12/02/2024 15:56

International Equities Portfolio – Amendments

We are amending the International Equities Portfolio

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07/02/2024 09:26

UBS Group (UBS) $US28.15

The much anticipated UBS result was out overnight, and they provided a lot of detail around the integration of Credit Suisse and how the combined group will look in the coming years. The management call was a very long one, highlighting the huge and complicated task of merging two big and diverse global banks. The result itself was a slight miss to expectations as Q4 revenue of US$10.86bn missed consensus of $US11.29bn as both net interest income and fee & commission income trailed estimates, while costs were slightly higher than expected.

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06/02/2024 09:18

UBS Group (UBS) $US29.85

Swiss-based investment bank UBS has grown significantly after purchasing Credit Suisse during the Banking Crisis, with some very favourable terms that will prove to be an excellent strategic move, albeit a forced one, with the support of Swiss regulators. Ultimately, we believe UBS will grow the top line nicely as they merge the businesses, e.g. they’ve had some meaningful success in transferring over the CS clients onto the UBS platform while cutting out the underperforming areas.

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20/12/2023 09:14

UBS Group (UBS US) $US30.69

In the past 24 hours, there has been coverage of a Swedish Activist Investment Firm called Cevian Capital, which has taken a significant ~€1.3bn stake in UBS. The firm has been in the media pushing its investment thesis, which has supported the stock, with UBS rallying more than 5% overnight to hit a new all-time high. The components of their thesis are very similar to our own (original views here), although they’ve backed it with a touch more capital than MM!

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08/11/2023 09:18

UBS Group (UBS) US$24.89

While the headline numbers overnight showed a loss in Q3 of $785m, its first in nearly 6-years, the traction they are getting with the CS business is becoming more obvious, with $US22bn in net new money flowing from CS clients into the UBS wealth business in the quarter (v expectations of $US14bn)

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01/09/2023 09:06

UBS Group AG (UBS) $US26.71

Zurich based UBS rallied +5.6% overnight after reporting a $US29bn profit before tax in the 2nd quarter while they confirmed that Credit Suisse will be absorbed into the business by 2025 – a windfall in our opinion as they instigate 3,000 job cuts and more than $US10bn in cost savings. UBS saw new money inflows of $US16bn for the quarter while Credit Suisse outflows slowed to $US44.4bn while they are seeing a pick-up in client activity.

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22/08/2023 12:55

International Equities Portfolio – Amendments

We are adding two stocks to the International Equities Portfolio.

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16/08/2023 09:15

UBS Group (UBS) $US23.41

We covered UBS about a month ago here, concluding that we intend to buy the stock in the International Equities Portfolio. Our view here has not changed, and we still intend to add a position in UBS to this portfolio, timing remains the variable.

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05/07/2023 09:17

UBS Group AG (UBS US) $US20.47

We have had UBS on our Hitlist since they acquired Credit Suisse in an emergency bailout in March this year in a deal that was manufactured by the Swiss regulators and provided significant buffers to limit downside exposure for UBS. We think the acquisition provides scale and a better business mix for the group, and ultimately, UBS should be able to navigate the short-term complexities inherent in such a significant integration and come out the other side in good shape.

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22/03/2023 09:05

UBS Group (UBS) $US21.05

Ultimately, we think UBS will be the big winner out of the emergency bailout of Credit Suisse, and the market tends to agree with the stock adding ~12% overnight – not helpful when looking to establish a position! As has been widely documented, Swiss regulators manufactured a deal where UBS would buy Credit Suisse for around 10% of what it was trading at a year ago, while they also provided significant buffers to limit downside exposure. We often talk about risk/reward at Market Matters and this is a deal where UBS is well positioned to capture the upside in the Credit Suisse business while they negotiated CHF 25 billion (~$US30bn) of downside protection, leveraging the time-sensitive nature of the emergency transaction.

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