What Matters Today: Coal stocks are back in focus, again!

The ASX200 fell over 0.5% yesterday courtesy of some broad-based weakness, by the close over 70% of the main board closed lower with all 11 sectors retreating. The main mover on the day was AGL Energy (AGL) which tumbled -10.33% following a weak 1H result and downgrade to full-year guidance, a disappointing combination however overall it was a fairly quiet session that again saw the index traverse the psychological 7500 area.

Last year saw the ASX rally into April before experiencing a decent correction as bond yields soared to multi-month highs, at this stage, we feel 2023 might take longer to deliver the next meaningful swing as central banks feel likely to be unwavering towards the stance on inflation, at least for now.

Interestingly after discussing yesterday, 1000’s of people are losing their jobs, just as the RBA and Fed become increasingly hawkish, we saw Disney (DIS US) report their quarterly result after the US close yesterday, the stock was up (we own) after the release which included news that they were cutting 7,000 jobs – other major examples in 2023 have been Dell 6,500, PayPal 2,000, Zoom 1,300, IBM 3,900, Spotify 6,600, Alphabet (Google) 12,000, Microsoft 10,000, Amazon.com 18,000, Salesforce 7,000 and Goldman Sachs 3,200 – not a hard trend to identify!

Central banks keep quoting strong employment numbers as the main reason allowing them to keep hiking, MM believes they will need a fresh line in the sand sooner rather than later.

US indices slipped into Friday as bullish exhaustion was in the air after an early +1% rally reversed lower following recessionary signals from bonds, ongoing hawkish commentary from the Fed and an increase in bullishness from retail investors i.e. the latter is often used as a contrarian indicator. Most pundits are calling the Fed funds rate to top out around 5% but option traders are increasingly placing bets targeting 6%! The S&P500 finished the day -0.8% with the SPI Futures pointing to a -0.35% dip this morning.

The US 2-year yield is now exceeding the 10-years by the greatest amount since the 1980’s, such inversion very often precedes a recession.

scroll

OPINION
ACTION

Latest Reports

Afternoon report 23/02/2026 17:30

The Match Out: US Tariff hike shrugged off early, selling intensifies through the session

The ASX drifted lower as renewed uncertainty around US trade policy weighed on risk appetite, while gold extended its rally. Markets reacted to the US Supreme Court curbing President Trump’s tariff powers, prompting him to flag a temporary 15% blanket tariff on imports. The policy whiplash lifted safe havens, pushed the Aussie dollar towards US70.9c, and reignited selling pressure in technology.

Morning report 23/02/2026 09:25

Macro Monday: Don’t panic around Trumps 15% tariffs

On Friday, the US Supreme Court struck down most of Trump’s sweeping tariff policy under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, ruling in a 6-3 vote that the law does not authorise the president to impose tariffs. Markets reacted positively to the ruling, with stocks rising, including Amazon, up more than 2%, alongside gains in retailers Home Depot and Five Below, amid hopes of relief from tariff-driven cost pressures and sticky inflation.

Weekend report 21/02/2026 10:11

Weekend Q&A: Markets hang around all-time highs as Trump’s tariffs are thrown into limbo

It was another bruising but ultimately constructive week for Australian equities, with the ASX200 finishing higher and holding close to all-time highs despite wild stock-level volatility as reporting season met the ongoing AI debate head-on. The index was again pulled in different directions under the surface, with sharp rotations between sectors and increasingly binary outcomes on earnings day. Strong results were rewarded aggressively, while any hint of disappointment was met with little mercy.

Afternoon report 20/02/2026 17:06

The Match Out: ASX holds steady near highs, QBE lifts on bumper result

The ASX slipped modestly today, though still managed a solid +1.84% gain over the week. A bounce from the low of the day was sustained as buyers stepped in through the session, despite tensions in the Middle East. Index moves will continue to hinge on single stock results, though the magnitude of moves likely fades given the heavyweight stocks have now come and gone this reporting season.

Morning report 20/02/2026 09:22

ETF Friday: Looking at Energy ETFs as Oil breaks above $US70/barrel

The ASX 200 posted a new intra-day high on Thursday before slipping into the close, ending a strong day up 79 points, or 0.9%. As reporting season gathers pace, yesterday’s session delivered another round of outsized moves from companies both beating and missing expectations.

Afternoon report 19/02/2026 17:28

The Match Out: ASX hits new all-time high amid a flurry of earnings reports

The ASX rallied today, hitting a new all-time high at 9118 (+3pts above the Oct high) before tapering off into the afternoon. Still, its longest winning streak in more than a month, corresponding with one of the busiest days on the reporting calendar. More beats than misses, and solid overall, but still a few landmines to navigate.

Morning report 19/02/2026 09:46

What Matters Today: Delving into this month’s Bank of America Fund Managers Survey

The ASX 200 rallied for a 3rd consecutive day on Wednesday, closing back above the psychological 9000 level courtesy of a 4% rally by NAB following another solid earnings update from a “Big Four” bank.

Afternoon report 18/02/2026 17:12

The Match Out: ASX 200 breaks back through 9000, Tech & Property rally

The ASX pushed higher for a third straight session, with financials and technology doing the heavy lifting as reporting season continued to deliver outsized single-stock moves.

Morning report 18/02/2026 09:49

Portfolio Positioning: CBA last week, BHP yesterday, will things happen in threes?

The ASX200 surrendered much of its early gains on Tuesday but still ended the day up 0.2%. We almost felt like a one-stock index at times yesterday with BHP at one stage popping above $54, up more than 7%, for the first time. Even with the “Big Australian” closing back under $53, up +4.7% on the day, it still added 40-points to the ASX200, basically double its net gain on the day

Afternoon report 17/02/2026 17:15

The Match Out: BHP underpins ASX strength as reporting heats up

The ASX pushed higher in subdued trade, with BHP stealing the spotlight after a better-than-expected first-half result. Materials led the gains though it was all thanks the Big Australian’s performance, with weakness across the broader sector as commodities softened. Elsewhere, tech remained volatile, retailers were mixed and several reporting names were sharply repriced as the market continued its familiar reporting-season volatility.