Whenever we see triple-digit losses by the ASX investors become nervous and they question if things will get significantly worse before they improve – understandable in today’s environment considering the negativity in the press. One of the macro-economic factors being cited as the reason why stocks are vulnerable at current levels is rising interest rates but at MM we would counter this with a quick look at the correlation between the ASX and the closely watched Australian 3-year bond yield.
The markets love to roll out a saying, almost as much as an acronym, with “sell in May & go away” a definite favourite which is actually supported by solid statistics going back decades. However, this year while the press had a field day with stories on banking failures, looming recessions and a US debt crisis the underlying index has been quiet e.g. this month the ASX200 has traded in a noticeably tight 3.2% trading range, one of the smallest post-COVID. In other words, it may not feel like it to many subscribers but the markets are relatively quiet at the moment.
In April we looked at the Australian Property Sector concluding that we felt that value was returning to the sector following its more than 30% correction since January 2022. We are all aware that whether it be residential, or commercial, that property has struggled for over a year as a result of surging interest rates i.e. not that long ago you could fix a 4-year home loan at 2%, today the same loan is well over 5%.
Markets are expected to open strongly this morning following the welcome news that a US debt default has been averted with yet another last-minute deal, these politicians have the timing of a Hollywood thriller! The announcement wasn’t serenaded with any celebratory fireworks as the tentative agreement to raise the debt ceiling over the next 2-years was clearly an uncomfortable compromise by both parties to get it before Congress for the final tick of approval.
On a day when the ASX fell over -1% the building stocks stood out to us as the main 4 winners in an otherwise especially tough session for the Materials Sector. The Australian building products names haven’t fared as well as some of their US peers but they’ve certainly managed to bounce strongly in 2023 after being smashed more than 50% in some cases, the question we ask today is should we be taking some profit after their strong moves?
US stocks fell again overnight as the debt ceiling debate drags on plus minutes from the recent Fed meeting showed members were split on whether to hike interest rates in June. The dust is settling after the Banking Crisis only to be replaced by the debt impasse, considering what’s been thrown at equities recently they’re holding reasonably well but the upside feels limited whenever the S&P500 tests the 4200 area.
The ASX200 continued to tread water on Tuesday with no fresh clear leads for investors to key off – the EOFY is looming and considering the plethora of worrying news that equities have been exposed to over the last 12 months our “Gut Feel” is the market could squeeze higher although it’s not a move we would position ourselves for especially with US politicians currently bickering around the debt ceiling.
Lithium stocks are arguably the sector which has garnered the most attention from subscribers post-COVID with many stocks surging higher as the EV revolution gathers momentum. Volatility as is often the case with “hot sectors” is ever-present but even after regular 15,20 and 40% pullbacks most of the quality names are close to their all-time highs helped by corporate activity breaking onto the scene.
The Fed has been fixated on inflation over the last year as it hiked Official Interest Rates more than 5% peaking at today’s 5-5.25% target range but we’re finally seeing signs that Jerome Powell et al might stand back and observe the economy for a few months/quarters before raising rates again in 2023:
The ASX200 rallied over +0.5% on Thursday although again we saw some selling into strength with the market relinquishing ~40% of its early morning gains. Under the hood, we saw over 60% of the market advance with Tech names continuing their march higher, this time helped by the bullish sentiment following a positive earnings report from Xero (XRO) which ultimately closed +8.9% higher, the “tech v Miners” elastic band which MM has been discussing at length recently continues to stretch ever higher.
The markets love to roll out a saying, almost as much as an acronym, with “sell in May & go away” a definite favourite which is actually supported by solid statistics going back decades. However, this year while the press had a field day with stories on banking failures, looming recessions and a US debt crisis the underlying index has been quiet e.g. this month the ASX200 has traded in a noticeably tight 3.2% trading range, one of the smallest post-COVID. In other words, it may not feel like it to many subscribers but the markets are relatively quiet at the moment.
In April we looked at the Australian Property Sector concluding that we felt that value was returning to the sector following its more than 30% correction since January 2022. We are all aware that whether it be residential, or commercial, that property has struggled for over a year as a result of surging interest rates i.e. not that long ago you could fix a 4-year home loan at 2%, today the same loan is well over 5%.
Markets are expected to open strongly this morning following the welcome news that a US debt default has been averted with yet another last-minute deal, these politicians have the timing of a Hollywood thriller! The announcement wasn’t serenaded with any celebratory fireworks as the tentative agreement to raise the debt ceiling over the next 2-years was clearly an uncomfortable compromise by both parties to get it before Congress for the final tick of approval.
On a day when the ASX fell over -1% the building stocks stood out to us as the main 4 winners in an otherwise especially tough session for the Materials Sector. The Australian building products names haven’t fared as well as some of their US peers but they’ve certainly managed to bounce strongly in 2023 after being smashed more than 50% in some cases, the question we ask today is should we be taking some profit after their strong moves?
US stocks fell again overnight as the debt ceiling debate drags on plus minutes from the recent Fed meeting showed members were split on whether to hike interest rates in June. The dust is settling after the Banking Crisis only to be replaced by the debt impasse, considering what’s been thrown at equities recently they’re holding reasonably well but the upside feels limited whenever the S&P500 tests the 4200 area.
The ASX200 continued to tread water on Tuesday with no fresh clear leads for investors to key off – the EOFY is looming and considering the plethora of worrying news that equities have been exposed to over the last 12 months our “Gut Feel” is the market could squeeze higher although it’s not a move we would position ourselves for especially with US politicians currently bickering around the debt ceiling.
Lithium stocks are arguably the sector which has garnered the most attention from subscribers post-COVID with many stocks surging higher as the EV revolution gathers momentum. Volatility as is often the case with “hot sectors” is ever-present but even after regular 15,20 and 40% pullbacks most of the quality names are close to their all-time highs helped by corporate activity breaking onto the scene.
The Fed has been fixated on inflation over the last year as it hiked Official Interest Rates more than 5% peaking at today’s 5-5.25% target range but we’re finally seeing signs that Jerome Powell et al might stand back and observe the economy for a few months/quarters before raising rates again in 2023:
The ASX200 rallied over +0.5% on Thursday although again we saw some selling into strength with the market relinquishing ~40% of its early morning gains. Under the hood, we saw over 60% of the market advance with Tech names continuing their march higher, this time helped by the bullish sentiment following a positive earnings report from Xero (XRO) which ultimately closed +8.9% higher, the “tech v Miners” elastic band which MM has been discussing at length recently continues to stretch ever higher.
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