What Matters Today: Four stocks MM likes as the inflation outlook improves

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Morning report 30/07/2026 09:43

What Matters Today: Four stocks MM likes as the inflation outlook improves

The ASX 200 surged through 9000 yesterday, closing up +1% at a fresh 4-month high, supported by a soft inflation read (CPI). Gains were fairly broad-based for a triple-digit day with ~70% of the main board advancing, led by the rate-sensitive stocks. As we’ve alluded to in the last few morning reports, the ASX has been getting its mojo back of late, and the soft CPI hasn’t hurt the backdrop for local stocks. Even the Australian Financial Review quoted our comments along these lines overnight:

Afternoon report 29/07/2026 16:45

The Match Out: ASX rallies on softer inflation, hits 5-month high

The ASX 200 hit a five-month high today after softer-than-expected inflation all but removed the prospect of an August interest-rate hike with healthcare, consumer discretionary and consumer staples leading a broad-based rally.

Morning report 30/07/2026 09:44

Portfolio Positioning: The ASX is regaining its “Mojo”

The ASX 200 delivered a stellar albeit surprising performance on Tuesday, reversing early losses to close up +0.6%, posting a 6-week high in the process. The buying gathered momentum after lunch ahead of todays pivotal CPI inflation read, with bonds also strong; it felt like some hawks were squaring their positions in case the CPI comes in softer than expected. However, what was most impressive about the performance was the manner in which the local market shrugged off weakness across the region, where the KOSPI (-11%) and Japanese Nikkei (-4%) combined with weak US futures to paint a clouded picture for risk assets.

Afternoon report 28/07/2026 16:26

The Match Out: ASX tests 6-week high

A solid session locally, with the ASX 200 gaining 0.52% despite US futures remaining slightly lower. The move had the hallmarks of futures-led buying in Australia, with the SPI strengthening through the afternoon and broad gains across consumer discretionary, communications and healthcare, while the major banks also provided support.

Morning report 28/07/2026 10:20

What Matters Today: Is this the time to buy the “Trump Trade?”

The ASX 200 surged +1.4% higher on Monday, delivering its best day in 6 weeks with 85% of the main board closing in positive territory. Only the energy sector closed lower as Middle East tensions eased, sending oil plunging ~9% and global bonds and equities rallied in a classic “risk-on session” for stocks. Ironically, as we head into the uncertainty of Wednesday's Australian Inflation read, it was the sharp reversal higher in bonds (yields lower) following oil's weakness that helped drive rate-sensitive stocks up on Monday, with Tech (+4.5%), Materials (+2.4%), and Real Estate (+1.7%).

Afternoon report 27/07/2026 17:14

The Match Out: ASX surges on deescalation, Discounting at Myer hits margins

The ASX kicked off the new week in fine form that to a pause in US-Iran strikes, putting some probability back on diplomacy. The early spike higher as US Futures rallied was held and built on as the day progressed. Oil traded down 6%, bond yields fell ~10bps and the US was sold, pushing the AUD back up through US70c.

Morning report 27/07/2026 09:55

Macro Monday: Can earnings growth trump rate risks into year-end?

US credit markets are the most hawkish they’ve been in the last 2 years, pricing in one and probably two 0.25% rate hikes by Christmas - not that long since their last rate cut by 0.25% in Dec’25, the final move in an aggressive 1.75% easing cycle. Markets have increased rate hike expectations this month following hawkish Fed signals, renewed inflation concerns from higher oil prices, and rising long-term bond yields as heavy government borrowing increased. A cooler-than-anticipated inflation print (CPI) earlier in the month helped, but the oil price quickly became the overriding factor.

Weekend report 25/07/2026 08:59

Weekend Q&A: Hold on tight, it’s inflation week, just as oil tests US$100

The ASX 200 finished a choppy week down just -0.3%, with the US-Iran conflict and a strong employment report pushing up bond yields, weighing on local risk assets. A Wall Street-led technology sell-off, driven by renewed concerns over the returns on AI capital expenditure, spilled over to the ASX, sending the local technology sector down 6.6% for the week. Healthcare also came under pressure, falling 5.7%, while strength in energy (+5.9%) and materials (+1.7%) helped limit the broader market's losses.

Afternoon report 24/07/2026 17:10

The Match Out: Inflation concerns hit the ASX, Tech the major casualty

The ASX 200 finished firmly lower today as renewed escalation in the Middle East pushed oil back toward US$100/barrel, reigniting inflation and interest-rate concerns. The Aussie 3-year bond yield was up +10bps to 4.72%, while the 10 year yield pushed through 5%, settling at 5.08%.

Morning report 24/07/2026 09:52

ETF Friday: 3 Global ETFs that provide insight into investor positioning

The week's most-watched ETFs tell a consistent story, the AI and semiconductor trade is cracking at the edges, inverse and bear products are seeing genuine retail interest for the first time in months, and international equity ETFs are absorbing record inflows as the broadening rotation away from US exceptionalism accelerates. However, funds continue to flow into stocks, with fund flows into active primary equity ETFs totalling more than US$17.5 billion for the week ending July 24, 2026.