and government. TPG Telecom has grown substantially since listing on the ASX in 2008, via organic growth and acquisitions, and culminated with the July 2020 Vodafone Hutchison Australia merger, the third-ranked mobile network operator in Australia. It owns an extensive stable of infrastructure assets, including a nationwide mobile network that is upgrading to 5G wireless. In July 2025, TPG sold its fiber assets for AUD 5.3 billion to Vocus.
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