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Overvalued
Morningstar Quantitative Rating as of 28 OCT 2026.
Quantitative Equity Rating Methodology – view here
Five-star price 23.79 Fair value 31.32 One-star price 41.25
Morningstar Quantitative Rating as of 28 OCT 2026.
Morningstar Quantitative Rating as of 28 OCT 2026. The slider runs from the five-star price (23.79) to the one-star price (41.25).
| Ratios |
|---|
| Currency (Price/reporting): USD/USD |
| Exchange Rate: 1.0000 |
| Price - closing or last bid | 39.69 |
| Price - 12 month high | 54.66 |
| Price - 12 month low | 31.31 |
| Pricing date | 27 OCT 2026 |
| Volume - avg. trading volume for the last ten days | 6.29 |
| Market capitalization | 65,325.15 |
| 12 Month High price date | 29 JAN 2026 |
| 12 Month Low price date | 28 OCT 2025 |
| Volume - avg. trading volume for the last 3 months | 9.10 |
| Price - 1 Day % Change | 1.10% |
| Price - 13 week price percent change | 8.18% |
| Price - 26 week price percent change | 1.33% |
| Price - 5 Day % Change | -2.63% |
| Price - 52 week price percent change | 24.65% |
| Price - YTD price percent change | -10.28% |
| Price % Change Month To Date | -3.41% |
| EPS excluding extraordinary items - most recent fiscal year | 2.930 |
| EPS excluding extraordinary items - trailing 12 month | 3.870 |
| EPS Normalized - most recent fiscal year | 2.425 |
| Revenue/share - most recent fiscal year | 9.933 |
| Revenue/share - trailing 12 month | 12.280 |
| Book value per share - most recent fiscal year | 15.852 |
| Book value per share - most recent quarter | 16.590 |
| Book value (tangible) per share - most recent fiscal year | 19.587 |
| Book value (tangible) per share - most recent quarter | 20.456 |
| Cash per share - most recent fiscal year | 4.003 |
| Cash per share - most recent quarter | 3.601 |
| Cash Flow per share - most recent fiscal year | 4.518 |
| Cash Flow per share - trailing 12 month | 5.872 |
| Dividend per share - most recent fiscal year | — |
| Dividends per share - trailing 12 month | 0.945 |
| EBITD per share - trailing 12 month | 8.690 |
| EPS Basic excluding extraordinary items - most recent fiscal year | 2.930 |
| EPS Basic excluding extraordinary items - trailing 12 month | 3.870 |
| EPS including extraordinary items - most recent fiscal year | 2.930 |
| EPS including extraordinary items - trailing 12 month | 3.870 |
| Free Cash Flow per share - trailing 12 month | 3.364 |
| P/E excluding extraordinary items, most recent fiscal year | 10.26 |
| P/E Normalized, most recent fiscal year | 13.64 |
| Price to sales - most recent fiscal year | 3.23 |
| Price to Tangible Book - most fiscal year | 2.71 |
| Price to Free Cash Flow per Share - most recent fiscal year | 11.80 |
| Price to Cash Flow per share - trailing 12 month | 6.76 |
| Price to Book - most recent fiscal year | 2.39 |
| P/E excluding extraordinary items high, trailing 12 months | 25.47 |
| P/E excluding extraordinary items low, trailing 12 months | 9.65 |
| Net Debt, LFI | -1,245.00 |
| Net Debt, LFY | -1,495.00 |
| Dividend Yield - 5 Year Average | 2.17% |
| Dividend Yield - indicated annual dividend divided by closing price | 2.41% |
| Current Dividend Yield - Common Stock Primary Issue, LTM | 2.38% |
| Free Cash Flow - most recent fiscal year | 3,891.00 |
| LT debt/equity - most recent fiscal year | 14.21% |
| Payout ratio - most recent fiscal year | — |
| Total debt/total equity - most recent fiscal year | 14.51% |
| LT debt/equity - most recent quarter | 12.66% |
| Total debt/total equity - most recent quarter | 12.71% |
| Free Cash Flow - trailing 12 month | 5,658.00 |
| Payout ratio - trailing 12 month | 15.37% |
| Revenue - most recent fiscal year | 16,956.00 |
| Revenue - trailing 12 month | 20,655.00 |
| EBITD - most recent fiscal year | 11,023.00 |
| EBITD - trailing 12 month | 14,616.00 |
| Earnings before taxes - most recent fiscal year | 8,805.00 |
| Earnings before taxes - trailing 12 month | 12,240.00 |
| Net Income available to common - most recent fiscal year | 4,993.00 |
| Net Income available to common - trailing 12 months | 6,527.00 |
| Earnings before taxes Normalized - most recent fiscal year | 7,111.00 |
| Net Income Available to Common, Normalized - most recent fiscal year | 4,139.00 |
| Earnings per Share, Normalized, Excluding Extraordinary Items, Avg. Diluted Shares Outstanding, TTM | 2.91 |
| Net Profit Margin % - 1st historical fiscal year | 42.19% |
| Net Profit Margin % - trailing 12 month | 45.95% |
| Operating margin - 1st historical fiscal year | 47.21% |
| Operating margin - trailing 12 month | 52.14% |
| Pretax margin - trailing 12 month | 59.26% |
| Pretax margin - 1st historical fiscal year | 51.93% |
| Operating Margin - 5 year average | 33.58% |
| Pretax Margin - 5 year average | 33.24% |
| Free Operating Cash Flow/Revenue, 5 Year Average | 14.39% |
| Free Operating Cash Flow/Revenue, TTM | 27.39% |
| Net Profit Margin - 5 year average | 23.98% |
| Return on average assets - most recent fiscal year | 14.72% |
| Return on average assets - trailing 12 month | 18.82% |
| Return on average equity - most recent fiscal year | 28.55% |
| Return on average equity - trailing 12 month | 36.17% |
| Return on average assets - 5 year average | 7.16% |
| Return on average equity - 5 year average | 13.98% |
| Net Income/employee - most recent fiscal year | 264,962.96 |
| Revenue/employee - most recent fiscal year | 628,000.00 |
| Revenue growth rate, 5 year | 6.13% |
| EPS growth rate, 5 year | 17.47% |
| Growth rate% - dividend, 3 year | -6.87% |
| Revenue/share (5 yr growth) | 7.00% |
| Growth rate% - Revenue, 3 year | 15.47% |
| Growth rate% - EPS, 3 year | 130.26% |
| Book value per share growth rate, 5 year | 3.85% |
| Capital Spending growth rate, 5 year | 13.22% |
| Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation & Amortization, 5 Year CAGR | 8.14% |
Financial forecast (CAD, millions except per share)
| Actuals | Estimates | |||||||
| 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | ||||
| Estimate breakdown | ||||||||
Financials (USD, millions)
| Period end: | DEC 21 | DEC 22 | DEC 23 | DEC 24 | DEC 25 |
| Fiscal year: | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
| Period length: | 12 months | 12 months | 12 months | 12 months | 12 months |
Announcements
Announcements are available for ASX-listed companies only.
Barrick provided a quarterly update on Monday night in the US and produced a reasonable second quarter operationally, with stronger-than-expected gold production and costs helping earnings (EBITDA) beat expectations. However, the result was overshadowed by its agreement with Newmont over Nevada Gold Mines, with some obvious disappointment around the implied valuation of Barrick’s highly regarded Fourmile project.
Barrick delivered a strong March quarter result, with earnings ahead of expectations, gold sales better than forecast, costs materially lower while the Board authorised a US$3bn share buyback. Shares rallied 9.2%.
B US shares were initially higher after it reported 4th quarter earnings ahead of estimates, though broader weakness in the gold space overshadowed the strong operational performance.
Gold has enjoyed a powerful run in recent months, fuelled by escalating geopolitical risks, expectations of lower interest rates, and persistent central bank demand as many countries diversify holdings away from the $US.
Toronto-based Barrick Gold reported higher-than-expected earnings overnight, with production at the top end of the guidance at a time of record prices.
After a challenging year operationally for Barrick they’ve finally produced a strong quarter, and in doing so, they’ve achieved their FY24 guidance, which looked highly unlikely.
Canadian miner GOLD has underperformed NEM this year, which is frustrating, but it remains well-placed as we head towards 2025. In August, GOLD disappointed the market when they reported lower than expected which had a negative impact on costs - total preliminary output of 940,000 ounces of gold in the three months ended March 31, was below the 984,000 ounces expected, plus Barrick expects all-in-sustaining costs (AISC) to be about 7-9% higher than the previous quarter. We are considering whether NEM offers better risk/reward moving forward.
Barrick is our stock of choice for overseas exposure to precious metals. It delivered in 2024, bouncing well over 50% from its early 2024 low—a very similar pattern to EVN. Like EVN, Barrick also has a growing runway for Copper output, while an AISC of $US1,474 looks good, with prices above $US2,600. We like the company and its prospects, but the question is whether our exposure is too large at this stage of the cycle.
US gold heavyweights Barrick and Newmont stock moves bear little resemblance to the price of precious metals over the last few years. The rally by both heavyweight producers feels almost begrudging in nature, although Barrick has bounced around 50% from its February low.
Newmont (NEM) is the world’s largest producer of Gold having bought Newcrest in 2022, however Barrick sits comfortably in No 2 spot, and on Monday they guided to FY24 gold output of 3.9-4.3m ounces at an all-in-sustaining cost base of $US1320 to $US1420. With Gold prices at US$2464 this morning, the metrics of their diverse operations really stack up.
MM remains long and cautiously bullish Barrick Mining
We are long & bullish towards Barrick $US47.00
MM is adding to B US in the International Equities Portfolio, increasing to a 4% portfolio weight around $US37
MM is neutral on Barrick around $US44 in the short term
MM is trimming B US in the International Equities Portfolio, targeting a 3% weighting around $US48.70
MM is looking to sell Barrick (B US)
MM is now neutral on B US
MM is bullish long and bullish GOLD
MM is long & bullish GOLD US
MM is cautiously bullish Barrick
Based in Toronto, Barrick is one of the world's largest gold miners. In 2025, the firm sold about 3.3 million attributable ounces of gold and about 220,000 metric tons of copper. At end-2025, Barrick had about two decades of gold reserves along with significant copper reserves. After buying Randgold in 2019 and combining its Nevada mines in a joint venture with competitor Newmont later that year, it operates mines in the Americas, Africa, the Middle East, and Asia. The company also has growing copper exposure, driven by the expansion of its Lumwana mine in Zambia and the development of its Reko Diq copper and gold project in Pakistan. It intends to undertake an IPO of its joint venture stakes in Nevada Gold Mines and Pueblo Viejo along with its Fourmile deposit later in 2026.
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