27/11/2023 08:56

Currencies

The $US continued its descent last week without the tailwind of falling bond yields, an encouraging sign for the bears like MM. There is no change; if we are correct, the Greenback has formed a significant swing high and will eventually test/break the important psychological 100 area. Our preference is the next 10% move by the $US is down, but at this stage, it does remain in the middle of the last 12-months trading range.

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30/10/2023 08:59

Currencies

The $US ended a quiet week slightly higher as it remains the currency of choice during these uncertain geopolitical times. The $US has been consolidating its bounce from the psychological 100 area since late September, and what comes next in the short term, unfortunately, feels like guesswork at this stage.

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23/10/2023 08:47

Currencies

The $US edged lower last week in sync with 2-year yields, we remain bearish toward the $US, but after bouncing as we expected, if/when it turns lower is harder to forecast at this stage of the cycle.

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09/10/2023 09:04

Currencies

The Euro has corrected back to our targeted 1.05 region, and our preferred scenario is it will regain the strength it exhibited through most of 2023, a great read-through for equities. This morning’s minor -0.25% dip following the events in the Middle East illustrates the likely muted early reaction across financial markets and the Euros underlying strength following the pullback over the last four months.

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18/09/2023 09:06

Currencies

The $US edged towards its 2023 high last week, and a mildly hawkish FOMC this week will likely see a test of 106. Similarly to US bond yields, it’s hard to comprehend any meaningful downside until US inflation drops back to 2% - in August, the CPI rose to 3.7% with gasoline prices the most attributable factor in the increase.

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11/09/2023 08:59

Currencies

The $US ended last week testing 105 resistance area following rising fears of Fed rate hikes courtesy of ongoing economic solid data. We believe the “easy money” for the contrarian investor is behind us with what comes next likely to be very data-dependent.

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21/08/2023 09:18

Currencies

The $US posted fresh 9 week highs last week as the Feds hawkish rhetoric made the Greenback and its respective bond market ever more attractive as yields ground higher. However as markets position themselves for higher yields at this week’s bond auctions we believe much of the news is already built into the $US and short term risk/reward has swung back in favour of the bears.

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14/08/2023 09:01

Currencies

The $US ended on its highs on Friday after another solid US Jobs Report pointed to higher interest rates will remain for longer than many hoped, this is weighing on the likes of gold which is now over $US150/oz below its May high i.e. with short term US bonds yielding almost 5% gold needs to advance close to $US100/oz from current levels to simply match the returns from the safety of fixed interest.

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31/07/2023 09:07

Currencies

The $US is not surprisingly moving in tandem with bond yields, if/when these yields follow the MM roadmap lower the likelihood is that the $US will follow suit which should prove very supportive of commodities and in particular precious metals.

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17/07/2023 09:10

Currencies

The Euro was one of the main beneficiaries of the drop by the $US, it tested its 2022 high with further gains looking like just a matter of time. Similar to our view toward the Pound which was discussed last week we are bullish toward the Euro targeting a test of the 1.20-1.25 area, a move which again coincides with our outlook on bond yields.

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