Reaffirmed FY26 production guidance despite a softer March-quarter operational update, with weather and maintenance disruptions weighing on output but not enough to shift the broader outlook.
- FY26 copper production: 102kt -8% y/y
- FY26 zinc production: 94kt +11% y/y
- FY26 silver production: 5.0 Moz -5% y/y
- FY26 capex: $225m +17% y/y
- Quarterly capex: $54m +23% y/y
Group copper equivalent production came in below expectations during the quarter, impacted by heavy rainfall and unplanned maintenance at MATSA, alongside delays transitioning to higher-grade ore at Motheo. Despite the weaker quarter, Sandfire maintained full-year guidance and expects operating unit costs to remain broadly aligned with prior forecasts.
Management also flagged growing uncertainty across global supply chains given the Middle East conflict, though operations in Spain and Botswana remain well supplied with fuel.
While the quarter was operationally softer, the underlying growth story remains intact. With copper demand continuing to build around electrification and energy transition themes, we remain constructive on SFR, with the Motheo ramp-up and stable MATSA operations underpinning the medium-term outlook for the stock.
MM remains long and bullish SFR
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