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Fairly valued
Morningstar Quantitative Rating as of 4 NOV 2026.
Quantitative Equity Rating Methodology – view here
Five-star price 31.68 Fair value 35.34 One-star price 39.42
Morningstar Quantitative Rating as of 4 NOV 2026.
Morningstar Quantitative Rating as of 4 NOV 2026. The slider runs from the five-star price (31.68) to the one-star price (39.42).
| Ratios |
|---|
| Currency (Price/reporting): USD/USD |
| Exchange Rate: 1.0000 |
| Price - closing or last bid | 33.26 |
| Price - 12 month high | 41.42 |
| Price - 12 month low | 27.32 |
| Pricing date | 3 NOV 2026 |
| Volume - avg. trading volume for the last ten days | 25.05 |
| Market capitalization | 44,527.12 |
| 12 Month High price date | 21 JAN 2026 |
| 12 Month Low price date | 23 OCT 2026 |
| Volume - avg. trading volume for the last 3 months | 18.72 |
| Price - 1 Day % Change | 1.06% |
| Price - 13 week price percent change | -11.21% |
| Price - 26 week price percent change | 0.85% |
| Price - 5 Day % Change | 18.87% |
| Price - 52 week price percent change | 5.55% |
| Price - YTD price percent change | -10.21% |
| Price % Change Month To Date | 2.78% |
| EPS excluding extraordinary items - most recent fiscal year | 1.140 |
| EPS excluding extraordinary items - trailing 12 month | 1.070 |
| EPS Normalized - most recent fiscal year | 1.170 |
| Revenue/share - most recent fiscal year | 8.882 |
| Revenue/share - trailing 12 month | 9.839 |
| Book value per share - most recent fiscal year | 2.170 |
| Book value per share - most recent quarter | 1.941 |
| Book value (tangible) per share - most recent fiscal year | 2.153 |
| Book value (tangible) per share - most recent quarter | 1.924 |
| Cash per share - most recent fiscal year | 0.269 |
| Cash per share - most recent quarter | 0.501 |
| Cash Flow per share - most recent fiscal year | 1.570 |
| Cash Flow per share - trailing 12 month | 1.496 |
| Dividend per share - most recent fiscal year | — |
| Dividends per share - trailing 12 month | 0.000 |
| EBITD per share - trailing 12 month | 1.691 |
| EPS Basic excluding extraordinary items - most recent fiscal year | 1.150 |
| EPS Basic excluding extraordinary items - trailing 12 month | 1.070 |
| EPS including extraordinary items - most recent fiscal year | 1.150 |
| EPS including extraordinary items - trailing 12 month | 1.070 |
| Free Cash Flow per share - trailing 12 month | 0.848 |
| P/E excluding extraordinary items, most recent fiscal year | 32.90 |
| P/E Normalized, most recent fiscal year | 28.80 |
| Price to sales - most recent fiscal year | 3.58 |
| Price to Tangible Book - most fiscal year | 18.30 |
| Price to Free Cash Flow per Share - most recent fiscal year | 41.51 |
| Price to Cash Flow per share - trailing 12 month | 23.52 |
| Price to Book - most recent fiscal year | 18.14 |
| P/E excluding extraordinary items high, trailing 12 months | 36.17 |
| P/E excluding extraordinary items low, trailing 12 months | 25.25 |
| Net Debt, LFI | 4,699.66 |
| Net Debt, LFY | 4,031.21 |
| Dividend Yield - 5 Year Average | — |
| Dividend Yield - indicated annual dividend divided by closing price | — |
| Current Dividend Yield - Common Stock Primary Issue, LTM | 0.00% |
| Free Cash Flow - most recent fiscal year | 1,441.09 |
| LT debt/equity - most recent fiscal year | 168.64% |
| Payout ratio - most recent fiscal year | — |
| Total debt/total equity - most recent fiscal year | 179.32% |
| LT debt/equity - most recent quarter | 214.96% |
| Total debt/total equity - most recent quarter | 228.05% |
| Free Cash Flow - trailing 12 month | 1,095.63 |
| Payout ratio - trailing 12 month | — |
| Revenue - most recent fiscal year | 11,925.60 |
| Revenue - trailing 12 month | 12,713.48 |
| EBITD - most recent fiscal year | 2,297.18 |
| EBITD - trailing 12 month | 2,185.30 |
| Earnings before taxes - most recent fiscal year | 2,009.52 |
| Earnings before taxes - trailing 12 month | 1,829.85 |
| Net Income available to common - most recent fiscal year | 1,535.76 |
| Net Income available to common - trailing 12 months | 1,377.18 |
| Earnings before taxes Normalized - most recent fiscal year | 2,232.65 |
| Net Income Available to Common, Normalized - most recent fiscal year | 1,568.41 |
| Earnings per Share, Normalized, Excluding Extraordinary Items, Avg. Diluted Shares Outstanding, TTM | 1.22 |
| Net Profit Margin % - 1st historical fiscal year | 12.88% |
| Net Profit Margin % - trailing 12 month | 10.83% |
| Operating margin - 1st historical fiscal year | 16.88% |
| Operating margin - trailing 12 month | 14.95% |
| Pretax margin - trailing 12 month | 14.39% |
| Pretax margin - 1st historical fiscal year | 16.85% |
| Operating Margin - 5 year average | 15.24% |
| Pretax Margin - 5 year average | 15.10% |
| Free Operating Cash Flow/Revenue, 5 Year Average | 10.65% |
| Free Operating Cash Flow/Revenue, TTM | 8.62% |
| Net Profit Margin - 5 year average | 11.59% |
| Return on average assets - most recent fiscal year | 16.77% |
| Return on average assets - trailing 12 month | 15.17% |
| Return on average equity - most recent fiscal year | 45.91% |
| Return on average equity - trailing 12 month | 52.50% |
| Return on average assets - 5 year average | 15.29% |
| Return on average equity - 5 year average | 42.84% |
| Net Income/employee - most recent fiscal year | 11,786.26 |
| Revenue/employee - most recent fiscal year | 91,523.48 |
| Revenue growth rate, 5 year | 14.79% |
| EPS growth rate, 5 year | 35.41% |
| Growth rate% - dividend, 3 year | — |
| Revenue/share (5 yr growth) | 16.09% |
| Growth rate% - Revenue, 3 year | 11.36% |
| Growth rate% - EPS, 3 year | 21.22% |
| Book value per share growth rate, 5 year | 8.50% |
| Capital Spending growth rate, 5 year | 12.28% |
| Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation & Amortization, 5 Year CAGR | 34.15% |
Financial forecast (USD, millions except per share)
| Actuals | Estimates | |||||||
| 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | ||||
| Estimate breakdown | ||||||||
Financials (USD, millions)
| Period end: | DEC 21 | DEC 22 | DEC 23 | DEC 24 | DEC 25 |
| Fiscal year: | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
| Period length: | 12 months | 12 months | 12 months | 12 months | 12 months |
Announcements
Announcements are available for ASX-listed companies only.
An encouraging update from CMG overnight, delivering a better second-quarter result and upgraded its full-year sales outlook. The stock was up +2% in normal hours however the result landed post close, with the shares rallying ~5% after hours.
Chipotle’s 1Q result released on the 30th April should be good enough to steady the ship, with comparable sales coming in ahead of low expectations and April trends showing some early improvement. The stock had already been de-rated meaningfully, so while the numbers were not spectacular in absolute terms, they were better than feared.
The International Equities Strategy had a tough February, falling -8.67%, underperforming the MSCI World by -7.69%. No dressing that up - it was a poor month. Weakness has continued, with the portfolio down ~4.5% in March to date. A meaningful pullback, but within our levels of tolerance for a high conviction, growth-focused portfolio (and within historical ranges we’ve experienced in the past).
An underwhelming 3Q25 results out for the Mexican fast-food chain overnight, with the stock falling ~18% - it’s worst single day move since 2012, after the company cut its same-store sales outlook for the third time this year.
The Mexican fast-food chain met in terms of 2Q numbers however they lowered guidance for the second time this year, and the stock was hit ~8% after hours.
It’s been a weak period for the Mexican eatery business with over 3700 stores primarily in the US, with their last result coming in very mildly below expectations in terms of same-store sales growth, which measures the performance of their existing store network (i.e. excluding the impact of new restaurants).
The Mexican chain reported in line with expectations at the top line (revenue) and earnings, however the keenly watched same store sales growth rate was slightly below expectations;
3Q results were released after market this morning that just missed expectations in terms of revenue and same store sales, but it was not by much. Shares were trading down ~4% after hours.
We are making several changes to the International Equities Portfolio.
The popular Mexican fast food chain recently underwent a share split and has now fallen from $US69 in June, back to ~$US50 this week, with recent quarterly earnings being the primary catalyst. Their quarterly numbers were ahead of expectations, with strong sales for the period and impressive guidance for the top line (i.e. sales remain strong), while they also announced a $US400m share buy-back – all good news; however, cost pressures are building and were highlighted through a cut to Q3 margin guidance, which is where the market has focussed.
MM remains bullish CMG US ~$34
MM remains cautiously bullish CMG US ~$US32
MM will remain patient with CMG US for now
MM remains long CMG US, but now more neutral in the short-term
MM is bullish CMG US ~$US51.66
MM remains long & bullish CMG US ~$US59
MM is long & bullish CMG US
MM are adding to CMG US in the International Equities Portfolio, targeting a 5% weighting around US$56.00
MM remains bullish CMG US
MM prefers CMG US over GYG
Chipotle is a leading fast-casual, Mexican-inspired restaurant chain operator, generating $11.9 billion in sales across 3,983 company-operated US locations, 104 international units primarily in Canada and Europe, and 14 licensed stores largely operated in the Middle East at the end of 2025. The firm's revenue is primarily driven by food and beverage sales at its company-owned restaurants, supplemented by delivery fees generated through its first-party digital channels. Chipotle emphasizes ingredients with no artificial flavors and utilizes an efficient, assembly line service model to serve mainly customizable burritos, bowls, salads, quesadillas, and tacos to diners.
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