What Matters Today: If inflation has been tamed, where should we invest?

Overnight saw the Fed hold interest rates steady for the 4th straight meeting while signalling its openness to cut, if not straight away. The Futures markets are now pricing in an implied Fed Funds rate of 3.695% in January 2025, well below today’s effective 5.33% rate – we still believe this outlook will prove too dovish as we move through 2024. Jerome Powell shocked many doves when he effectively took a March cut off the table during the press conference, investors need to be patient!

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Morning report 18/09/2025 09:57

Looking for value in a “rich” market after the Fed cuts rates

This morning, the Fed delivered as expected, while the rhetoric led to volatility but ultimately a mixed close for stocks: • The Fed cut interest rates by 0.25% as expected and pencilled in 2 more cuts before Christmas. • However, looking ahead at the outlook for additional rate moves, Powell was cautious, saying the Fed was now in a “meeting-by-meeting situation.” • The vote was 11-1, with Governor Miran dissenting in favour of 0.5%; he will now be on Trump's Christmas card list. • Chair Jerome Powell pointed to growing signs of weakness in the labour market to explain why officials decided it was time to cut rates after holding them steady since December amid concerns over tariff-driven inflation.

Afternoon report 17/09/2025 17:13

The Match Out: ASX falls ahead of Fed rate call tonight

The ASX gave back ground today after opening only a touch softer; selling quickly set in as traders sat on their hands amid a general risk off feel ahead of the Fed’s rate call tonight. The sharp selloff was met some buying at the ~8800 level, bouncing midmorning but tracked sideways into the afternoon.

Morning report 17/09/2025 09:37

Portfolio Positioning: Less than 24 hours until we hear the eagerly awaited news from the Fed

Afternoon report 16/09/2025 18:13

The Match Out: ASX inches higher again, New Hope (NHC) reports solid result

The market managed to grind out a gain today, helped along by the miners, with particularly strong showings from gold, iron ore and uranium as all three surged on different drivers – we’re taking a breather on gold and took a profit on our Evolution Mining position. Not a lot happening on the macro side to move markets today as all eyes await the Fed rate decision on Thursday, though bits and pieces on the stock front kept things interesting across the retail and resources space.

Alerts 16/09/2025 09:59

Trade Alerts – Active Growth & International Equities Portfolio

We are amending two portfolios this morning.

Morning report 16/09/2025 09:46

What Matters Today: Is it time to fade the weakness in the global healthcare sector?

The ASX 200 slipped 0.1% on Monday as investors continued to “buy the dip”, allowing the market to recover from an initial 0.8% fall. The winners managed to outnumber the losers on the main board, but weakness in heavyweights CBA, BHP and CSL was enough to drag the index into negative territory, albeit just.

Afternoon report 15/09/2025 17:19

The Match Out: ASX sells off early, rallies to narrow losses

The local market kicked things off on the backfoot down ~60pts before it flipped the switch straight after the open and reversed most of the losses though couldn’t claw its way back to positive territory. Profit-taking in gold stocks and weakness in healthcare kept the ASX in the red despite strength across lithium names.

Morning report 15/09/2025 09:16

Macro Monday: The Fed takes centre stage this week

The S&P 500 has surged more than 30% from its April lows, fuelled by expectations that the Fed will cut rates several times this year, with a 25-basis-point move widely seen as a certainty on Wednesday.

Weekend report 13/09/2025 09:05

Weekend Q&A: The ASX200 drifts while US indices post fresh all-time highs

The ASX200 ended last week largely flat, holding September's current pullback to 1.2%. It may have been a quiet week on the index level, but it wasn’t on the sector level, with solid gains by the rate-sensitive tech, real estate, and utilities sectors while the energy sector fell 4.5% as OPEC+ maintained its elevated supply. It was disappointing to see the local index drift while US indices punched higher, although a number of majors trading ex-dividend did weigh locally. The heavyweight miners slipped slightly after mining giants Anglo American / Teck Resources agreed to merge, forming a ~$53 billion copper powerhouse.

Afternoon report 12/09/2025 17:25

The Match Out: ASX finishes the week strong, banks and financials rally

The ASX had a solid end to the week, with a broad-based rally following on from Wall Street’s record-setting session overnight. Expectations that the Fed will move on rate cuts as soon as next week helped fuel gains in financials and miners, while gold continued its charge toward fresh highs, offsetting weakness across the energy names.