Many subscribers may be surprised to learn that gold outperformed US stocks in 2024. In US dollars, year-to-date, gold has surged +25% while the S&P500 is up +18%—not too shabby by either! The prospect of declining interest rates has been a major driving force for both markets, with gold also enjoying strong buying out of China as the Yuan and property prices fell. However, markets never go up in straight lines forever, and we are conscious that “a rest” could be constructive for gold moving into 2025, i.e. similar to the pullback in mid-2023.
Official data released on Saturday showed that China's new home prices fell at their fastest pace in more than nine years in August, with economic stimulus failing to deliver a meaningful recovery in the country's property sector. New home prices fell 5.3% YoY, the fastest pace since May 2015, compared with a 4.9% slide in July. In monthly terms, new home prices fell for the 14th straight month, down 0.7%, matching a dip in July. Much to Beijing’s chagrin, China's property market continues to struggle with heavily indebted developers, unfinished apartments, and declining buyer confidence, weighing on the overall financial system and endangering the year's 5% economic growth target.
Many investors expected the US Presidential debate to be the focus this week, but Vladamir Putin stole the thunder from Harris and Trump. The Russian President is considering restrictions on uranium, titanium, and nickel exports - he is playing a tough “game of chicken” because Russia needs the money but is keen to limit sanctions by the West due to the war with Ukraine.
Overseas stocks experienced a mixed night, and European indices delivered varied performances. The EURO STOXX 50 advanced 0.3%, while the FTSE fell -0.15%. The US market delivered an impressive turnaround after initially plunging on a higher-than-expected inflation print - US August CPI +0.3% MoM versus 0.2% expected. Stocks initially tumbled after the CPI but investors chased shares of mega-cap tech and semiconductor names in afternoon trading with heavyweight Nvidia (NVDA US) closing up +8.2%.
A weak session for the US banks, not something we’ve seen on the local bourse this year, dragged the Dow lower overnight but not in any meaningful manner. The American banking sector has been consolidating its strong advance from its 2023 low around current levels for the last six months, albeit in a volatile manner. Following the comments from JPM, a re-test of the August lows wouldn’t surprise; around 8% lower. This is not a great read-through for the ASX banks, which are trading at multi-year highs.
A quick chemistry lesson: The rare earth elements (REE) are seventeen metallic elements, which are categorised into Light Rare Earths (lanthanum to samarium) and Heavy Rare Earths (europium to lutetium). Rare-earth elements (REE) are necessary for more than 200 products across various applications, especially high-tech consumer products, such as mobile phones, computer hard drives, electric and hybrid vehicles, flat-screen monitors and televisions. The REE market is valued at $US6.0 bn in 2024 and is projected to increase to $US10.9 bn by 2029.
US stocks were hit on Friday night after a weak Jobs Report increased fears that the Fed is behind the curve with interest rate cuts. This leads to an increased chance of their economy slipping into a recession, as opposed to the “Goldilocks Scenario,” which investors have embraced through most of 2024. It reminds us of going back to school and the dreaded Calculus, particularly a sinusoidal wave with the top being the “Goldilocks Scenario” and the bottom a recession. US equities have been ignoring several leading indicators over recent months, but the bears came home to roost on Friday night.
The local Financials index looks great at first glance, but it contains the “Big Four” banks, which have been charging ahead since late 2023. When we look under the hood of the diversified financials, it’s been a mixed year for the sector, which was exemplified by the 11% drop by Challenger (CGF) yesterday following Apollo's $530mn sell-down. In general, traditional fund managers have struggled while insurers and more new-age stocks have rallied. This morning, we’ve looked at three of our top picks as we consider what/where to increase exposure to the space into a period of market weakness.
The ASX200 was hammered yesterday, losing over 150-points and retracing over 30% of August's recovery in one fell swoop – a classic case of up by the stairs and down by the elevator. Losses were broad-based, with all 11 sectors and over 90% of stocks closing lower, a bad day at the office being an understatement. The influential banks and resources followed the negative lead from the US, with all eyes now turning to Friday’s US Jobs report; if it comes in poor, we may be in store for a repeat of early August as recession fears mount. US credit markets are already pricing in one 0.25% rate cut this month (with the possibility of 0.5% in play) and a full 1% by Christmas.
Overnight equities endured a tough session. The EURO STOXX 50, which led European bourses, fell 1.2%, reversing early small gains as US weakness weighed on sentiment. The tech-based NASDAQ tumbled over 3%, dragging the S&P500 down 2.1%, with Nvidia’s sharp ~10% drop setting the stage for an already jumpy market capable of swinging dramatically on any unfavourable economic data. This morning, our first thought was whether September would start in a volatile fashion similar to August, it feels like another wave of recession fears is just one major piece of economic data away with non-farm payrolls due on Friday a very important read.
Official data released on Saturday showed that China's new home prices fell at their fastest pace in more than nine years in August, with economic stimulus failing to deliver a meaningful recovery in the country's property sector. New home prices fell 5.3% YoY, the fastest pace since May 2015, compared with a 4.9% slide in July. In monthly terms, new home prices fell for the 14th straight month, down 0.7%, matching a dip in July. Much to Beijing’s chagrin, China's property market continues to struggle with heavily indebted developers, unfinished apartments, and declining buyer confidence, weighing on the overall financial system and endangering the year's 5% economic growth target.
Many investors expected the US Presidential debate to be the focus this week, but Vladamir Putin stole the thunder from Harris and Trump. The Russian President is considering restrictions on uranium, titanium, and nickel exports - he is playing a tough “game of chicken” because Russia needs the money but is keen to limit sanctions by the West due to the war with Ukraine.
Overseas stocks experienced a mixed night, and European indices delivered varied performances. The EURO STOXX 50 advanced 0.3%, while the FTSE fell -0.15%. The US market delivered an impressive turnaround after initially plunging on a higher-than-expected inflation print - US August CPI +0.3% MoM versus 0.2% expected. Stocks initially tumbled after the CPI but investors chased shares of mega-cap tech and semiconductor names in afternoon trading with heavyweight Nvidia (NVDA US) closing up +8.2%.
A weak session for the US banks, not something we’ve seen on the local bourse this year, dragged the Dow lower overnight but not in any meaningful manner. The American banking sector has been consolidating its strong advance from its 2023 low around current levels for the last six months, albeit in a volatile manner. Following the comments from JPM, a re-test of the August lows wouldn’t surprise; around 8% lower. This is not a great read-through for the ASX banks, which are trading at multi-year highs.
A quick chemistry lesson: The rare earth elements (REE) are seventeen metallic elements, which are categorised into Light Rare Earths (lanthanum to samarium) and Heavy Rare Earths (europium to lutetium). Rare-earth elements (REE) are necessary for more than 200 products across various applications, especially high-tech consumer products, such as mobile phones, computer hard drives, electric and hybrid vehicles, flat-screen monitors and televisions. The REE market is valued at $US6.0 bn in 2024 and is projected to increase to $US10.9 bn by 2029.
US stocks were hit on Friday night after a weak Jobs Report increased fears that the Fed is behind the curve with interest rate cuts. This leads to an increased chance of their economy slipping into a recession, as opposed to the “Goldilocks Scenario,” which investors have embraced through most of 2024. It reminds us of going back to school and the dreaded Calculus, particularly a sinusoidal wave with the top being the “Goldilocks Scenario” and the bottom a recession. US equities have been ignoring several leading indicators over recent months, but the bears came home to roost on Friday night.
The local Financials index looks great at first glance, but it contains the “Big Four” banks, which have been charging ahead since late 2023. When we look under the hood of the diversified financials, it’s been a mixed year for the sector, which was exemplified by the 11% drop by Challenger (CGF) yesterday following Apollo's $530mn sell-down. In general, traditional fund managers have struggled while insurers and more new-age stocks have rallied. This morning, we’ve looked at three of our top picks as we consider what/where to increase exposure to the space into a period of market weakness.
The ASX200 was hammered yesterday, losing over 150-points and retracing over 30% of August's recovery in one fell swoop – a classic case of up by the stairs and down by the elevator. Losses were broad-based, with all 11 sectors and over 90% of stocks closing lower, a bad day at the office being an understatement. The influential banks and resources followed the negative lead from the US, with all eyes now turning to Friday’s US Jobs report; if it comes in poor, we may be in store for a repeat of early August as recession fears mount. US credit markets are already pricing in one 0.25% rate cut this month (with the possibility of 0.5% in play) and a full 1% by Christmas.
Overnight equities endured a tough session. The EURO STOXX 50, which led European bourses, fell 1.2%, reversing early small gains as US weakness weighed on sentiment. The tech-based NASDAQ tumbled over 3%, dragging the S&P500 down 2.1%, with Nvidia’s sharp ~10% drop setting the stage for an already jumpy market capable of swinging dramatically on any unfavourable economic data. This morning, our first thought was whether September would start in a volatile fashion similar to August, it feels like another wave of recession fears is just one major piece of economic data away with non-farm payrolls due on Friday a very important read.
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