What Matters Today: Coal stocks are back in focus, again!

The ASX200 fell over 0.5% yesterday courtesy of some broad-based weakness, by the close over 70% of the main board closed lower with all 11 sectors retreating. The main mover on the day was AGL Energy (AGL) which tumbled -10.33% following a weak 1H result and downgrade to full-year guidance, a disappointing combination however overall it was a fairly quiet session that again saw the index traverse the psychological 7500 area.

Last year saw the ASX rally into April before experiencing a decent correction as bond yields soared to multi-month highs, at this stage, we feel 2023 might take longer to deliver the next meaningful swing as central banks feel likely to be unwavering towards the stance on inflation, at least for now.

Interestingly after discussing yesterday, 1000’s of people are losing their jobs, just as the RBA and Fed become increasingly hawkish, we saw Disney (DIS US) report their quarterly result after the US close yesterday, the stock was up (we own) after the release which included news that they were cutting 7,000 jobs – other major examples in 2023 have been Dell 6,500, PayPal 2,000, Zoom 1,300, IBM 3,900, Spotify 6,600, Alphabet (Google) 12,000, Microsoft 10,000, Amazon.com 18,000, Salesforce 7,000 and Goldman Sachs 3,200 – not a hard trend to identify!

Central banks keep quoting strong employment numbers as the main reason allowing them to keep hiking, MM believes they will need a fresh line in the sand sooner rather than later.

US indices slipped into Friday as bullish exhaustion was in the air after an early +1% rally reversed lower following recessionary signals from bonds, ongoing hawkish commentary from the Fed and an increase in bullishness from retail investors i.e. the latter is often used as a contrarian indicator. Most pundits are calling the Fed funds rate to top out around 5% but option traders are increasingly placing bets targeting 6%! The S&P500 finished the day -0.8% with the SPI Futures pointing to a -0.35% dip this morning.

The US 2-year yield is now exceeding the 10-years by the greatest amount since the 1980’s, such inversion very often precedes a recession.

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Latest Reports

Afternoon report 27/03/2026 16:51

The Match Out: ASX snaps 3 week losing streak, though nerves remain

The ASX 200 snapped a three-week losing streak, though there was little conviction around the local market today, with the index slipping mildly lower by the close – although it did recover ~50 points from the morning low as US Futures traded up.

Morning report 27/03/2026 09:25

ETF Friday: Four International Equity Index ETFs to Watch as War Uncertainty Persists

The ASX 200 drifted on Thursday to close down 0.1%, not a verb we’ve used often in March, let's hope it's not the calm before the storm. Investors have embraced the initial efforts by the Trump Administration to engineer a deal with Iran to form a truce and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, but Iran isn’t yet playing ball as they continue to exchange missiles with Israel. The news crossing the wires couldn’t be more contradictory.

Afternoon report 26/03/2026 16:48

The Match Out: ASX treads water as sector rotation drives the action

The ASX edged lower after yesterday’s strong rally, with investors again taking cues from the evolving Iran conflict and the knock-on impact on energy markets. While the index finished little changed overall, the session was marked by steady intraday swings.

Morning report 26/03/2026 09:30

What Matters Today: Inflation eases—are rate-sensitive stocks back in play?

The ASX 200 rallied 155 points (+1.85%) on Wednesday, its strongest session in two months, driven by an improving tone in the Middle East conflict and a softer-than-expected CPI print. The Middle East remains the key driver, but better than feared economic data always helps.

Afternoon report 25/03/2026 16:58

The Match Out: ASX surges as soft CPI and ‘progress’ in the Middle East combine for the index’s best day 2 months

The ASX enjoyed a strong rebound today, bouncing sharply as investors latched onto two positives at once. Brent crude rolled over in Asian trade after the US President purportedly presented Iran with a 15-point plan to end the conflict, helping to calm nerves. At the same time, the February CPI print came in a touch softer than feared, giving the market some confidence that domestic inflation pressures are easing.

Morning report 25/03/2026 09:43

Portfolio Positioning: Looking through the noise from the Iran War

The ASX200 managed to close up +0.2% on Tuesday, but it wasn’t pretty with the index ending the session more than 100 points below its early morning high. The issue was the credibility of President Trump's claims that talks are underway to end the conflict with Iran, where reports of such talks were called “Fake News.” The attacks continue, although Trump has postponed strikes on Iran’s energy infrastructure, citing “productive conversations” with Tehran.

Afternoon report 24/03/2026 16:52

The Match Out: Materials drive early bounce, ASX fades through the session

The ASX finished modestly higher but well off its intraday highs after an early relief rally faded as the geopolitical backdrop in the Middle East remained fluid. The index surged more than +130pts at the open, briefly pushing 8500, before momentum cooled as US futures slipped gradually through the day.

Alerts 24/03/2026 16:13

Trade Alerts – International Equities Portfolio

We are making several changes to the International Equities Portfolio

Alerts 24/03/2026 10:13

Trade Alerts – Active Growth & Emerging Companies Portfolio

We are making several changes across portfolios

Morning report 24/03/2026 13:54

What Matters Today: Does MM see value in the iron ore miners as the bulk commodity pushes higher?

The ASX200 ended a volatile session more than 100 points off its early morning low, down only 0.7%. Selling was fairly brutal on open, as was expected, but investors steadily bought the dip through the day, with over 40% of the main board managing to close positive.