The ASX200 has commenced a historically strong few weeks less than 2% below its all-time high with a feeling of inevitability in the air – MM has been targeting the 7700-7800 area for months and at this stage, we feel on point. However, there is usually a sting in this tail for equities because both locally and overseas May / June are usually the worst seasonal combined months for stocks e.g. the Average return for the ASX200 over the last 20-year during these 2-months is -1.0% and we should remember that during most of this time stocks have been enjoying a strong bull market hence the regularly quoted phrase “sell in May & go away”.
Yesterday we waved goodbye to a volatile Q1 which saw the ASX200 initially drop -9.2% in January before slowly but surely recovering all of the losses before managing to end the quarter slightly higher. The highlight of the last 3-months would probably go to the explosive rise in bond yields but there were a few rivals for the mantle including surging commodity prices courtesy of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and supply chain issues which stubbornly aren’t going away, the net result was a market of 2 halves, excuse the cliché, with value stocks like banks and resources rallying at the expense of growth names such as tech and healthcare.
Wednesday saw the ASX200 continue its march towards new all-time highs finally closing up another 50-points, the index closed within 1.6% of its previous milestone set back in August of 2021. Gains were reasonably broad-based although we still saw over 30% of the index close in the red, the resources again weighed on the index while the growth related stocks were the standout winners e.g. Xero (XRO) +5.3%, Megaport (MP1) +7% and carsales.com (CAR) +3.5% - we are seeing a new trend emerge, if bond yields simply trade sideways then tech stocks extend their recovery. However the current “bounce” can be put into perspective when we consider how some of the individual...
The ASX200 rallied another +0.7% on Tuesday taking the local index to within 2.3% of its 2021 all-time high – our call for a test of 7700-7800 through March & April is starting to feel almost conservative. Gains were broad-based yesterday with over 75% of stocks rallying, only the previously “hot” energy and resources stocks slipped lower while growth stocks regained their mojo with a small degree of gusto as bond yields took a rest, although there was no signs of them falling.
The ASX200 managed to hold on to small gains come 4pm on Monday after grinding lower from our midday highs approaching 7450, the index’s highest level since mid-January. The markets feeling a touch tired having already rallied +5.6% in March but although only 40% of the main index closed up yesterday when the banks and big miners are strong the ASX tends to follow suit e.g. Westpac (WBC) +1.2%, RIO Tinto Ltd (RIO) +1.4% and BHP Group (BHP) +2.3%. Its been this exact impressive performance from these 2 influential sectors...
Last week saw the ASX200 extend its stellar recovery ignoring soaring bond yields in the process, the local market is set to open this morning less than 2.5% below its all-time high yet the RBA is forecast by a number of economists to hike rates from todays 0.1% to 1.0% by Christmas – not big numbers compared to previous decades. However the comparison of Australian 3-year bond yields and the RBA Cash Rate makes a strong argument that we could even be looking at 2% by 2023, the banks aren’t silly just look at their moves over the last week to get a sense of what they believe is on the horizon:
The ASX200 demonstrated its resilience yesterday after managing to eke out a small gain even after the Dow fell over 400-points, we believe the local market will continue to outperform the US over the coming weeks / months. The market peaked at 7399 into the close helped a recovery by the US futures during our day session but by midday the ASX had already confirmed the notable absence of any selling into weakness. The markets now rallied +6.2% from its March low to test 10-week highs, we remain bullish with fresh all-time highs feeling increasingly likely as different sectors of the market take it in turns to drag the index higher.
The ASX200 enjoyed a strong “Hump Day” to close up exactly 0.5% higher registering its highest close since mid-January – it’s now only 3.5% until local stocks challenge their fresh all-time highs. Again we saw the banks perform the heavy lifting with CBA rallying to within 2.6% of its December high, even after trading ex-dividend $2.00 fully franked in February, investors will receive this tasty morsel in the 1st week of May. The IT stocks were the standout over the session rallying 3.5% while the major miners slipped slightly lower, MM believes tech stocks will maintain this outperformance over at least the coming weeks – remember it’s only a bounce for growth stocks after an awful 6-months.
The ASX200 rallied another +0.86% on Tuesday helping it scale fresh 9-week highs, it might surprise many readers to know it’s now less than 4% below its 2021 all-time high – the markets literally had the kitchen sink thrown at it for the last 7-months but only the staunchest bears could argue it hasn’t performed admirably. We only saw 54% of stocks rally yesterday but when the banks remain firm and resources soar the ASX is going higher e.g. BHP Group (BHP) rallied +5.1%, perhaps some of the $10bn landing in shareholders accounts next Monday has already started filtering itself back into the miner.
The ASX200 surrendered early solid gains yesterday as it took direction from the US futures slow meander lower, we finally ended the day down just 0.2%. Overall when compared to the last few weeks it felt like a pretty quiet session with a +2.5% gain by the Tech Sector the main standout on the day while the banks experienced a rare day in the red, less than 3% of the main index moving by over 5% told the tale of the day. Basically after surging +5.5% over just 9 sessions the market needed a well-earned rest and it took one!
Yesterday we waved goodbye to a volatile Q1 which saw the ASX200 initially drop -9.2% in January before slowly but surely recovering all of the losses before managing to end the quarter slightly higher. The highlight of the last 3-months would probably go to the explosive rise in bond yields but there were a few rivals for the mantle including surging commodity prices courtesy of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and supply chain issues which stubbornly aren’t going away, the net result was a market of 2 halves, excuse the cliché, with value stocks like banks and resources rallying at the expense of growth names such as tech and healthcare.
Wednesday saw the ASX200 continue its march towards new all-time highs finally closing up another 50-points, the index closed within 1.6% of its previous milestone set back in August of 2021. Gains were reasonably broad-based although we still saw over 30% of the index close in the red, the resources again weighed on the index while the growth related stocks were the standout winners e.g. Xero (XRO) +5.3%, Megaport (MP1) +7% and carsales.com (CAR) +3.5% - we are seeing a new trend emerge, if bond yields simply trade sideways then tech stocks extend their recovery. However the current “bounce” can be put into perspective when we consider how some of the individual...
The ASX200 rallied another +0.7% on Tuesday taking the local index to within 2.3% of its 2021 all-time high – our call for a test of 7700-7800 through March & April is starting to feel almost conservative. Gains were broad-based yesterday with over 75% of stocks rallying, only the previously “hot” energy and resources stocks slipped lower while growth stocks regained their mojo with a small degree of gusto as bond yields took a rest, although there was no signs of them falling.
The ASX200 managed to hold on to small gains come 4pm on Monday after grinding lower from our midday highs approaching 7450, the index’s highest level since mid-January. The markets feeling a touch tired having already rallied +5.6% in March but although only 40% of the main index closed up yesterday when the banks and big miners are strong the ASX tends to follow suit e.g. Westpac (WBC) +1.2%, RIO Tinto Ltd (RIO) +1.4% and BHP Group (BHP) +2.3%. Its been this exact impressive performance from these 2 influential sectors...
Last week saw the ASX200 extend its stellar recovery ignoring soaring bond yields in the process, the local market is set to open this morning less than 2.5% below its all-time high yet the RBA is forecast by a number of economists to hike rates from todays 0.1% to 1.0% by Christmas – not big numbers compared to previous decades. However the comparison of Australian 3-year bond yields and the RBA Cash Rate makes a strong argument that we could even be looking at 2% by 2023, the banks aren’t silly just look at their moves over the last week to get a sense of what they believe is on the horizon:
The ASX200 demonstrated its resilience yesterday after managing to eke out a small gain even after the Dow fell over 400-points, we believe the local market will continue to outperform the US over the coming weeks / months. The market peaked at 7399 into the close helped a recovery by the US futures during our day session but by midday the ASX had already confirmed the notable absence of any selling into weakness. The markets now rallied +6.2% from its March low to test 10-week highs, we remain bullish with fresh all-time highs feeling increasingly likely as different sectors of the market take it in turns to drag the index higher.
The ASX200 enjoyed a strong “Hump Day” to close up exactly 0.5% higher registering its highest close since mid-January – it’s now only 3.5% until local stocks challenge their fresh all-time highs. Again we saw the banks perform the heavy lifting with CBA rallying to within 2.6% of its December high, even after trading ex-dividend $2.00 fully franked in February, investors will receive this tasty morsel in the 1st week of May. The IT stocks were the standout over the session rallying 3.5% while the major miners slipped slightly lower, MM believes tech stocks will maintain this outperformance over at least the coming weeks – remember it’s only a bounce for growth stocks after an awful 6-months.
The ASX200 rallied another +0.86% on Tuesday helping it scale fresh 9-week highs, it might surprise many readers to know it’s now less than 4% below its 2021 all-time high – the markets literally had the kitchen sink thrown at it for the last 7-months but only the staunchest bears could argue it hasn’t performed admirably. We only saw 54% of stocks rally yesterday but when the banks remain firm and resources soar the ASX is going higher e.g. BHP Group (BHP) rallied +5.1%, perhaps some of the $10bn landing in shareholders accounts next Monday has already started filtering itself back into the miner.
The ASX200 surrendered early solid gains yesterday as it took direction from the US futures slow meander lower, we finally ended the day down just 0.2%. Overall when compared to the last few weeks it felt like a pretty quiet session with a +2.5% gain by the Tech Sector the main standout on the day while the banks experienced a rare day in the red, less than 3% of the main index moving by over 5% told the tale of the day. Basically after surging +5.5% over just 9 sessions the market needed a well-earned rest and it took one!
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