22/02/2024 09:18

How should we be positioned if the $A rallies through 2024

UBS called the $A back to 72c as one of its best trades of 2024, a meaningful ~10% gain from current levels – great news for overseas holidays if they’re on point. Their fundamental logic is simple and hard to fault, although translating it into a 10% gain for the little “Aussie Battler”  feels like a big call this morning.

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22/01/2024 09:04

Currencies

The $US continues to move in tandem with bond yields hence, if we are correct in the 1Q, it’s a buy around 100 and sell nearer to 105. We remain ultimately bearish about the $US, but it has already fallen over 13% from its 2022 high, and a few months of consolidation is our preferred scenario, which implies no negative surprises for equities in the coming months.

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07/09/2023 09:08

Three $US earners that should benefit from the weak Aussie

We have discussed the Aussie a number of time over recent weeks as it continues to struggle to find any meaningful buying whatever crosses the newswires. The local currency is being weighed down by a US economy that remains stronger than our own plus its less dependent on the uncertain outlook for China.

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12/12/2022 09:12

Australian Dollar

The $A has bounced around 10% from its October low, coinciding with a pullback in bond yields and the $US. We can see a test of 70c over the coming weeks but with so much macro news due to cross the newswires this week, it is a bit of a coin toss over the next few days.

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28/11/2022 09:13

The Australian $A

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14/11/2022 09:14

The AUDUSD

The Aussie rallied last week supported by a weak $US and surging commodity prices, we need a clear break of 70c to get very bullish but for now, the path of least resistance feels like it’s on the upside.

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07/11/2022 09:16

Currencies

The Australian Dollar rallied strongly on Friday as would be expected for a commodities-based currency. If we are correct and last week’s advance in the like of copper is just the beginning then the $A should be set to bounce back towards 70c into Christmas.

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31/10/2022 09:11

AUD USD FX

The Australian Dollar has really struggled over the last 6-months as economists become increasingly certain that a recession is looming on the horizon i.e. the $A is largely regarded as a commodity currency hence it needs China in particular, and the rest of the world, to enjoy some strong economic growth to regain its mojo. Almost every newsflash that China is locking down another city in an attempt to achieve its Covid zero policy sends the Aussie even lower.

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17/10/2022 09:15

Currencies

The $US continues to march higher in tandem with US bond yields and the Aussie Dollar has become one of the major casualties as a recession in 2023/24 looks increasingly likely, not ideal for the $A which is largely regarded as a growth currency, unfortunately at this stage, it feels like a race to the bottom for the $A, Euro and Yen!

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07/09/2022 09:34

Global Macro ETF Portfolio

The MM Global Macro ETF Portfolio added +0.67% last week enjoying strong gains by the Short Yen ETF (YCS US) +8.8% and Sprott Physical Uranium Trust (U-U CN) +4.2% while our Aussie Dollar position dragged the chain (AUDS) -3.5%.

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