Macro Monday: Have stocks bottomed as the S&P500 posts its best week in 18-months?

Over recent weeks MM have repeatedly remarked about how bearish investors both feel and are positioned with a number of measures sitting at decade extremes, not a scenario that usually lasts particularly long before we experience a squeeze of the complacent crowded position. After 7 consecutive weeks of falls, the S&P500 rallied +6.6% last week with sellers appearing to exhaust themselves as we saw hints of some Fed flexibility over the coming months. The data in our opinion while mixed definitely challenged many analysts’ views that we are on an inevitable path of higher rates followed by a subsequent recession. MM saw a few pockets of clear optimism last week:

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Latest Reports

Afternoon report 16/12/2025 16:50

The Match Out: ASX slips, more pain for Tech

The ASX slipped into negative territory through the session as early strength in the banks was offset by sharp weakness across technology and energy stocks. Investors remained cautious ahead of delayed US labour market data for October & November due tonight, which could shape expectations for further Federal Reserve rate cuts into 2026.

Morning report 16/12/2025 09:28

What Matters Today: Four “Dogs” of 2025 that are gaining traction

The ASX 200 opened weaker on Monday and failed to bounce, ultimately closing down -0.7%, with over 60% of the main board closing lower on the day. It was a rare day for FY26, with the miners leading the market to its worst session in three weeks, with BHP’s 2.9% decline contributing a whopping 35% of the day's decline.

Afternoon report 15/12/2025 16:44

The Match Out: Commodities cool, ASX closes lower in volatile session

The ASX traded lower on Monday, giving back 70% of Fridays strong rally. Selling was broad based, with 10 of 11 sectors in the red with a sharp commodity selloff headlining the weakness as copper, iron ore and lithium stocks got whacked. Market’s now look ahead to Australia’s mid-year budget update and central bank meetings in the UK, Europe and Japan.

Morning report 15/12/2025 09:38

Macro Monday: The Tech Sector may surprise many this week

Over the past three months, Australian financial markets have had to adjust to a sudden reversal in expectations for the RBA cash rate, shifting from the anticipation of cuts to projected hikes in 2026. A complete 180, which has caused significant volatility at the stock and sector levels as investors have had to alter their positioning.

Weekend report 13/12/2025 09:41

Weekend Q&A: Equities forge higher after the Fed & RBA cast their votes

The ASX 200 surged +1.2% on Friday, taking the local bourse to fresh 4-week highs as the miners continued to support the market. The index ended the week up +0.7% but it felt like more after the strong rally into the weekend saw the local bourse enjoy its best session in five weeks. The tech rotation story continues, but fortunately for the ASX, the influential miners have been major beneficiaries as commodity prices charge higher, led this week by silver and copper.

Afternoon report 12/12/2025 16:45

The Match Out: ASX up 1.2%, Best session in months, Commodities lead

The ASX had a great session to end the week, its strongest session in three weeks as a sharp rally in commodities – led by gold and copper, and support from the financials – combined with renewed optimism around US monetary easing, booking a third straight weekly gain, the longest run since August. Despite the equity strength, rate expectations remain in flux, with Citi now forecasting Australian rate hikes in February and May.

Morning report 12/12/2025 09:33

ETF Friday: Looking at 4 ASX ETFs to play the current sector rotation

The ASX 200 surrendered most of its early Fed-fuelled gains on Thursday, closing up only 0.2%. The miners led Australia's market higher, helping the bourse snap a three-session losing streak after a US interest rate cut sparked a rally in raw materials. Still, with winners and losers evenly matched, it wasn’t a broad-based affair.

Afternoon report 11/12/2025 16:56

The Match Out: ASX up (just), finishes well off highs, Tech weighs again

The ASX was mildly higher by the close, although it gave back most of the early Fed inspired bump to finish ~65pts below the morning peak. Most support came from the miners after the Federal Reserve increased their growth forecast and cut rates, though weakness across tech persisted after Oracle sank ~10% in after-hours trade, with a soft cloud result raising questions about the durability of AI-linked spending - Nasdaq futures slid 1.1% during our time zone.

Alerts 11/12/2025 16:13