26/05/2025 09:26

Australian Dollar $ (AUDUSD)

The Australian Dollar has enjoyed a bid tone in recent months, helped in the most part by the weak US dollar. With China's economy and commodity prices slowly improving, tailwinds are forming for the $A, although a dovish RBA will temper gains in the short term.

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23/05/2025 09:39

BetaShares Strong Australian Dollar ETF (AUDS) $5.70

The “strong” AUDS ETF, traded on the ASX, affords greater leverage to the $A against the $US. If we are bullish the $A, bearish the $US, this is an ETF to consider.

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03/02/2025 09:23

The Australian Dollar (AUDUSD)

The “Aussie” has punched down toward its multi-year lows this morning following the tariff announcements and obvious ramifications that could follow, especially with regard to China.

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23/09/2024 08:59

Trade of the Week

The interest rate differential between the Australian and US Dollar looks set to reverse over the next 12-months, i.e., the US currently has higher interest rates, but by this time next year, we believe Australia will have a more restrictive monetary policy.

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26/07/2024 09:21

AUDJPY FX

The Aussie-Yen has plunged over 10%, a huge move in FX land, in just three weeks as the “Carry Trade” has been unwound in earnest. The market had been getting ahead of itself on the upside, and the crowded nature of the positioning has created almost panic selling in the last fortnight. The BOJ has cleaned up, having previously spent billions buying Yen to stem its currency's recent declines.

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29/04/2024 08:58

Currencies

The Greenback consolidated around its 2024 high, with all eyes on Jerome Powell later this week. If he suggests rates might not fall in 2024, a test by the $US of its 2023 high could easily unfold. Locally, we’ve witnessed markets lose confidence that rates will be cut in 2024, whereas the US has only seen hopes fade from 3 cuts to 1 or 2. A shift to zero would likely lift volatility across financial markets into the EOFY.

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22/02/2024 09:18

How should we be positioned if the $A rallies through 2024

UBS called the $A back to 72c as one of its best trades of 2024, a meaningful ~10% gain from current levels – great news for overseas holidays if they’re on point. Their fundamental logic is simple and hard to fault, although translating it into a 10% gain for the little “Aussie Battler”  feels like a big call this morning.

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22/01/2024 09:04

Currencies

The $US continues to move in tandem with bond yields hence, if we are correct in the 1Q, it’s a buy around 100 and sell nearer to 105. We remain ultimately bearish about the $US, but it has already fallen over 13% from its 2022 high, and a few months of consolidation is our preferred scenario, which implies no negative surprises for equities in the coming months.

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07/09/2023 09:08

Three $US earners that should benefit from the weak Aussie

We have discussed the Aussie a number of time over recent weeks as it continues to struggle to find any meaningful buying whatever crosses the newswires. The local currency is being weighed down by a US economy that remains stronger than our own plus its less dependent on the uncertain outlook for China.

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12/12/2022 09:12

Australian Dollar

The $A has bounced around 10% from its October low, coinciding with a pullback in bond yields and the $US. We can see a test of 70c over the coming weeks but with so much macro news due to cross the newswires this week, it is a bit of a coin toss over the next few days.

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