09/03/2026 09:33

Newcastle Coal Futures ($US/MT)

Coal futures were strong last week, underpinned by ongoing Middle East supply disruption concerns.  In the short term they look likely to dance in tandem with oil prices with a test of the $US140/MT looking likely this week, basically a doubling in price from the lows of 2025. In the bigger picture we see ongoing strength in the energy complex as surging AI demand weighs on supply - the likes of oil & gas, coal and uranium are likely to take it in turns to deliver the best performance.

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24/02/2025 09:44

Iron Ore ($US/MT)

Friday saw metals pare weekly gains, but iron ore remained above $US107/MT when many thought it would now already be flirting with the psychological $US100 area.

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20/02/2025 09:32

Iron Ore ($US/MT)

As volatility picks up around the iron ore miners, with both BHP and RIO set to open on the back foot this morning, we keep watching the iron ore price for signs of weakness, but it's holding firm in both the spot market trading around $US106/MT and looking further out the futures curve.

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10/02/2025 09:28

Iron Ore ($US/MT)

Iron Ore (Fe) is a very influential commodity on the ASX, and while analysts are bearish on the bulk commodity, especially in the second half of 2025, it has proven resilient so far.

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18/06/2024 09:21

Global Markets

US equities pushed ever higher overnight, with the S&P500 delivering its 30th record this year despite a small increase in bond yields. US stock market gains have hardly ever been this one-sided as tech companies accelerate higher while other risk assets largely tread water. Stock traders were unwilling to sell in a thin market with Juneteenth National Independence Day being celebrated on the 19th – we could see something similar into the EOFY. It was also encouraging to see default rates retreat in May as the US economy remains solid, and a few rate cuts and corporate America could be cheering.

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03/06/2024 08:58

Commodities

Brent crude edged lower on Friday and last week, although interestingly, the Energy Sector surged +2.5% on Friday night AEST. Oil has been in the same trading range for almost 2 years, and there are no signs this is about to end into Christmas. However, a number of the related ASX oil stocks are starting to find some support, albeit around two-year lows.

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20/05/2024 09:16

Chart of the Week

Iron ore hasn’t received much coverage this year, but it still has a profound impact on the ASX through the likes of BHP and RIO. In line with our positive outlook towards China, we can see the bulk commodity grinding back up towards $US150/MT, which would be bullish for the heavyweight ASX miners.

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22/04/2024 09:09

Commodities

Iron ore has bounced over the last fortnight, enabling Rio Tinto (RIO), for example, to bounce over 8% in a weak market, illustrating that investors have positioned themselves for lower prices of the bulk commodity. With China showing signs of improvement in its embattled economy, we can see further upside in China-facing commodities and stocks.

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18/04/2024 09:05

Global Markets

US stocks fell overnight, ignoring some solid earnings numbers as macroeconomic and geopolitical fears continue to dominate risk assets. United Airlines (UAL US) was a standout winner, surging more than 17% after beating on revenue, but elsewhere, the market had a cautionary feel about it, with rate-sensitive stocks continuing to underperform. The market corrected around 500-points in mid-2023, so far in 2024, we’ve only experienced about half of this; hence, we must be open-minded to a deeper pullback.

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09/04/2024 09:20

As iron ore bounces strongly, what are MM’s favourite big miners?

BHP and RIO are two stocks most closely followed by MM subscribers; just look at Saturday's Q&A. Hence, it caught our attention when one of the leading stories in yesterday's AFR was “Brokers go all in on RIO tipping 20% annual share price jump”, i.e., at MM, we’ve preferred BHP over RIO over recent years. They believe that RIO is better positioned for a boom in industrial metals, and they also think it has a stronger balance sheet. A glance at the two stocks shows they’ve pretty much danced in tandem since COVID, while so far in 2024, BHP is down -12.2% and RIO -10.3%, with iron ore weighing on both miners.

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