31/03/2025 09:41

The $US (Greenback)

The dollar, for many years, has been a hiding place during market selloffs, but it hasn’t rallied this time as investors rushed for safety. The Trump effect has seen the $US no longer act like a haven, and just two months into his second term, his escalating tariffs and bid to roll back decades of globalisation are shaking confidence in the US currency

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24/03/2025 09:41

The $US (Greenback)

The Dollar Index consolidated its recent losses last week, offering little hope for an imminent recovery. With the likes of Europe and China becoming investors' vehicles of choice, it may take time to turn this particular oil tanker around.

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11/11/2024 09:27

Currencies

The US dollar enjoyed a strong “Trump bump” after the election result became apparent, taking the index back to its average of the last 2-years. Second-guessing what comes next into Christmas is hard, leaving us sitting on the proverbial fence over the coming months.

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17/06/2024 08:49

Currencies

The Greenback bounced last week as the Fed pushed their timing of interest rate cuts further down the road, although ironically, the softer inflation data did support a more dovish approach to rates. However, with the Eurozone becoming increasingly fixated on the French elections, the $US did enjoy a small “safety bid”, which was enough to see the currency rally back above the 105 level as it continues to rotate in the same range as the last 18 months.

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11/06/2024 08:53

Currencies

The Greenback bounced last week as Fed rate cuts were put on ice, but the move hardly registered on the chart as the 105 holds for the $US Index, which measures the US currency against a basket of its major trading partners. Again, it has already been 18 months of trading in the current area, and it's akin to a game of 2-up forecasting when it will push towards 100 or 110.

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03/06/2024 09:00

Currencies

The Greenback experienced a very quiet week, considering the CPI was released on Friday. With economic releases showing few surprises in either direction, both bonds and the $US trod water for a second week. Ultimately, we are looking for the $US to retest and eventually break its 2023 low, around the 100 level. However, again, after trading sideways for over 12 months, it's guesswork as to when the $US will go in search of a new level of equilibrium.

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27/05/2024 08:51

Currencies

The Greenback experienced a quiet week even after the hawkish Fed Minutes. The $US has been comfortable trading around 105 for the last 18 months, and it's clearly going to need more than a few comments from Jerome Powell et al. to change this equilibrium. Until the market becomes convinced that the battle against inflation has been won and interest rates can move sustainably lower, the $US is likely to remain in its current trading range.

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20/05/2024 09:14

Currencies

The Greenback fell away last week after the CPI inflation numbers led to credit markets pricing in two or three rate cuts in the next nine months. This renewed dovish stance, after April's hiccup, is bearish towards the $US as monies parked in the US will start to deliver a lower yield, lessening the demand for dollars.

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13/05/2024 09:19

Currencies

The Greenback remained around 105 last week. We expect much of the same ahead of Wednesday's CPI inflation print. A number much below 3.4% will be perceived to open the door for Fed cuts, which will push down the US dollar. The US dollar has remained in the same 100-107 trading range for the last 18 months, and although we’re net bearish, it will need to see a meaningful decline in inflation before we’re likely to retest last year's 100 swing low.

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06/05/2024 09:21

Currencies

The Greenback pulled back to the 105 area last week, led by a small pullback in bond yields following the relatively dovish Fed rhetoric and employment data. The US dollar has remained in the same 100-107 trading range for the last 18-months, and although we’re net bearish, it needs a catalyst before seeking a new level of equilibrium.

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