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The ASX200 finished 1% lower on Wednesday after a hot CPI print dashed hopes of an interest rate cut into Christmas – by the end of the day, futures markets were pricing in a 20% chance of some Christmas joy for mortgage holders and arguably more telling, only one cut at most by next Christmas! Michele Bullock has been warning markets to be conservative with their dovish forecasts, and it’s her crystal ball that’s now looking the clearest.
The dominant forces were geopolitical and monetary policy related. The escalating Iran conflict drove oil above $US101/barrel, stoking inflation concerns and cementing market expectations of an RBA rate hike at Tuesday's meeting - markets are pricing an 80% probability by close. That rate repricing drove a sharp rotation: banks were again the standout beneficiaries, with NAB leading at +1.5%, while gold miners came under significant pressure.
The ASX 200 endured another tough session on Thursday, falling -1.3% and chalking up another triple-digit decline. Several headwinds weighed on the market, most notably oil surging more than ~9% at one stage, with the knock-on impact on bond yields dominating the headlines. A plan by the International Energy Agency to release millions of barrels from strategic reserves failed to calm markets after reports that Iran struck oil tankers near the Strait of Hormuz, escalating fears of supply disruptions through the critical shipping route that carries roughly 20% of global oil trade. Every day Brent crude pushes above US$100 chips away at confidence that the global economy can quickly move past the Iran conflict.
The ASX 200 was hit today inline with a sell-off in US Futures during our time zone as a sudden escalation in the Middle East sent oil prices back above $US100 following attacks on two oil tankers in Iraqi waters, combined with Oman clearing all vessels from its Mina Al Fahal export terminal. Iraq suspended operations at all its oil ports, and this overshadowed the overnight announcement by the IEA around a record release of strategic reserves.
The ASX 200 bounced another +0.6% on Wednesday with the miners and banks dragging the market higher, even when only 45% of the main board closed in positive territory. To put things into perspective, the local bourse closed up 50-points with the miners alone contributing +42 points to the day, helped by another solid day for iron ore, and related names. Traders were offered some relief from the recent volatility spurred by the Iran war on Wednesday after the International Energy Agency (IEA) reportedly proposed the release of oil reserves. Unfortunately, the market failed to follow the heavyweight sectors higher, with weakness resurfacing in the tech and high growth stocks, more on this later with the Tech Sector, closing down 1.6%, just missing out on the wooden spoon to the Utilities sector.
The ASX pushed higher on Wednesday, closing up 0.6% as miners and banks did the heavy lifting in a session defined almost entirely by a hawkish pivot from the RBA. It wasn't a broad rally — only four of eleven sectors finished in the green — but the heavyweights were enough to keep the index comfortably in positive territory. Overnight US futures are pointing to a modestly positive Wall Street open.
The ASX200 enjoyed a +1.1% relief rally on Tuesday, which saw almost 75% of the main board close higher. The rebound was driven by improved market sentiment, following President Trump's comments on the conflict in the Middle East. His optimistic comments drove oil prices well under the psychological $100 per barrel mark, and it was $94.37 per barrel at our close yesterday. US President Donald Trump told CBS the military operation in the Middle East was "very complete, pretty much" and "very far" ahead of its initial four-to-five-week schedule. A bounce in the influential materials and financials sectors drove the gains, with those two sectors accounting for more than 80% of the day's advance.
The ASX clawed back from Monday’s shellacking, closing up over 1% as Trump’s “pretty much complete” comments on the Iran conflict sent oil tumbling, giving markets room to breathe. It wasn’t a clean recovery. US futures are pointing modestly lower into the close and energy stocks copped heavy profit-taking as the oil tailwind reversed, but the bears didn’t get the follow-through they were looking for, and bargain hunters were active early.
The ASX200 was hammered on Monday, down 2.9%, taking March’s decline to ~6.5% with the month only one-third complete. It’s remarkable to think the market closed at an all-time high of 9200 just a week ago. Stocks tumbled as the Middle East conflict rattled energy markets, pushing oil up more than 25% higher, at one stage testing US$120/barrel. At the same time, bond markets extended losses on rising inflation fears while the US dollar hit its highest level since January, as risk-off sentiment gripped global markets. There was nowhere to hide on a day when ~95% of the main board retreated, and oil and gas giant Woodside (WDS) could only close 2% higher.
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