The Australian consumer is under pressure from both rising prices (inflation) and interest rates and this is translating to reduced spending at the supermarket, household goods appliances to takeaway food. Theoretically, the often referred to mortgage cliff is about to hurt homeowners hard which could see the average Australian continue to think twice before spending. A couple of pauses by the RBA should help, but we believe discretionary spending is unlikely to improve significantly until people feel more comfortable as to what comes next on the economic front.
Yesterday’s price action reminded us of August 2011 when another credit rating agency S&P downgraded the US debt from AAA to AA+, only days after Washington narrowly averted a default citing heightened political polarization and insufficient steps to right the nation's fiscal outlook.
The retiring Governor Philip Lowe has put the RBA firmly into “data dependant mode” as they monitor inflation, consumer spending, wages and overall business conditions – most of which have been heading in the correct direction over recent months. Our preferred scenario at MM is that both interest rates & bond yields have topped for at least 2023.
The last 1-2 years have been all about the “strong getting stronger” and vice versa but like all good trends, long and short, they eventually turn &/or simply run out of steam. However, we believe it’s very important with today’s theme, which we have touched on previously, to adopt the simple adage of “if in doubt stay out” as not all companies will turn the corner if bond yields for example move lower, some are simply in need of serious repair.
Two out of the 3 major central banks followed the anticipated playbook last week although Japan surprised many as they signalled a move away from easy money, remember what MM said this time last week:” Japan is a harder one to pick with inflation above the BOJ’s 2% target but analysts still expect ongoing support to be injected into the world’s 3rd largest economy – it will until one big day!” – that day arrived sooner than many expected.
When markets are around inflection points it’s important to remain focused on what is unfolding and of course how to invest accordingly, our core market view through the 2H and into 2024 is that bond yields will retrace some of their strong gains over the last 18 months as central banks start to win the battle against inflation
As most probably know by now June’s inflation data was extremely market-friendly coming in at +5.4%, well below the +5.6% median forecast of analysts, but importantly, the quarter-on-quarter run rate was 0.8% (i.e. annualised that’s 3.2%). As would be expected bond yields and the $A fell while the ASX200 rallied ~100 points following the news. The markets are now starting to agree with us, the odds of a hike in July have crashed while there’s an increasing possibility that Official Rates have peaked at 4.1%.
Xi Jinping’s pledge to revive growth is gaining traction even though the latest promises from the Politburo were very skinny on detail/specifics. The sceptics will point to the previous busts of optimism failing to follow through and stocks eventually slipping lower but we believe the tone is the key to the latest rhetoric plus the recognition of the challenges that lie ahead which combine to be bullish in our opinion.
Last week saw a new Lithium Futures contract start trading in China but it was a rocky start for the essential ingredient for current-style electric-vehicle batteries. Contracts for January’24 delivery plunged below 214,150 Yuan on Friday and while paring early losses they still closed -13% lower as the market flags lower prices during that time frame. These new contracts are aiming to provide more transparent lithium pricing while enabling both producers & users to hedge their risk moving forward.
The world’s major central banks meet this week with signs of an improving inflation picture permeating through from recent economic data, and while the ECB and Fed are still largely expected to raise rates by +0.25% it’s the accompanying rhetoric that’s likely to dictate how equities react i.e. are more hikes likely this year or can consumers look forward to an extended pause. With neither institution meeting until September, a hike feels likely this week after both Christine Lagarde & Jerome Powell have stated that inflation remains too high.
Yesterday’s price action reminded us of August 2011 when another credit rating agency S&P downgraded the US debt from AAA to AA+, only days after Washington narrowly averted a default citing heightened political polarization and insufficient steps to right the nation's fiscal outlook.
The retiring Governor Philip Lowe has put the RBA firmly into “data dependant mode” as they monitor inflation, consumer spending, wages and overall business conditions – most of which have been heading in the correct direction over recent months. Our preferred scenario at MM is that both interest rates & bond yields have topped for at least 2023.
The last 1-2 years have been all about the “strong getting stronger” and vice versa but like all good trends, long and short, they eventually turn &/or simply run out of steam. However, we believe it’s very important with today’s theme, which we have touched on previously, to adopt the simple adage of “if in doubt stay out” as not all companies will turn the corner if bond yields for example move lower, some are simply in need of serious repair.
Two out of the 3 major central banks followed the anticipated playbook last week although Japan surprised many as they signalled a move away from easy money, remember what MM said this time last week:” Japan is a harder one to pick with inflation above the BOJ’s 2% target but analysts still expect ongoing support to be injected into the world’s 3rd largest economy – it will until one big day!” – that day arrived sooner than many expected.
When markets are around inflection points it’s important to remain focused on what is unfolding and of course how to invest accordingly, our core market view through the 2H and into 2024 is that bond yields will retrace some of their strong gains over the last 18 months as central banks start to win the battle against inflation
As most probably know by now June’s inflation data was extremely market-friendly coming in at +5.4%, well below the +5.6% median forecast of analysts, but importantly, the quarter-on-quarter run rate was 0.8% (i.e. annualised that’s 3.2%). As would be expected bond yields and the $A fell while the ASX200 rallied ~100 points following the news. The markets are now starting to agree with us, the odds of a hike in July have crashed while there’s an increasing possibility that Official Rates have peaked at 4.1%.
Xi Jinping’s pledge to revive growth is gaining traction even though the latest promises from the Politburo were very skinny on detail/specifics. The sceptics will point to the previous busts of optimism failing to follow through and stocks eventually slipping lower but we believe the tone is the key to the latest rhetoric plus the recognition of the challenges that lie ahead which combine to be bullish in our opinion.
Last week saw a new Lithium Futures contract start trading in China but it was a rocky start for the essential ingredient for current-style electric-vehicle batteries. Contracts for January’24 delivery plunged below 214,150 Yuan on Friday and while paring early losses they still closed -13% lower as the market flags lower prices during that time frame. These new contracts are aiming to provide more transparent lithium pricing while enabling both producers & users to hedge their risk moving forward.
The world’s major central banks meet this week with signs of an improving inflation picture permeating through from recent economic data, and while the ECB and Fed are still largely expected to raise rates by +0.25% it’s the accompanying rhetoric that’s likely to dictate how equities react i.e. are more hikes likely this year or can consumers look forward to an extended pause. With neither institution meeting until September, a hike feels likely this week after both Christine Lagarde & Jerome Powell have stated that inflation remains too high.
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