What Matters Today: Coal stocks are back in focus, again!

The ASX200 fell over 0.5% yesterday courtesy of some broad-based weakness, by the close over 70% of the main board closed lower with all 11 sectors retreating. The main mover on the day was AGL Energy (AGL) which tumbled -10.33% following a weak 1H result and downgrade to full-year guidance, a disappointing combination however overall it was a fairly quiet session that again saw the index traverse the psychological 7500 area.

Last year saw the ASX rally into April before experiencing a decent correction as bond yields soared to multi-month highs, at this stage, we feel 2023 might take longer to deliver the next meaningful swing as central banks feel likely to be unwavering towards the stance on inflation, at least for now.

Interestingly after discussing yesterday, 1000’s of people are losing their jobs, just as the RBA and Fed become increasingly hawkish, we saw Disney (DIS US) report their quarterly result after the US close yesterday, the stock was up (we own) after the release which included news that they were cutting 7,000 jobs – other major examples in 2023 have been Dell 6,500, PayPal 2,000, Zoom 1,300, IBM 3,900, Spotify 6,600, Alphabet (Google) 12,000, Microsoft 10,000, Amazon.com 18,000, Salesforce 7,000 and Goldman Sachs 3,200 – not a hard trend to identify!

Central banks keep quoting strong employment numbers as the main reason allowing them to keep hiking, MM believes they will need a fresh line in the sand sooner rather than later.

US indices slipped into Friday as bullish exhaustion was in the air after an early +1% rally reversed lower following recessionary signals from bonds, ongoing hawkish commentary from the Fed and an increase in bullishness from retail investors i.e. the latter is often used as a contrarian indicator. Most pundits are calling the Fed funds rate to top out around 5% but option traders are increasingly placing bets targeting 6%! The S&P500 finished the day -0.8% with the SPI Futures pointing to a -0.35% dip this morning.

The US 2-year yield is now exceeding the 10-years by the greatest amount since the 1980’s, such inversion very often precedes a recession.

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Latest Reports

Afternoon report 28/08/2025 18:59

The Match Out: ASX edges up as the ‘Big Four’ come to the rescue again

The ASX 200 ended the day up though it would have been a different story if it weren’t for strength in the banks with ‘The Big Four’ providing ~35pts of index gain with limited help from other sectors.

Morning report 28/08/2025 09:27

What Matters Today: Three switches which are worth investigating

The ASX200 finished up +0.3% on Wednesday after an initial dip into lunchtime, following hotter-than-expected inflation data, which cooled expectations for a September rate cut. The big miners drove the market along with selected earnings standouts, even as the chances of a rate cut next month fell towards 20%.

Afternoon report 27/08/2025 18:17

The Match Out: ASX moves up after juggling inflation data & results, WOW slumps

The ASX moved higher today as strength in Materials and strong results from Tabcorp and Siteminder more than offset heavy losses in Woolworths with its worst single session on record after revealing a profit slump in their full-year result.

Income Report: Asset allocation framework when targeting income

Morning report 28/08/2025 09:31

Portfolio Positioning: All eyes switch to Nvidia tomorrow morning

The ASX200 retreated 0.4% on Tuesday, struggling from the get-go after Wall Street’s weakness on Monday night. Almost 60% of the market retreated, with losses concentrated in the materials and utilities sectors, although both were only down around 1%.

Afternoon report 26/08/2025 17:34

The Match Out: ASX loses steam as reporting starts to wind down

The ASX lost some steam today and as we penned this morning, we believe the market is starting to feel tired after its 25% advance from the April lows.

Morning report 26/08/2025 13:00

What Matters Today: Things can get confusing in the Resources Sector

The ASX200 closed up just +0.1% on Monday, after the index surrendered substantial early gains and failed to close above the psychological 9000 level. Selling was most noticeable in the banks, with the financial sector ending the day down 1.2% with 6 of the main boards' 11 main sectors closing lower.

Afternoon report 25/08/2025 17:01

The Match Out: ASX jumps then dumps as profit takers pile in

The ASX opened with a bang this morning hitting a high of 9054 before sellers got engaged, pushing the index down ~70pts from the early high. While the structure of the market still remains clearly bullish, we stick with our more neutral bias on stocks around all-time highs, and today's selling into strength, supports that view.

Morning report 25/08/2025 09:28

Macro Monday: Jerome Powell set to propel the ASX to new highs

Fed Chair Jerome Powell used his much-anticipated speech from Jackson Hole on Friday to signal that the US central bank is on track for an interest-rate cut in September, after holding its benchmark steady in the first eight months of the year. The market reaction was instantaneous, with Powell unleashing the biggest cross-market surge since April by striking a surprisingly dovish tone during his speech. The S&P 500 Index rebounded from a five-day slide, rising +1.5%; meanwhile, the rate/economically-sensitive Russell 2000 small-cap index surged almost 4%.

Weekend report 23/08/2025 08:53

Weekend Q&A: The Bull ASX200 cracks 9000 as volatility erupts on the stock level

The ASX200 fell away on Friday to close down 0.6%, with the heavyweight miners and banks largely reversing early gains to close lower. The index still managed to end the week up +0.3%, but it failed to hold above the psychological 9000 level, with healthcare, and especially CSL, weighing heavily. The week, as expected, was dominated by the reporting season, with “misses” treated a touch more severely than beats were embraced. However, that’s no major surprise with the index posting all-time highs as often as it rains in Sydney!

Afternoon report 22/08/2025 16:52

The Match Out: Reporting knocks stocks from all-time highs

The market tapered off as the day progressed with the ASX giving back half of yesterday's strong move – as reporting season roles on. More misses than hits today with some big moves playing out as a consequence.