The Australian Banking Sector has noticeably outperformed its US peers courtesy of the strength of the “Big Four” - the press so often likes to knock our banks but they’ve definitely helped most Australians super over the last few years. The sector is trading on an inexpensive valuation relative to its long-term average but most analysts believe the banks will be close to peak profit for their 1H23 results. At MM we are expecting strong results overall, driven mainly by timing differences on interest rate increases and NIM (net interest margin) tailwinds. Conversely, headwinds we must be aware of are higher funding costs, strong competition for deposits and loans, worse-than-expected bad debts, and ongoing tightening of bank regulation.
The RBA meets on Tuesday with financial markets expecting a 2nd-second consecutive pause following last month’s encouraging inflation data tipped the scales in favour of no change i.e. rates will remain at 3.6%. Even with inflation falling there is an outside chance of another hike but in our opinion, such a move would make no sense as signs are already emerging that the RBA may be winning the inflation battle i.e. after no hike in March why would they raise rates in April when the data on the whole has gone in the right direction?
Post-COVID M&A activity has been extremely strong even as bond yields rallied and the US/Europe suffered a minor “Banking Crisis” courtesy of tumbling bond prices and awful risk management. Private equity was reported to be holding ~$US2 trillion at the start of 2023 and whatever the actual number is when we combine this with large cash reserves in the hands of Australian super funds plus cashed-up fund managers there remains a huge undercurrent of support for stocks.
Travel is enjoying a strong recovery after being basically shut down through COVID with travel bookings proving resilient despite extremely high prices e.g. the Australian Bureau of Statistics just reported that domestic holiday prices increased by 25% in March year on year while international soared an incredible +38%. We are clearly spending our pandemic savings and spreading our wings after being couped up by COVID for over 2 years.
The US market took a hit following a night of disappointing earnings as investors weighed through the numbers to evaluate the strength of corporate America in the face of higher interest rates – heavyweights Microsoft (MSFT US) and Alphabet (GOOGL US) reported after the bell with both being decent beats. The standout losers were First Republic Bank (FRC US) -49%, General Motors (GM US) -4%. and UBS Group AG (UBS US) -4.7% while for the bulls PepsiCo Inc (PEP US) +2.2% beat expectations. Bonds rallied sending the US 2 years back under 4% as recession fears lifted in the wake of weak stocks.
Equities started to consolidate recent gains last week with the ASX200 slipping -0.4% while the S&P500 advanced just +0.1% where reporting season produced plenty of volatility on the stock as opposed to the index level. Bonds have dictated sector performance through 2023 with some extra spice thrown in by the banking crisis which was primarily focused on US regional banks. It’s been a fascinating year so far which we believe will deliver plenty more stock & sector rotation.
In March the ASX200 Property Accumulation Index undeformed the ASX200 by -6.6% leading to today’s question of whether enough is enough. At this stage of the cycle, we believe real estate is all about how bad things can get i.e. if a company is trading well below the value of its asserts by definition a significant degree of bad news is already built into the stock. Analysts are understandably largely preferring companies with funding certainty that are well-positioned for a higher rate environment but there can always be opportunities when the crowd jumps from one ship to another.
A month ago we posed the question “When should we rotate between gold, coal, and lithium – Part 2.” After watching gold slip $US40 like a proverbial knife through butter in the early hours this morning we thought this morning was an ideal time to revisit the sector especially as we hold a chunky 8% of the Flagship Growth Portfolio in Evolution (EVN) and Newcrest (NCM). Although we believe gold is likely to retrace its recent advance short term we believe second-guessing such a move could easily prove costly with regards to portfolio performance i.e. at MM we are investors, not traders.
The Australian market retreated on Tuesday with heavyweights BHP, CBA, and CSL all closing lower during another lacklustre session that saw over 60% of the mainboard retreat but only 2% of the ASX200 moved by over 5%. The markets are enveloped in negative sentiment yet the Australian market is only ~3.5% below its all-time high as investors await the perceived “inevitable correction”. However, as we’ve been saying if too many people are overweight cash and looking to buy dips such moves are usually shallower than expected.
The new Australian Treasurer has inherited a whole pile of debt from the Liberal Party post-COVID and as would be expected he’s looking for pots of gold to replenish the coffers. The oil & gas industry is both cash rich and unpopular as we strive to live in a greener world i.e. it’s a prime candidate trumping the likes of Super and negative gearing in any popularity contest. We believe it’s inevitable the government will plunder their earnings as the huge profits roll in for the industry, yesterday Macquarie Group estimated such an increased tax would devalue heavyweight Woodside (WDS) by 2-5%, but we believe this is already largely priced into the sector.
The RBA meets on Tuesday with financial markets expecting a 2nd-second consecutive pause following last month’s encouraging inflation data tipped the scales in favour of no change i.e. rates will remain at 3.6%. Even with inflation falling there is an outside chance of another hike but in our opinion, such a move would make no sense as signs are already emerging that the RBA may be winning the inflation battle i.e. after no hike in March why would they raise rates in April when the data on the whole has gone in the right direction?
Post-COVID M&A activity has been extremely strong even as bond yields rallied and the US/Europe suffered a minor “Banking Crisis” courtesy of tumbling bond prices and awful risk management. Private equity was reported to be holding ~$US2 trillion at the start of 2023 and whatever the actual number is when we combine this with large cash reserves in the hands of Australian super funds plus cashed-up fund managers there remains a huge undercurrent of support for stocks.
Travel is enjoying a strong recovery after being basically shut down through COVID with travel bookings proving resilient despite extremely high prices e.g. the Australian Bureau of Statistics just reported that domestic holiday prices increased by 25% in March year on year while international soared an incredible +38%. We are clearly spending our pandemic savings and spreading our wings after being couped up by COVID for over 2 years.
The US market took a hit following a night of disappointing earnings as investors weighed through the numbers to evaluate the strength of corporate America in the face of higher interest rates – heavyweights Microsoft (MSFT US) and Alphabet (GOOGL US) reported after the bell with both being decent beats. The standout losers were First Republic Bank (FRC US) -49%, General Motors (GM US) -4%. and UBS Group AG (UBS US) -4.7% while for the bulls PepsiCo Inc (PEP US) +2.2% beat expectations. Bonds rallied sending the US 2 years back under 4% as recession fears lifted in the wake of weak stocks.
Equities started to consolidate recent gains last week with the ASX200 slipping -0.4% while the S&P500 advanced just +0.1% where reporting season produced plenty of volatility on the stock as opposed to the index level. Bonds have dictated sector performance through 2023 with some extra spice thrown in by the banking crisis which was primarily focused on US regional banks. It’s been a fascinating year so far which we believe will deliver plenty more stock & sector rotation.
In March the ASX200 Property Accumulation Index undeformed the ASX200 by -6.6% leading to today’s question of whether enough is enough. At this stage of the cycle, we believe real estate is all about how bad things can get i.e. if a company is trading well below the value of its asserts by definition a significant degree of bad news is already built into the stock. Analysts are understandably largely preferring companies with funding certainty that are well-positioned for a higher rate environment but there can always be opportunities when the crowd jumps from one ship to another.
A month ago we posed the question “When should we rotate between gold, coal, and lithium – Part 2.” After watching gold slip $US40 like a proverbial knife through butter in the early hours this morning we thought this morning was an ideal time to revisit the sector especially as we hold a chunky 8% of the Flagship Growth Portfolio in Evolution (EVN) and Newcrest (NCM). Although we believe gold is likely to retrace its recent advance short term we believe second-guessing such a move could easily prove costly with regards to portfolio performance i.e. at MM we are investors, not traders.
The Australian market retreated on Tuesday with heavyweights BHP, CBA, and CSL all closing lower during another lacklustre session that saw over 60% of the mainboard retreat but only 2% of the ASX200 moved by over 5%. The markets are enveloped in negative sentiment yet the Australian market is only ~3.5% below its all-time high as investors await the perceived “inevitable correction”. However, as we’ve been saying if too many people are overweight cash and looking to buy dips such moves are usually shallower than expected.
The new Australian Treasurer has inherited a whole pile of debt from the Liberal Party post-COVID and as would be expected he’s looking for pots of gold to replenish the coffers. The oil & gas industry is both cash rich and unpopular as we strive to live in a greener world i.e. it’s a prime candidate trumping the likes of Super and negative gearing in any popularity contest. We believe it’s inevitable the government will plunder their earnings as the huge profits roll in for the industry, yesterday Macquarie Group estimated such an increased tax would devalue heavyweight Woodside (WDS) by 2-5%, but we believe this is already largely priced into the sector.
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