The RBA is expected to lift rates by another 0.25% on Tuesday, taking the cash rate to 4.35%, fully reversing the 0.75% of easing delivered through 2025. Credit markets are also pricing in at least one, and potentially two, additional hikes over the next 12 months, leaving mortgage holders facing the highest borrowing costs in over a decade. It's no surprise that rate-sensitive sectors are under pressure—real estate and retail are down ~10% and ~14% respectively in 2026, while the ASX 200 has managed to eke out a modest gain.
The ASX200 ended its 8-day losing streak on Friday with a solid +0.7% advance, although it promised more early on before the “Big Four Banks” reversed lower. It felt worse, but come the closing bell on Friday, the index was only down 0.6% for the week, although compared to the strong gains in the US, it was a clear disappointment. It was the big end of town that reined in the market last week, with the banks and heavyweight miners retreating. Next Wednesday, we see the RBA step up on interest rates, with credit markets pricing in a ~74% probability of a 0.25% hike, while on the following Tuesday, we will receive the Federal Budget- there’s no rest for the wicked in May!
The ASX finally found some buyers today, snapping its eight-day losing streak as risk appetite improved following record highs on Wall Street and a modest pullback in oil from Thursday’s spike. Materials did the heavy lifting, helped by gains in iron ore, while gold names also bounced after recent weakness.
The ASX200 continued its losing streak for an eighth day on Thursday, as it waved goodbye to April, a month that promised so much but ultimately only closed up +2.2%, not a bad net result, but the last few sessions made it feel far worse. The song remained the same yesterday, as oil prices ground ever higher and the realities of a prolonged energy shock hit home for Woolworths (ASX:WOW) and other exposed businesses. Confidence is rapidly being eroded that the US-Iran conflict will be resolved any time soon, as boards start pointing fingers at the impact of the war for disappointing trading updates. Yesterday, it was Woolworths -7.8%, while South32 (ASX:S32) -5.4% focused more on Trump's tariffs.
The ASX drifted lower again today, extending its losing streak to eight sessions as elevated oil prices and rising bond yields continued to weigh on sentiment. Brent crude pushed toward multi-year highs, keeping inflation concerns alive and lifting the Australian 10-year yield above 5% after a steady climb over the past two weeks.
The ASX200 posted its 7th consecutive day of losses on Wednesday, falling another 0.3% despite a softer-than-feared inflation print. The CPI came in at 4.6% in the year to March, lower than expected but spiking sharply from February, hitting levels not seen since 2023. Short-dated local bonds rallied on the release (yields lower), but the move did little to shift the broader hawkish outlook for rates into 2026. Credit markets continue to price in a ~70% probability of a third RBA hike next week.
The ASX extended its losing streak today as investors digested Australia’s March inflation print, which came in slightly below expectations but still high enough to keep the prospect of another RBA rate hike firmly on the table next week. Bond yields eased following the data, though sentiment remained fragile with markets now pricing roughly a ~75% chance of a move up in May.
The ASX 200 fell a further 0.6% on Tuesday, marking its longest losing streak in four years. It was another ugly day for Australia's share market, notching its sixth-straight session of losses as 9 out of the 11 main sectors retreated. On the day, it was the miners that did the most damage, contributing over 35% of the day's decline as a bounce in the $US dollar dragged down commodities, except the oil price, which continues to push higher, notching its seventh daily advance, almost a perfect mirror image of the ASX.
The ASX had another tough session today with selling fairly broad-based, leaving the market testing its 200-day moving average as investors remain cautious around the macro backdrop.
The heavyweight US indices powered to fresh all-time highs on Friday night. However, the weekend delivered another twist to the Iran saga with US President Trump abruptly cancelling the planned envoy trip to Pakistan for peace talks, citing unnecessary costs and a disappointing offer from Tehran.
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